If you love MMA, you’re probably stoked for UFC 194 on Saturday. The undisputed UFC Featherweight Title matchup between champion Jose Aldo ($9,500) and interim belt holder “The Notorious” Conor McGregor ($9,900) is perhaps the most anticipated fight in the promotion’s history.
You may even have a rooting interest or a fighter you’re leaning toward in the way of a prediction. That’s also natural. Despite the interest many have in the main event, it seems inadvisable to use a lineup spot on either man.
If pressed to draft one in a DraftKings contest, McGregor would be the most logical pick.
This logic isn’t rooted in a prediction that the Notorious one will win. In fact, it’s quite the contrary. The advice is born from an understanding of DraftKings MMA scoring and the fighter’s likely path to victory.
A McGregor victory would probably rack up more fantasy points. If he wins, the end is probably going to come quickly. That means the people who are biased or bold enough to pick the outspoken Irishman will cash in. That explains why McGregor averages 100.6 fantasy points per fight, compared to 74.7 for Aldo, per DraftKings.
If Aldo wins, it’ll probably be on the strength of his jiu-jitsu skills and overall well-roundedness as a fighter. That type of victory can take more time to materialize. In DraftKings MMA, swiftness of victory equals more points, and more points lead to more money.
Though Aldo is my pick to win, McGregor‘s skills and presence create enough doubt to deter a recommendation to draft the Brazilian—even at his reasonable DK salary. His potentially modest point total in victory is the other determent.
How can this lack of aggressiveness toward the main event be prosperous in a DK contest?
Take a look at the optimal picks for UFC 194. You’ll see there are more than enough affordable options to choose from aside from the compelling main event.
John Makdessi ($10,300)
Despite coming off a TKO loss in his last fight to Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone in May, John “The Bull” Makdessi is still a smart pick on Saturday against Yancy Medeiros.
Few fighters in the lightweight division have the striking prowess to get the best of Makdessi on the feet. Medeiros‘ past fight strategies suggests he may try his hand at trading with the Bull. Medeiros lost his last fight as well, as he was overwhelmed and knocked out by a rejuvenated Dustin Poirier in June.
He did go into the fight with Poirier on the back of two consecutive wins by submission, but Medeiros seems to prefer to stand and fight. According to FightMetric, the 28-year-old has never attempted a takedown in any UFC fight. The same can be said for Makdessi.
While Medeiros will enjoy a sizable two-inch height and seven-inch reach advantage, Makdessi‘s boxing is excellent and should provide him the angles to circumvent the length disparity. He employs solid head movement and it has led to a higher striking defense rating (72 percent to 55) than his Hawaiian opponent.
In a fight that seems destined to end in a stoppage, Makdessi is the fighter to draft.
Kevin Lee ($10,800)
Drafting Kevin Lee should be the biggest no-brainer pick in the event. The 23-year-old Grand Rapids, Michigan, native known as the Motown Phenom is one of the UFC’s brightest young stars and a rising threat in the lightweight division.
He’ll be opposed by veteran Brazilian Leonardo Santos. Lee’s best fighting attribute is his wrestling. Those skills are augmented by his speed and explosiveness. Santos has demonstrated good takedown defense in his career (86 percent), but he’s yet to face a wrestler as talented as Lee.
Santos doesn’t bring a ton of striking pop into the Octagon. He has just one win by KO in his career, per Sherdog.com. He is an accomplished submissions fighter with nine wins via tapout.
As long as Lee is patient and disciplined once he gets the fight to the ground, he should pile up significant strikes en route to a TKO victory, or a lopsided unanimous-decision win that includes a ton of points for his ground-and-pound work.
Gunnar Nelson ($9,300)
The most undervalued fighter on the card is Gunnar Nelson. His opponent, Demian Maia ($10,100), is worthy of respect, but he is a one-dimensional fighter.
Beyond his world-class submission skills, Maia doesn’t do anything else above average in the Octagon. It just so happens that he’s able to win because he’s usually so much better than his opponents in that.
Nelson is an exception. His grappling is almost at Maia’s level, and his striking is leagues ahead of the Brazilian’s. That was clear in Nelson’s last fight against the powerful Brandon Thatch.
A one-two combination sent Thatch to the canvas, and Nelson pounced on him to secure the submission win via rear-naked choke. Striking wasn’t always a major part of Nelson’s repertoire, but it’s clear he has focused his development on that aspect of his game.
Look for him to utilize his striking en route to a unanimous-decision victory over Maia.
Jacare Souza ($10,200)
Yoel Romero is a scary finisher with great athleticism, wrestling technique and raw power, but he doesn’t stand much of a chance against a Brazilian jiu-jitsu master like Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza.
Jacare isn’t a freak athlete like Romero. However, it’s not as if Souza is a stiff, or a fighter who is physically weaker than most in his division. What he lacks in freakish athleticism, he more than compensates for with flawless technique and relentless pursuit of submission wins.
There will be some initial danger for Souza when Romero is fresh. Romero’s power will be at its most dangerous in the first round. After a few scrambles, he has shown the tendency to tire in his bouts and to get careless with his defense.
Because of this, Jacare will get the bout to the ground at some point. When he does, he will show his superiority on the mat as he wears down Romero. A stoppage win via submission or TKO from ground-and-pound strikes is a likely result for Souza.
Luke Rockhold ($9,400)
Few champions have proved their mettle as much as middleweight titleholder Chris Weidman. He’s beaten Anderson Silva twice, handled Lyoto Machida and mauled Vitor Belfort.
Even with those impressive victories under his belt, Weidman has never faced an opponent as good or well-rounded as Luke Rockhold. The challenger is better at this stage of his career than Silva, Machida and Belfort were when they faced Weidman.
His athleticism and creativity as a striker is on par, or superior to what Machida brought to the Octagon, but his ground game is going to be the aspect of his arsenal that surprises people.
It shouldn’t be news, considering Rockhold has won his last two fights by submission over Machida and Michael Bisping. Most give Weidman a huge edge on the ground.
UFC bantamweight Chris Holdsworth was one of several fighters and trainers asked to pick a winner of the fight. He seemed to be among those expecting Weidman to have his way on the ground. Per Brett Okamoto of ESPN.com, Holdsworth said:
My heart is telling me Weidman. I think Rockhold is a very well-rounded fighter who poses a threat everywhere, but I think Weidman has better wrestling and his ground game is tremendous. A lot of people underestimate his grappling and, as you can see, his standup has been looking better each fight. He knocked out Anderson Silva and you can say it was a fluke, but he’s got knockout power.
Perhaps it is Rockhold’s ground game that is being underestimated. Weidman is very respected for his wrestling prowess—and rightfully so—but Rockhold is strong and skilled enough to find an opening for his high-level submission game. He won’t simply stay on the mat while Weidman pounds on him the way Belfort did.
Rockhold isn’t just going to beat Weidman, he’s going to shock people with how easy he makes it look. Mark Rockhold down for a third-round win by submission.
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