If the UFC still included catchy titles after its pay-per-view offerings, UFC 196 might simply be titled, UFC 196: Welcome to the McGregor Show.
The hype for the card has centered around the Irishman. Even with his lightweight title shot against Rafael dos Anjos scrapped due to injury, The Notorious’ welterweight bout against Nate Diaz has remained front and center.
It’s even overshadowing a quality championship bout between new women’s bantamweight champion Holly Holm and perennial contender Miesha Tate. According to Mike Bohn of MMAjunkie, this card marks the first time since UFC 51 in 2005 where a non-title fight will have main event status over a title fight.
Here’s a look at the main card with predictions for each of the fights and a closer look at the main attraction.
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McGregor vs. Diaz Odds
When Conor McGregor steps into the cage at UFC 196, he will be doing so in a weight class 25 pounds heavier than where he last fought. He’ll also face an opponent that he’s only had 10 days to train for.
Vegas is apparently not shaken by those factors. According to the latest odds from Odds Shark, the featherweight champion is a sizable favorite in his bout against Diaz.
McGregor has been known to make quick work of his opponents, especially with his latest win over Jose Aldo for the featherweight title lasting just 13 seconds. With that in mind, Odds Shark also reports that the odds of McGregor finishing the fight by (T)KO are at a favorable 20-53.
The Hype
Nate Diaz was the perfect opponent to step in on short notice to fight McGregor. Obviously, the matchup no longer has the same stakes, but the intrigue and buildup may have increased.
McGregor has made his name by matching incredible skills inside the cage with a mouth that rarely stops talking outside it. Diaz might not have the same flawless track record inside the cage, but he can certainly claim to keep up with McGregor in the trash-talk department.
Despite the short notice, the two have already given the UFC enough sound bites to have plenty of promotional materials prepared, as evidenced by this teaser for the UFC Countdown show, as shared by UFC president Dana White:
Of course, no McGregor pre-fight hype would be complete without Mystic Mac making a prediction as to how and when he will be victorious, and McGregor called his shot at the UFC 196 press conference, per Damon Martin of Fox Sports:
End of the first, I feel he will be put away. I respect Nate. Don’t get me wrong. I do respect Nate. There’s a lot of (expletives) in this game and he is not one of them. Don’t get me wrong, there’s a respect there between us but it’s business in there and business is business.
How Diaz responds to McGregor‘s trash talk will be an interesting storyline watch unfold. Usually it is Diaz who can gain an advantage by getting in his opponent’s head. It isn’t often that an opponent tries to do the exact same thing to him.
Prediction
Lost in the buildup between two of the UFC’s biggest personalities is the fact that this is an intriguing fight stylistically.
First, there’s the obvious size challenge for McGregor. The featherweight champion was already planning a move up to the 155-pound division, but this fight is taking place 15 pounds above that mark.
Frankie Edgar—who has fought at both lightweight and featherweight—believes that the size issue could be big for McGregor, who is used to having a reach advantage.
“(Diaz) has got great length. Conor does such a good job because he’s always the longer guy,” Edgar said, per Martin of Fox Sports. “He cuts a boatload of weight to be the big guy and now he’s not going to be the big guy.”
Edgar believes that Diaz‘s length, paired with a good chin and a penchant for throwing a high volume of strikes, makes the man from Stockton, California, a live dog in this bout.
While Diaz‘s pressure and size will certainly be a part of his game plan, that train of thought largely undersells McGregor as a counterpuncher.
The Notorious has been known to dial up pressure of his own to fold opponents who can’t strike with him. However, his win over Jose Aldo revealed another side to his style. He’s extremely adept at counterstriking. McGregor‘s knockout win over the reigning featherweight champion was not based upon luck, as a perfectly timed counter to Aldo’s looping punch ended the king’s reign.
If McGregor was able to pick off the most accomplished featherweight in the sport, one has to think he’s going to crack Diaz eventually. This fight should provide some memorable moments while it lasts, but with Diaz throwing so often, there will be openings for McGregor to expose.
Prediction: McGregor by 1st-round TKO
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