UFC 196 was supposed to be the Conor McGregor show. The featherweight champion was offered the one-of-a-kind opportunity to step up to the lightweight division and become the first man to hold titles in two different weight classes. It’s something the UFC has never done before (even with BJ Penn vs. Georges St-Pierre 2, the expectation was for Penn to vacate his lightweight title upon winning), and it’s something that was sure to anger a substantial number of fans and fighters.
When 155-pound champion Rafael dos Anjos pulled out of his fight with a broken foot, though, the UFC and McGregor took on an enormous risk. Instead of putting the epic superfight on ice until UFC 200, the company, and McGregor as well, rolled the dice by finding a short-notice replacement.
The man to step in, of course, was Nate Diaz.
The longtime fan favorite was chosen by the UFC over a slew of other names, and seemed to be the perfect choice due to his substantial following and his inconsistent performances in the cage. While Diaz vs. McGregor made sense on paper, it was supposed to be something of a tune-up fight for McGregor.
Things didn’t go that way, and for reasons that people have been predicting for years.
The path to that upset was a fun one for neutral fans. The first round, for the most part, was the kind of fight McGregor loved. The speed difference was profound as the Irishman darted in and out with his left hand and suffered no serious repercussions in the process. Though Diaz is a formidable boxer in his own right, he didn’t seem to have an answer to McGregor’s squirrely movement and hit the stool bruised and bloodied.
When the horn sounded for the second round, though, a switch seemed to flip in the featherweight champ’s head. McGregor just wasn’t as quick. He wasn’t as light on his feet. His breathing seemed to be a bit heavy.
That changed things in a hurry. Diaz found his jab and popped McGregor with it repeatedly. While SMcGregor’s hands were still lightning-fast, his feet seemed to betray him. He would plod forward and swap punches with Diaz until Diaz caught him flat-footed following an exchange.
A 1-2 combination turned into another, and McGregor was visibly wounded. Diaz stalked forward and continued to pour on punishment. Eventually, McGregor shot for a desperation takedown, which Diaz stuffed with ease and turned into back mount position. That, shortly after, would turn into a rear-naked choke tap.
So what, exactly, went wrong for McGregor? Something we’ve been expecting for a while now.
Over the last few years, McGregor has gradually transformed from a surgeon to a sniper. The McGregor that beat Marcus Brimage at UFC on Fuel TV 9 was a surgeon. He flowed around the cage, landed his shots, wounded him and eventually went for the jugular.
It was measured, methodical and smart.
The McGregor of 2015, though, is not measured. Since his fight against Dennis Siver at UFC Fight Night 59 has thrown everything behind every punch.
Obviously, that worked out just fine for a while. Siver crumbled under the pressure, Chad Mendes wilted and Jose Aldo was practically assassinated. That approach has been labeled as “arrogant” or “cocky” by many, but the only difference between arrogance and brilliance are the outcomes.
McGregor came out, perhaps, over-confident in this fight. He put the proverbial pedal to the metal with his aggression and, as he started gaining momentum, began throwing spinning kicks and started showboating in exchanges. He acknowledged as much at the post-fight presser. Via BloodyElbow:
So is this the end of the McGregor Era? Was he “exposed” as a “hype job?” No. Absolutely not.
While it’s a tired saying, this loss is almost certainly a learning experience for the still-reigning featherweight champ. Despite the loss, McGregor still has everything he needs to be a dominant champion, still has what it takes to become a two-division (or maybe three-division) champion, and most certainly has what it takes to beat Diaz.
The only difference between McGregor’s win over Siver and his loss here is Diaz’s resiliency. McGregor applied relentless pressure in both fights and landed left hands by the dozen. Siver was felled by them. Diaz was not.
The plan for McGregor going forward should be to try and combine the punching power of today’s McGregor with the patience and elegance of yesteryear’s. If he can do so, he won’t just recapture his mythical status, he may become the legend he was meant to be.
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