UFC 202 will be anchored by one of the most anticipated rematches in the organization’s history when Conor McGregor attempts to earn some redemption against Nate Diaz in the main event.
The narrative behind the first matchup is well known at this point.
The stage was set for McGregor to launch himself into the pantheon of great fighters. With the featherweight title in tow, he was set to fight Rafael Dos Anjos for the lightweight title. Then, Dos Anjos was pulled due to injury and replaced by Diaz on short notice at the welterweight limit of 170 pounds.
All of a sudden, McGregor‘s stock depended on beating an entirely different challenge. After a solid first round, the Irishman fell behind Diaz‘s blistering pace and ultimately succumbed to a rear-naked choke before the second-round bell rang.
Now just what will happen with both fighters getting a chance at a full training camp is one of the most intriguing questions in the MMA landscape, and we’re about to get some answers.
How Conor McGregor Got Here
Detractors of McGregor will say that he got to this point with his mouth. He’s the most interesting character in the game right now and knows how to sell a fight.
But that would undersell the fact that McGregor is a phenomenal fighter.
Since coming to the UFC, The Notorious has lived up to his moniker. Time after time in the featherweight division, he has predicted the demise of an opponent and followed through in the cage.
Dustin Poirier? Gone before the first round ended.
Chad Mendes? Finished just before the second round came to an end, as predicted.
Jose Aldo? Starched in 13 seconds. Just like he called it.
Mystic Mac’s penchant for calling his shot got him in trouble against Nate Diaz, though. McGregor predicted that he would knock out Diaz in the first round, which led to a strategy that ultimately gassed him. That led to his demise in the second as Diaz‘s well-known cardio kicked in while McGregor faded.
This time, McGregor is adjusting his prediction, per Shaun Al-Shatti of MMA Fighting:
This time, I’m still going to march forward, I’m still going to press him, I’m still going to bust him. There’s just going to be a lot more in my tank. I’m just going to be a lot more prepared for a man who can stay in there with me, but even still, I struggle to give him past round three. If I was to make a prediction, which I will right now, I believe I will repay the favor and KO him inside the second round.
Living up to that prediction is going to be a tall order for McGregor. The same pitfalls exist in this matchup. Even with a full training camp to focus on Diaz, his opponent is still the rangier, more experienced fighter with great cardio and a strong submission game.
If McGregor lives up to his prediction, his legacy will receive a huge boost.
How Nate Diaz Got Here
Much like McGregor, Diaz‘s reputation as a trash-talker precedes his reputation as a fighter.
The 31-year-old has been fighting in the UFC since 2007, when he won The Ultimate Fighter 5. In all those years, he’s only had one title shot and has a record of 14-8. At face value, that’s not much of a record, yet here he is still getting big fights.
Why? Entertainment value.
Diaz brings the heat both inside and outside the cage, and he knows it. He talked about his role as an entertainer, via the UFC’s Twitter account:
Diaz is adept at getting under his opponent’s skin and then capitalizing on that frustration. Whether it be from his talk or his penchant for striking from distance and walking through punishment, he’s great at getting fighters to be desperate and then countering with consistent boxing or a submission on the ground.
McGregor isn’t the only man he’s submitted. Diaz has an amazing nine wins by submission in his career, including wins over Marcus Davis, Takanori Gomi and Jim Miller.
Entertainment value is what got Diaz a shot at McGregor despite a 2-3 record in the five fights leading up to the bout, but his skills as a fighter are what earned him the win in the first fight.
In the rematch, Diaz won’t need to change what he is. He’ll just need to do it again.
Prediction
Nate Diaz isn’t some kind of mythological beast. He’s beatable. As previously mentioned, he has eight losses in the UFC and has never reached the championship level.
However, if you look at his losses, a definite type of fighter emerges as his foil: strong wrestlers who can control Diaz in the clinch and on the ground:
That’s simply not McGregor‘s game, which is why he runs into trouble in this matchup. McGregor is already an all-timer as a featherweight. His astronomical rise to champion and dethroning of Jose Aldo have already sealed that distinction before he even hit 30.
The question is whether his ability can transcend weight class. As great a champion as he is, he’s combating a size disadvantage, the specter of a loss against his opponent and an apparent talent disparity on the ground.
McGregor can win. His power might be a lesser weapon at 170 pounds, but it’s still a weapon. He’s still a technical marvel when it comes to his timing and positioning.
But the fact that he’s still calling his own shot for an early knockout is a troubling sign. McGregor‘s path to victory entails drawing Diaz into a technical kickboxing match. Going for the knockout often means forsaking that for a brawler’s approach.
That will not end well for the featherweight champion.
He might drag it out longer this time—and for the sake of everyone who got to witness what was an awesome first fight, let’s hope he does—but it’s hard to shake the feeling that the stylistic matchup is simply too much for him to overcome at this point.
Prediction: Diaz via fourth-round submission.
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