The UFC went all out on making the organization’s New York debut a memorable one.
Now fans get to reap the benefits.
The word “stacked” gets thrown around a lot to describe a UFC card, but this one truly lives up to the adjective.
Not one or two, but three belts will be on the line in a six-fight main card that should challenge UFC 200 as the most well-put-together card of all time.
Here’s a look at the complete lineup with predictions for all three of the title fights:
Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Aside from being the most difficult to pronounce championship fight in UFC history, this should also be an exciting way to kick off the string of title shots.
Carla Esparza was the original champion of the women’s strawweight division, but Joanna Jedrzejczyk spent very little time in taking it from her and has been the dominant champion ever since. She’s already strung together three title defenses, with her last one coming over rival Claudia Gadelha.
With Gadelha now out of the way, Jedrzejczyk can go back to cleaning out the division, and Kowalkiewicz happens to be the next in line.
The champion doesn’t just have eyes set on winning this one, though. She envisions ending her career with an unblemished record as one of the greatest of all time, per Shaun Al-Shatti of MMA Fighting:
I want to be a legend. I want people to talk about me in five, 10 years, 20 years, that I was one of the best female MMA fighters, that I was one of the best UFC champions in the world back in the day. This is what I want. I just want to retire as an undefeated champion. This is my goal. This is my dream, and I want to make this dream become (real) life.
Kowalkiewicz might be just another bump in the road for the champion, but she could be the kryptonite that she hasn’t found yet.
The Polish contender has an undefeateed record of her own heading into this fight. The muay thai specialist might be the only fighter the champion has fought that can claim to even be close to being as polished on the feet.
Both like to set a blistering pace in the stand-up game. Jedrzejczyk averages 6.36 significant strikes per minute while Kowalkiewicz isn’t far off at 5.98, according to FightMetric.
The difference is likely to be the Joanna Champion’s defense. Not only does she rock opponents with her volume, she does so in a way that she is still hard to hit. She only absorbs 2.32 significant strikes per minute.
Kowalkiewicz is much more likely to open herself up to counters with her attack as she averages 3.87 absorbed strikes.
Expect that gap in defense to be the difference as the fight wears on.
Prediction: Jedrzejczyk by 4th-round TKO
Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson
It isn’t very often that a challenger who has never held a UFC title before comes into a bout as the favorite over the reigning champion.
Such is the case for Stephen Thompson when he goes to challenge for Tyron Woodley‘s belt in the co-main event.
According to Odds Shark, Thompson comes in as a 49-100 favorite, while the comeback on Woodley sits at 33-20.
That’s because it’s easy to write a narrative that dismisses Woodley as the champion of 170. While he’s always been an explosive fighter, his first-round knockout victory over Robbie Lawler can easily be looked at as the culmination of all the wars that Lawler has been involved in over the years. We knew his chin couldn’t last forever, and it finally buckled.
That’s not fair to Woodley, but his resume leading up to his title shot was marked by a split decision win over Kelvin Gastelum and almost a year-and-a-half layoff.
Meanwhile, Thompson has proved that he’s the most dangerous contender at welterweight in that time span. He added three wins to his seven-fight streak against top competition with knockout victories over Jake Ellenberger and Johny Hendricks and a decision win over Rory MacDonald.
Thompson’s karate-based striking game is going to be hard for Woodley to figure out. T-Wood likes to close the distance quickly so that he can throw bombs, but Wonderboy is generally light on his feet and ready to cut off angles quickly.
Still, this fight comes down to Wonderboy’s ability to avoid the bomb from Woodley and pick him apart at distance.
According to Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics, Woodley has the best knockdown rate on the card:
That might not matter, though. Thompson has shown his ability to stifle powerful strikers in Hendricks and MacDonald recently. Look for him to patiently pick Woodley apart and come away with a late stoppage.
Prediction: Thompson by 5th-round TKO
Eddie Alvarez vs. Conor McGregor
This is truly a New York-sized main event.
Conor McGregor is the most intriguing fighter in the UFC, and he’s looking to do something that would cement his legacy as one of the best fighters in the history of the organization. Holding two belts would be an accomplishment that puts him in rarefied territory.
Doing that won’t be easy, though. Alvarez has been criminally underrated in his time with the UFC. A loss to Donald Cerrone in his promotional debut took the steam out of the Alvarez hype train, but he’s since recovered to go on a three-fight win streak that included shocking the world with a first-round finish of former champion Rafael dos Anjos.
McGregor is a much different challenge than Dos Anjos, though.
While Dos Anjos is a forward-moving bulldozer who was always going to be open to the counters that Alvarez destroyed him with, McGregor is a much more intelligent fighter. This matchup will be a game of violent chess, and given the emotion that’s gone into the pre-fight festivities, it’ll be one with bad intentions.
That’s a matchup that favors McGregor. We’ve seen this song and dance from him before, and with the exception of his first fight against Nate Diaz where he gassed himself going for an early knockout, he’s shown that he can keep his cool despite showing emotion before the fight.
As long as McGregor can remain off the fence, his striking should carry the day in this matchup.
Fighting at 155 is uncharted territory for the Irishman, but it might actually be his best weight class. The cut to 145 usually leaves him gaunt and downright scary looking at the weigh-ins. However, the cut to 155 doesn’t look as taxing, and he’ll still be the bigger man on fight night with a five-inch reach advantage.
Prediction: McGregor by 3rd-round TKO
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