Fans who have brought back all their empties and are looking to invest the loot have a few opportunities on the upcoming UFC card offered on cable this Sunday night.
AMA Fight Club protégé Jim Miller (20-2) will face Benson Henderson (13-2) with a probable No. 1 lightweight contender status on the line for Miller. His only two losses were delivered by the division’s current champion and No. 1 contender, Frankie Edgar, and Gray Maynard, who are scheduled for a rubber match at UFC 136 in October.
For his part, Henderson debuted at UFC 129 with a strong performance against a tough BJJ practitioner, Mark Bocek, resulting in a decisive UD win. Ante WEC/UFC merger, he successfully defeated the WEC’s top competition before losing his lightweight title to MMA’s 2010 darling, Anthony Pettis.
Miller is the favourite (-160) against Henderson (+130) in what promises to be a very entertaining scrap that could also earn both fighters additional money due to its FOTN potential. The last 48 hours have seen Henderson’s stock rise proportionately to Miller’s fall, Henderson wagers offered at +145 by mid-day Thursday while sold Miller sold for -175.
Similar to what happened against Charles Oliveira at UFC 124, Miller seems to be snubbed by oddsmakers. Not to the same extent as the BRA fighter stepped in the Octagon the favourite against Miller, who was then on an impressive five-win streak in the UFC, compared to Oliveira’s two.
Miller is consistently ranked in the top six in his weight class, while Henderson still needs one more win against a higher-ranked colleague (such as Miller) to enter the select top 10. While it is true that Henderson shows amazing competitiveness due to his remarkable grit and conditioning, his striking is in need of much improvement and when pitted against opponents with respectable take down and/or wrestling skills, he seems at a loss for answers.
Despite the fact he’s the favourite, the smallish advantage afforded to Miller allows for adequate returns for those inclined to pick the Jersey boy as the only wagering option for that card, and a better one for those developing parlays. An unanimous decision win by Miller looks very plausible.
The most advantageous odds afforded by the card are the ones offered for the lightweight bout featuring Donald Cerrone (15-3-1) and Charles Oliveira (14-1-1). The Brazilian fighter will be entering the Octagon the favourite (-135) against Cerrone (+105). Cerrone is a strong lightweight who has developed very effective BJJ offense and defense over at Jackson’s camp in New Mexico, something of an asset considering the quality of Oliveira’s jitz.
On paper, Cerrone appears skilled enough to counter Oliveira’s ground assault and strong enough to bring him down and make him carry his weight, exhausting the lanky Brazilian as he pushes the pace. It is possible this bout might resemble a BJJ clinic.
Regardless of the form the fight will take, fans will witness an exciting clash with relative significance in terms of impact for the stacked UFC lightweight division. Look for an unanimous decision by Cerrone as the outcome of a gruelling tactical contest for positioning on the mat.
The headlining bout between middlweights Dan Hardy (23-9-1) and Chris Lytle (30-18-5) also offers good odds for the slight underdog (-110 for Hardy, -120 for Lytle), provided the fight remain a striking match. Lytle has inched his way to become the favourite in this fight, lines having them even at -130 until Thursday.
Considering Lytle’s “all-in” ethos, this might be Hardy’s chance to get a HL finish under his belt and avenge his three-fight losing streak. Also, it just might keep him employed with the UFC, as dropping three fights in a row usually earns most fighters a pink slip from the promotion’s management.
Lines by Betus.com
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