It is being reported by mixedmartialarts.com that Brock Lesnar vs Frank Mir III will take place as the main event on the first ever fight card on FOX, which is also the same day as Pacquiao vs Marquez III. It is also stated that it could take place at UFC 140. This is the second rumored fight for Lesnar in the past few days.
How set in stone are these rumors? Honestly, there is no promise here on this fight, only speculation and rumors.MMAweekly.com posted Dana White‘s statement about Brock: “Brock’s gonna get back in the gym in September. Start training again, cause he hasn’t done anything since his surgery, training wise. Brock will probably be back the first of the year.”
By reading this, it appears to expect 2012, but he said probably, and that could mean many things. Hey, if it goes down there is nothing wrong with going ahead and making a few fight predictions.
When people instantly hear this fight, they automatically remember how Brock absolutely man-handled Frank in both of their fights essentially, but in the first as well all saw, Steve Mazzagatti made a huge error.
So, what is the reasoning for this fight to take place?
Well, Brock is coming off of a loss, and Mir is on a streak at the moment and has really bulked up in size. A fight now, would be a perfect close to an extremely hyped trilogy, and would also bring in major ratings.
Let’s face it, love him or hate him, Brock is the biggest draw in MMA. People want to see him fight. He isn’t the greatest in the world, but he has the name that people want to see. He never puts on boring fights as people would label them and he is a good heel for the sport. It has been a few years since Mir and Lesnar faced off.
Who has the advantage now, and who wins?
In the stand-up department, Brock has had all of the power in the first two fights, but back then Brock was much more of a risk-taker. Ever since he has become sick it is almost like he lost his killer instinct. Seriously, watch all of his fights before Carwin or Cain, and you will see the difference. Mir has very improved stand-up. Now that he is much stronger, he truly has a better chance of hanging with the bigger guys on the feet. Can he take a punch better than he once did? That is unknown, but there is a good chance though. At this moment in time, Mir is clearly the favored fighter in this area.
On the ground is where it is the puzzle. Brock has the wrestling, and smothered Mir with it in both fights, and if it wasn’t for the stand-up in their first bout, then odds are Brock would have won by TKO. Nowadays, wrestling overpowers BJJ, and it is hard to see a submission landed on the larger opponent, but that doesn’t mean that it cannot happen. Overall, on the ground Brock has to be favored, due to his smothering size, BUT that does not mean to count Frank Mir out in any way, shape or form.
In the cardio department, both men are in all truths pretty even, but from the past you have to give Brock the edge, but in a keep it real kind of moment, why would cardio be an issue? Someone is getting finished in this fight, there is virtually a very small chance this fight goes to decision, but hey it is MMA and anything can happen. So, to be fair, there is no advantage in the area of cardio.
Mental toughness is the fun part of this fight. Brock has taken back-to-back beat-downs, and has also fought for his life in the past few years. Mir, took a few beat-downs, but is back on track and working his way up and truly has tons of momentum on his side. Breaking it down, Mir may have a little fear when it comes to facing Brock. He has taken two beat-downs from the man in his career, and yes he won the first fight, but that still doesn’t change the fact that he was manhandled by Brock.
Brock, on the other hand, just wants to win. That could weigh in on his mind set. Yes he is focused on Mir but sometimes when you want something so bad, you set yourself up to fail. The mental aspect of this fight, is really fishy, and in all honesty is also virtually even. No one knows where Brock’s mind truly is after his surgery, or where Frank’s is knowing he would have to face a man that literally destroyed him.
Overall, Brock Lesnar would be the betting odds favorite, but in this case, it wouldn’t hurt to put money on Mir. Yes, Brock dominated the last fight, but with the layoff and his new approach to the way he fights mixed with Mir’s new-found confidence, Mir has a really good shot at winning this fight, and earning himself another title shot.
This fight could be a repeat type of fight, where you see Brock from start to finish destroy Mir. He could press him against the cage, land some solid shots, take him to the ground and pound away until the referee steps in.
In a realistic aspect now, the fight could and should go differently. Mir could possibly defend the take-downs of Brock now. On the feet, Mir has the clear advantage and as long as he can avoid the take-down or a thunderous shot from Brock’s fists, he has a good chance at victory. Mir could pick Brock apart, and somehow set up a submission, or Brock could come back with that hunger and really shake up the entire heavyweight division.
Many are quick to assume Brock would destroy Mir, but if there is ever a time to give Frank Mir a chance, now is the time.
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