On Wednesday, Nick Diaz was pulled from the main event of UFC 137. The man to replace him would be Carlos “The Natural Born Killer” Condit.
At the UFC 137 conference, Dana White said “Nick Diaz has lost his opportunity at the welterweight championship. Carlos Condit is taking his place. When we called Condit and offered him this fight, he started crying and had to call us back 15 minutes later.”
I know it’s just under two months until Condit and George “Rush” St-Pierre throwdown at UFC 137, and I know anything can happen between now and then, but that doesn’t mean I can’t put pen to paper and air my thoughts on the outcome.
I believe that UFC 137 will see Condit do what no other welterweight has been able to achieve since Matt Serra’s shock upset of St-Pierre at UFC 69—break the stranglehold St-Pierre has over the welterweight division and, in doing so, capture UFC gold. I’d already given Diaz the honour of ending St-Pierre’s title reign, prior to him being unceremoniously dumped from the card.
Call it a gut feeling, but it’s stood me in good stead thus far, along with a little bit of MMA savvy. It’s the same feeling I had before Cain Velasquez destroyed Brock Lesnar, before Tito Ortiz derailed Ryan Bader’s title contention hopes and before Antonio Nogueira’s schooling of Brendan Schaub.
I think it’s Condit’s destiny—it’s written in the stars. Some might say you make your own destiny, they are absolutely right, and that’s exactly what Condit will do come fight night. When Condit received the call from White, he cried. That shows how much this fight means to him.
Destiny, and a feeling in the pit of my stomach, is enough to justify my own prediction, but I doubt it will appease the MMA purists.
So let me get straight to point:
Condit is ranked six in the MMA world by Sherdog. He is the former, and final, WEC welterweight champion, before it was dissolved by the UFC.
Condit has won one Fight of the Night honour, dispatching Rory Mcdonald via TKO. He also has two Knockouts of the Night honours, knocking out both Dong Hyun Kim and Dan Hardy. He also had the pleasure of being the first fighter to knock Hardy out.
Condit’s record in the UFC is four wins and one decision loss to Martin Kampmann, and that was on his debut for the company. Right now he’s on a four fight win streak and, prior to that loss, he was on an eight fight win streak with the WEC and the Japanese based promotion Pancrase.
Condit’s records reads: (27-5 MMA, 4-1 UFC), of his 27 wins, 13 have come by way of KO/TKO the other 13 via submission. Condit is purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu but his submissions skills are through the roof. His most deadly submissions to date have been the arm bar and the rear naked choke.
St-Pierre (22-2 MMA, 16-2 UFC) is second on the list of pound for pound fighters in the MMA world. A veritable accolade that is more or less indisputable. St-Pierre also has the privilege of being labelled the best all-round mixed martial artist, another fact that cannot be impugned either.
But since his loss to Matt Serra, St-Pierre has become a shell of the fighter he once was in some respects.
Since that fateful night, St-Pierre has amassed nine victories. Of those wins, six have come by way of unanimous decision, two by TKO and one by submission. His last four fights have been decision wins.
Regardless of the pedigree of some of those fighters (Jake Shields, Josh Koscheck et al.), the fact remains that St-Pierre has failed to finish those opponents. It seems his present approach to fighting has become more circumspect.
I think the problem that St-Pierre has is that his mind-set is now one of fear. He wants to win, but not at any cost. His first encounter with Matt Serra has left an indelible scar on his psyche, and he now lacks, or has lost, his killer instinct.
I believe that St-Pierre is ready to be dethroned, but it needs a certain calibre of fighter to achieve that feat; that fighter is Condit.
Whichever way you look at it, this is a dangerous fight for St-Pierre in every sense of the word. Don’t get me wrong, the task that lays ahead for Condit is by no means an easy one to accomplish. For one, he’ll have to contend with the all-round skill set of St-Pierre, in particular his wrestling ability.
But I think the writing is on the wall for St-Pierre; if he stands and bangs with Condit, the chances are he’ll either get knocked out or suffer a loss via TKO.
If St-Pierre takes the fight to the ground, he’ll be susceptible to Condit’s submissions skills
I believe that Condit will bring it to St-Pierre. I think Condit will take St-Pierre to the depths of hell to get that belt strapped around his waist. Condit’s desideratum is the UFC welterweight belt.
Condit takes this every which way but decision.
Final Result: Submission via arm bar.
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