UFC 139 Main Card
Light Heavyweight bout: Maurício Rua vs Dan Henderson
Henderson has been an absolute crusher who has only two losses in a long time – Anderson Silva and Jake Shields (who he was beating him until he got tired). Known for being a KO artist Henderson has the chin, wrestling, and power to beat Rua. Mauricio however, has awesome leg kicks, punches hard himself, and has great escapes on the ground. So if Henderson lands on top, Henderson probably won’t be able to control Rua like he does everyone else. They both have questionable 3 even 5 round cardio, Rua is probably the better of the two. Rua could easily build up points with leg kicks against Dan. Rua is rather terrible in the clinch with his back against the cage and with Henderson likely to utilize fence work you can expect Henderson to be taking Rua down, a lot. The only way I see this going Rua’s favor is by winning by TKO or KO. With Dan’s chin its not likely. I like Dan Henderson to win this one he’s just on such a hot streak right now and Rua is probably still nursing his injuries pre-Jones fight.
Middleweight bout: Wanderlei Silva vs Cung Le
Both guys probably have the same reach, but the speed and output of Cung Le is going to be the difference. Wanderlei has not seen a striker like Cung Le ever. A guy who likes to stand like Wanderlei is going to have problems against a specialist like Cung Le. Yes Wanderlei is also a specialist in stand up battles, but Cung Le has a better strike repertoire.
Guessing the odds are going to be close. When it comes to KO power, Silva has it, and Le is more of an attrition fighter. Le also got KO’d by Scott Smith after Le OWNED Smith for 2 rounds. See the fight here if you missed it.
So add up that Silva has similar KO power as Scott Smith, better ground game, more experience, is faster, and is a monster finisher. Therefore depending on the spread, if its large, take Silva, if close take Cung Le.
Bantamweight bout: Urijah Faber vs Brian Bowles
The odds are heavily favoried for Urijah Faber in this one. There is no doubt Faber will have more output of punches and kicks and is not likely getting finished by Bowles. However, Bowles is a former champion himself and hits hard. Is there a chance Bowles knocks out Faber? Odds are slim, but if you wanted to take a big dog this one would be it.
Welterweight bout: Martin Kampmann vs Rick Story
I like Rick Story here. I like watching and rooting for Kampmann all the time, but I think Story’s style presents a problem for Kampmann. Story is going to clinch and wrestle and that style is bad for someone like Kampmann who wants to pop pop kick against Story.
Light Heavyweight bout: Stephan Bonnar vs Kyle Kingsbury
Bonnar – this fight could be awesome.
UFC 139 Preliminary card (televised)
Light Heavyweight bout: Ryan Bader vs Jason Brilz
Brilz is a boring fighter, but finds the most shockingly vanilla ways to win. I like Bader in this one because hes faster, but don’t be surprised if Brilz wins by North South Choke from the bottom.
Middleweight bout: Tom Lawlor vs Chris Weidman
Weidman is a rising star. Both guys are wrestlers and Lawlor has proved me wrong more than once. Weidman doesn’t have the experience, but he does some smart things in the cage. Curious to see the odds on this one. Lawlor is a big step up in competition, but I think Weidman wins via top control and rides the decision.
UFC 139 Preliminary Card
Bantamweight bout: Michael McDonald vs Alex Soto
pass
Lightweight bout: Gleison Tibau vs Rafael dos Anjos
Depends which Gelison shows up. Rafael is faster and more technical everywhere. Tibau is better in the clinch, when he is on top, and is more powerful. Tibau is likely favored, but I’m going with dos Anjos.
Bantamweight bout: Miguel Torres vs Nick Pace
Interesting fight. At one point Torres was one of the most highly regarded fighters in the division and beyond. Still like him here.
Welterweight bout: Matt Brown vs Seth Baczynski
Matt Brown because he’s immortal.
Lightweight bout: Shamar Bailey vs Danny Castillo
Shamar Bailey via wrestling decision.