Reigning UFC Light Heavyweight Champion of the World Jon Jones is on an astounding streak of dominance. He has beaten seven opponents in a row by absolute domination and stoppage. When Jon Jones steps into the Octagon, the judges sitting cage-side know their services aren’t going to be needed.
A note of caution to those judges: You’re going to want to pay close attention and diligently fill out your scorecards at UFC 140 this Saturday, because this thing is going the full 25 minutes.
Jonny “Bones” Jones is an imposing figure and a tough puzzle for any light heavyweight, but Lyoto Machida is the first opponent with a good answer for everything Jon Jones brings to the table.
Jones has an insane reach advantage over pretty much everyone in the UFC not named Stefan Struve. And nobody at 205 lbs comes even close. A wingspan of 84.5 inches is a tremendous advantage, and Jones is starting to get good at making the most of his reach.
Machida can negate this advantage in several ways: 1) Lyoto Machida‘s Karate-based fighting style is built around not getting hit. He’s very good at dodging and moving away when threatened, and he’s quick enough to stay clear of most of Jones’ strikes. 2) There is Machida’s uncanny ability to feint repeatedly, move in suddenly, strike quickly and then move out again. 3) And finally, Lyoto Machida can use precision kicks to keep his head and body at a distance while landing strikes. Machida’s kicks vs. Jones’ reach does not give Machida an overwhelming advantage, but it does equalize things considerably.
Jones has extremely creative striking. So does Lyoto Machida. Neither man has a clear advantage on this point.
Jones is the best and most complete wrestler in the light heavyweight division.
He’s not just another great freestyle wrestler, he possesses elite skills in both freestyle and Greco-Roman wrestling styles. Greco-Roman wrestling specializes in clinch-work, pushing your opponent around and taking your opponent down while not getting taken down in return. Greco has been proven to the best wrestling style in MMA.
To counter this, Machida has a unique and unfamiliar wrestling skill set. He is a high-level (and extremely underrated) freestyle wrestler and he has also trained extensively in Sumo wrestling. From a standing position, Sumo wrestling super-specializes in clinch work. You lose by anything but your feet touching the ground or being pushed outside of a circle. Controlling and not being controlled is much more important to a Sumo wrestler. Take-down defense is much more important as well.
If you go back and watch the Couture fight again, you’ll notice that every time Couture got a hold of him, Lyoto broke free quickly and almost effortlessly. That’s exactly what it takes to thwart Jones’ clinch game.
Lyoto Machida has better Brazilian Jiu Jitsu than anyone Jones has faced thus far. Jones is probably still better at the overall submission game, but Machida is better equipped to nullify Jones on the ground than anyone else.
Machida is very durable, has great cardio and he consistently fights at the level of his competition no matter how good they are.
Put it all together and what do you get? Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida, the toughest challenge the light heavyweight division has left for Jon Jones.
But what about the all important question: Does Lyoto have the tools to win? Can he beat Jonny “Bones” Jones?
No. He has the tools to pull off the upset, but he won’t. Ultimately, Jones is better at everything than Machida. Jonny has all the skills and tools to win this fight on the judges’ score card.
And that’s no insult to Lyoto Machida. The Dragon will break Jones’ long streak of winning by finishing his opponents. And Mr. Machida is going to be the last light heavyweight to survive against Jones long enough for the judges to render a decision.
Jon Jones is going to win this fight by five-round unanimous decision. Jon Jones will also beat everyone else in the division today either by submission or by knockout. And you can take that to the bank.
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