UFC 307 is now only a couple of days away, and what better way to get hyped for the upcoming pay-per-view than with some MMA News staff predictions?
The event will be available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view on Saturday, October 5, 2024. The main card begins at 10 PM ET, while the preliminary card kicks off at 6 PM ET.
The main event will see Alex Pereira attempt to record his third successful title defense of 2024. Following on from knockout wins over Jamahal Hill at UFC 300 and Ji?í Procházka at UFC 303, “Poatan” will headline another PPV, this time against a surprise challenger in #8-ranked light heavyweight Khalil Rountree.
Co-headlining will be another titleholder in Raquel Pennington, who returns nine months on from her crowning to defend the women’s bantamweight belt against fellow TUF 18 competitor Julianna Peña, who has been out of action for over two years.
Elsewhere on the main card, the legendary José Aldo kicks off a new UFC contract, Kayla Harrison makes her sophomore Octagon appearance against the #2-ranked Ketlen Vieira, and Kevin Holland shoots for the middleweight top 10 opposite Roman Dolidze.
UFC 307: MMA News Staff Predictions
Ahead of Saturday’s UFC 307 event, Kyle Dimond, Ryan Jarrell, Thomas Albano, Pranav Pandey, and Aakrit Sharma have provided their picks for the five matchups set for the main card.
Below, you can check out the current leaderboard through six cards.
- Thomas Albano (23-6)
- Ryan Jarrell (17-12)
- Kyle Dimond (15-14)
- Andrew Starc (8-11)
- Pranav Pandey (4-6)
- Aakrit Sharma (2-3)
And with that, it’s time for the team’s predictions for UFC 307.
Middleweight: Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland
Kyle Dimond: Holland up at middleweight against a grappler just seems like a recipe for disaster. Considering that Dolidze has fought up at light heavyweight, that only makes me more confident in him being able to take Holland down and hold him there. Enough said. (Prediction: Roman Dolidze)
Ryan Jarrell: This is a tricky fight to pick because I can see paths both men have to a victory here. I think Holland is the more polished striker and could be able to get the better of Dolidze on the feet. But the Georgian is a wild man and can mix things up and make it very dangerous for Holland. I expect Dolidze to have the bigger moments in this fight. I want to say he wins via TKO but Holland is tough, so the pick is Dolidze by decision. (Prediction: Roman Dolidze)
Thomas Albano: After his win over Anthony Smith, questions emerged about Roman Dolidze: will he try to go for another fight among the middleweight contender scene (after a loss to Nassourdine Imavov)? Or will he try his hand at 205 pounds again? Ultimately, he chooses the 185 route, replacing an injured Chris Curtis against Holland. “Big Mouth” has lost four of his last seven, though he enters off a win over Micha? Oleksiejczuk at UFC 302.
Nothing to say about this one other than striker vs. grappler – simple as that. If this fight gets to the ground, Holland is in trouble. Even if he’s improved his takedown defense game, Dolidze will be able to control the fight there. If Holland keeps the fight on the feet, then he’ll be able to pick Dolidze apart. Admittedly, this is a coin flip, but I think Dolidze will have the chin and endurance to outlast Holland’s strikes – and enough strength to take Holland to the ground. (Prediction: Roman Dolidze)
Pranav Pandey: From what I can gather, this matchup promises to be a true 50/50 affair, with both fighters showcasing their unique and dynamic styles that have consistently led them to success. Dolidze seemed a bit derailed after suffering the first back-to-back losses of his career, but “The Caucasian” rebounded spectacularly with a dominant performance against Smith at UFC 303. The Georgian packs some serious power in his hands and is equally adept in grappling.
As for Holland, he enjoys a notable reach advantage and displays impressive fluidity in his footwork, complemented by solid takedown defense. However, my only concern with “Trailblazer” is that, in his recent fights, he hasn’t appeared fully invested in competing and hasn’t looked as sharp as he once did. Despite this, you can never count Holland out. That said, I believe Dolidze will take this matchup, successfully keeping Holland at bay while leveraging his strengths. (Prediction: Roman Dolidze)
Aakrit Sharma: There are ways for both Holland and Dolidze to emerge victorious here. Dolidze can utilize his size and wrestling to shut down his opponent’s offense, while Holland can rely on his speed and movement to overwhelm the Georgian on the feet. Holland has only suffered one TKO loss in his career, while Dolidze has never been finished via strikes or submission. I’m predicting the fight goes the distance and Holland wins via decision. Even if he gets taken down, “Trailblazer” has the potential to pull out a submission. (Prediction: Kevin Holland)
Consensus: 4-1 Roman Dolidze
Women’s Bantamweight: Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison
Kyle Dimond: I struggle to see how Vieira is able to make this fight competitive once Harrison gets hold of her. The big question ahead of her debut at UFC 300 was making bantamweight and, sure, it likely wasn’t an easy cut, but she made the weight and looked good inside the Octagon. The bantamweight division needs a big performance from her and a just as important post-fight interview. I don’t see anyone causing her too many problems in this division right now. I predict she’ll find a second-round TKO in Utah. (Prediction: Kayla Harrison)
Ryan Jarrell: The odds in this fight make it pretty hard to go against the American. We all know the insane skillset that Harrison possesses. I do think Vieira is a live underdog here, and I can see her surprising the masses and pulling off the upset. But that doesn’t mean I feel confident enough to pick her to beat the two-time Olympic gold medalist. Give me Harrison to win via second-round submission. (Prediction: Kayla Harrison)
Thomas Albano: There are plenty of people who feel Harrison should have been the one challenging for the women’s bantamweight title this weekend. But Peña played her cards right and it paid off. So Harrison, just in her second UFC fight, has to go against another dangerous name in the women’s 135-pound division in Vieira. The Brazilian, meanwhile, has won three of her last four, though she hasn’t fought since the summer of 2023. Viera’s most recent win came against Pannie Kianzad, and her other victories were decisions over Holm and Miesha Tate. Her only loss in this span? Raquel Pennington – the current champ.
Stylistically, this could be a really good fight considering Vieira, with her own skillset in judo and jiu-jitsu, could try to have a grappling battle with the two-time Olympic gold medalist – or try to use striking to counter Harrison’s game. That said, Harrison is just so good all around, putting that on display against Holm after building herself up with a pair of title wins in the PFL (and coming just short of a third). Harrison should be able to win this one and lock up a guaranteed shot against the Pennington vs. Peña winner. (Prediction: Kayla Harrison)
Pranav Pandey: I think this could be one of the most lopsided matchups we’ll witness on Saturday night. Vieira is undeniably tough and has a solid grappling foundation, but the real question is whether she can keep someone like Harrison grounded — and if so, for how long? In my opinion, Harrison’s sheer dominance is likely too overwhelming for the Brazilian to manage, making it an uphill battle for Vieira from the start. The two-time Olympic gold medalist will bring a fierce intensity no matter where the fight unfolds. Whether it’s on the feet, on the mat, or anywhere in between, her dynamic style is set to take control at every turn. (Prediction: Kayla Harrison)
Aakrit Sharma: Now that we know Harrison can make weight for the UFC women’s bantamweight division, I do not doubt she’ll be champion by the end of 2025, especially in Nunes’ absence. Harrison should rely on the same game plan that helped her win her UFC debut against Holly Holm, the wrestling. However, fighting at altitude following a brutal weight cut could be a problem for the Olympian and she should avoid trading shots with Vieira as the Brazilian possesses decent power and accuracy on the feet for the division.
Although Vieira boasts 93 percent takedown defense in the UFC, she’s yet to face someone as powerful and experienced as Harrison. Thanks to the constant takedown threat, Vieira might not be as comfortable and fluid on the feet as well, helping Harrison get an unexpected KO victory. (Prediction: Kayla Harrison)
Consensus: 5-0 Kayla Harrison
Bantamweight: José Aldo vs. Mario Bautista
Kyle Dimond: Bautista has looked impressive on this winning streak but the Aldo that showed up against Jonathan Martinez looked like he hadn’t lost a step. I still think he’s going to be too much for the guys that aren’t in the top tier of the division — guys like Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili that he has already lost to. I haven’t seen anything from Bautista to make me think he’s at that level yet. (Prediction: José Aldo)
Ryan Jarrell: Father Time has a pretty good track record unless your Tom Brady. But this is not football, and Bautista is a hungry, young Lion looking to make his mark against the legend in Aldo. This fight will be very competitive and Aldo will have his moments, but I believe Bautista is diverse enough to win a decision in what could be Fight of the Night. (Prediction: Mario Bautista)
Thomas Albano: Just when we thought Aldo’s time in the Octagon was done, he comes back earlier this year to put on a solid performance against Martinez. Now, Aldo gets a lower-ranked contender in Bautista. Despite the Brazilian’s age and brief retirement, he has won four of five fights he’s had since December 2020. The only loss in that span came against current bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili. Bautista, meanwhile, is sporting a six-fight win streak that includes submissions of Brian Kelleher and Benito Lopez, as well as a decision over Ricky Simón in his most recent outing.
While I won’t argue much with anyone who feels Bautista’s ranked status, along with him being the younger fighter, leads to their prediction for him. But for me, it’s hard to pick against the “King of Rio” when he continues to put on the showings that he does and competes with the best in the game still. Aldo may likely never be a UFC champion again, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a top-quality fighter anymore with the way he’s performing. Add that this is a big step up for Bautista, and it’s hard for me to go against Aldo here. (Prediction: José Aldo)
Pranav Pandey: There’s no slowing down the “King of Rio.” After his return at UFC 301 following a hiatus, Aldo reminded everyone exactly why he’s held in such legendary esteem. The Brazilian icon masterfully dismantled Martinez, showcasing his trademark distance control and fluid in-and-out striking, leaving his opponent with little room to counter. Despite entering the sunset years of his illustrious career, the former 145-pound kingpin remains fully engaged, showing no signs of losing his edge. But while it’s tough for me to go against Aldo, Bautista presents a serious challenge.
The American brings a well-rounded grappling game, seamlessly blending feints with takedowns, and has been on an impressive run lately. The real question, though, is whether Bautista can apply enough pressure to disrupt Aldo’s rhythm. I believe he can. Bautista’s youth, freshness, and relentless pace, coupled with the potential impact of Utah’s altitude, could very well wear Aldo down and make it difficult for him to keep up with such a high-octane style. (Prediction: Mario Bautista)
Aakrit Sharma: This is my FOTN contender for UFC 307. The Bautista that showed up in the third round against Simón was truly special. The pace, the volume, the accuracy, and the timing would trouble anyone in the UFC men’s bantamweight division. Bautista is dangerous because he has several tools in his arsenal. He can kick, strike, and most importantly, hurt you with knees and elbows. For the rising American prospect, the path to victory should be to keep Aldo in the clinch and land in the pocket as much as possible. He has a great ground game and takedown defense, but it’s unlikely to work against Aldo, who also boasts one of the highest takedown defense rates in UFC history.
The “King of Rio” can shut Bautista down if he maintains distance and keeps attacking the legs. Stylistically, I don’t think Aldo is a good matchup for Bautista and I’m picking the Brazilian to win via decision. Fighting one of the best fighters of all time after beating your first ranked opponent in a division is a huge bump in competition, and Bautista might suffer a fate similar to Martinez, Rob Font, Pedro Munhoz, and Marlon Vera. (Prediction: José Aldo)
Consensus: 3-2 José Aldo
UFC Women’s Bantamweight Title: Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña
Kyle Dimond: This one is a really tough one to call. I think Peña at her best is probably better than Pennington, and I think I’d lean that way if it was over three rounds. This is one I’ve gone back and forth on and I can totally see another grinding performance from Pennington to retain the title. But, I’m gonna back Peña. My major concern is that she doesn’t have a win over anyone in the UFC righ tnow. However, many of Pennington’s wins haven’t been massively impressive either, so maybe that will level things out. (Prediction: Julianna Peña)
Ryan Jarrell: The dislike these two ladies have for one another will add to the build-up of this fight. However, I think the bout itself will be somewhat of a snooze fest. Mostly, because I believe Peña will dominate the wrestling and grappling exchanges and spend a lot of time in top control. I expect “The Venezuelan Vixen” to win a decision here. (Prediction: Julianna Peña)
Thomas Albano: It’s not the most popular choice of fight, but there’s credit that has to be given out. The unpopular manner Pennington won the women’s bantamweight championship at the start of the year does not fall all on her. And though Peña has not fought since UFC 277, and has complained about not receiving a trilogy fight with Amanda Nunes, she’s got another opportunity at the title now. In fairness, Peña did score one of MMA’s greatest upsets when she finished Nunes at UFC 269. There is certainly merit to her game. Pennington, meanwhile, was pretty dominant when she won the then-vacant title at UFC 297 in a fight with Mayra Bueno Silva that went the distance – a fight that honestly showed Bueno Silva did not belong there.
These two ladies are two of the best that the UFC’s 135-pound division has to offer. Both these two also have history with one another as members of Team Tate during season 18 of The Ultimate Fighter – which Peña won, with Pennington falling in the semifinals. Pennington is the defending champion and is on a six-fight win streak, but I feel that Peña just has more power, a better well-rounded skillset, and better wins and experience in terms of competition. That may probably play out on Saturday night with “The Venezuelan Vixen” getting the gold back. (Prediction: Julianna Peña)
Pranav Pandey: This matchup between Pennington and Peña is one that, in my view, could swing in either direction at any moment. Pennington, the reigning champion, comes in riding the wave of a five-fight win streak. Known for her relentless pace, “Rocky” brings a high-volume striking game that methodically wears down her opponents over the course of a fight. However, Pennington’s lack of knockout power often pushes her bouts to go the distance, which could be a disadvantage against someone as tough and relentless as Peña.
“The Venezuelan Vixen” is a durable powerhouse with an unwavering pace, constantly pressuring her adversaries with ceaseless activity. She’s not the type to let her opponents settle into their rhythm easily, and against someone like Pennington, she’ll be looking to turn this into a gritty war. The way I see it, Pennington will undoubtedly have her moments of success, but Peña possesses the full arsenal needed to prevail and reclaim the championship. (Prediction: Julianna Peña)
Aakrit Sharma: As a women’s UFC fighter, it’s hard to have a bigger flex than beating Nunes. However, the rematch being a complete shutout definitely hurt Peña’s brand, with many questioning this title shot against Pennington. I do believe Peña to be tough and skilled enough to grab the belt from “Rocky,” though.
“The Venezuelan Vixen” should benefit greatly from setting the pace of the fight early on and mixing things up, as taking down the UFC women’s bantamweight champion won’t be an easy task. She’ll have to give the champ several things to worry about for winning on the scorecards as I don’t think either of them will be finished. My pick for this one is Peña winning by decision. (Prediction: Julianna Peña)
Consensus: 5-0 Julianna Peña
UFC Light Heavyweight Title: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree
Kyle Dimond: I like watching Rountree a lot. His striking style is tons of fun to watch. He also certainly has the power and skill to knock anyone in this division out. I would have liked to have seen the Jamahal Hill fight first, though, because frankly, I’m not sure I could back anyone to beat Pereira when their best win is Anthony Smith.
Rountree is dangerous, but when you’re talking about Pereira, you’re talking about an all-time great in kickboxing. “Poatan” could get caught if he’s overly aggressive, but I think he’ll pick Rountree apart before ending it in the second. (Prediction: Alex Pereira)
Ryan Jarrell: I’m excited for this fight. We all know the power that both of these guys possess. It should make for an exciting finish one way or another. As much as I like Rountree, I just don’t see him as a champion. I think the four-inch reach advantage that Pereira has will be the difference in this fight. Give me “Poatan” via second-round TKO. (Prediction: Alex Pereira)
Thomas Albano: I don’t want to come off like a Rountree hater – he has seemed like a cool dude in the interviews that he does. And stylistically, this fight can be fun considering how these two can be creative and powerful as strikers. Having said that (and yes, I know the UFC’s ranking system is skewed, but nevertheless…) why is the #8 contender getting a title shot? I truly feel that the UFC probably wanted Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway for this card. But with that fight moved to UFC 308, and the UFC probably wanting a better headliner than Pennington vs. Peña, they called up Pereira to save their butts (again).
Pereira has retained the light heavyweight title against Ji?í Procházka and Jamahal Hill. Rountree’s win streak, meanwhile, has seen him go through the likes of Smith, Chris Daukaus, and Karl Roberson. This will be a calculated kickboxing-style matchup as both men look for the key opportunity to land a devastating shot on the other. Unfortunately for Rountree, Pereira’s strikes are just too powerful, and he’s dominated against much stronger competition. You’ll see a frenzy if Rountree gets the win (lest anything else in the second half of 2024 UFC be crazier), but Pereira should probably take this in the first six minutes or so. (Prediction: Alex Pereira)
Pranav Pandey: From where I stand, this clash is one of the most direct and explosive matchups on the UFC 307 card. With both Pereira and Rountree being strikers, I don’t foresee any room for grappling or takedowns coming into play. Rountree has proven time and again that he can weather the storm against elite-tier kickboxers, and respond with even greater force. “The War Horse” boasts a lethal kicking arsenal, complemented by knockout power in his fists. However, ‘Poatan’ is far from an ordinary kickboxer, having carved a path through several former champions during his brief yet immensely successful tenure in the Octagon.
“Poatan’s” exceptional fight IQ and thunderous striking ability allow him to methodically dismantle his opponents. Rountree will need to close the distance early to nullify Pereira’s reach, but doing so may leave him dangerously exposed to Pereira’s counters, particularly his devastating left hook. I believe Pereira’s significant reach advantage, along with the unrelenting ferocity in his attacks, will overwhelm Rountree and make it incredibly difficult for him to land his best shots. The Brazilian’s calculated pressure and ability to dictate the fight’s tempo will likely cause Rountree to unravel under the onslaught. (Prediction: Alex Pereira)
Aakrit Sharma: Yes, Rountree can pull off a huge upset against Pereira if he lands a good shot. Will he, though? “Poatan” just looks unstoppable at the moment, and it seems to be a matter of time before he finds his opponent’s chin one way or another. Considering Glover Teixeira corners and trains Pereira, I actually won’t be surprised if the UFC light heavyweight champ shoots for a takedown and showcases some of his wrestling. Considering he’s already mastered striking and kickboxing, I’m sure Pereira focuses a lot on filling the holes in his game to prepare for opponents like Magomed Ankalaev.
Rountree’s a great striker and his momentum through a five-fight win streak is undeniable. “The War Horse” can trouble the champ with leg kicks and powerful shots, but I simply don’t see anyone taking out Pereira on the feet. (Prediction: Alex Pereira)
Consensus: 5-0 Alex Pereira
That’ll do it for our UFC 307 staff picks! What do you think? Do your picks look similar? Let us know in the comments section! Also, you can check out the full UFC 307 card below.
Main Card:
- Light Heavyweight Championship: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree
- Women’s Bantamweight Championship: Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña
- Bantamweight: José Aldo vs. Mario Bautista
- Women’s Bantamweight: Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison
- Middleweight: Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland
Preliminary Card:
- Welterweight: Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley
- Women’s Strawweight: Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo
- Middleweight: César Almeida vs. Ihor Potieria
Early Preliminary Card:
- Light Heavyweight: Ryan Spann vs. Ovince Saint Preux
- Women’s Strawweight: Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington
- Welterweight: Court McGee vs. Tim Means
Be sure to keep it right here on MMANews.com for all the results, highlights, and updates on UFC 307!
Continue Reading UFC 307: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Staff Predictions at MMA News.