The first time I ever visited Las Vegas, I won just over $7,000 in a single night by playing dollar slots. Having never visited Sin City before, I figured that this was par for the course and immediately declared Vegas to be the greatest city ever created by gangsters. I thought I’d discovered the secret to making easy money.
You know the rest of the story, I’m sure. I ended up going home two days later, my head hung in shame, with a mere $650 left in my pocket. And ever since that first trip, I’ve never been able to win any kind of real money in Vegas. I even lived 10 minutes from the strip for a year while covering MMA for my previous employer and still ended up losing far more money than I made.
But I think I could make a living from betting on mixed martial arts.
I don’t actually bet on the fights. Not on a regular basis, anyway. Gambling on the sport you cover isn’t the best idea in the world because you start rooting with your wallet instead of being an objective observer.
But that doesn’t stop me from looking at the odds and offering my opinion to those of you who actually want to wager on the fights. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the odds for a few of the big fights unfolding over the next six months:
Jon Jones -525 vs. Rashad Evans +415: Jones opened as a six-to-one favorite, but the line is moving in favor of Evans. I would expect it to continually hover around this mark until a day before the fight, when people will likely begin heavily betting Evans. I see the logic in putting money on Evans as a four to one dog, but I do believe this line accurately reflects the actual matchup in the fight.
Jim Miller -210 vs. Nathan Diaz +175: I’m a little surprised Miller isn’t a slightly bigger favorite; I’d peg him at -350. So there’s real value in Miller here. Diaz is a very good fighter, but Miller is better all-around.
Dustin Poirier -300 vs. Chan Sung Jung +220: Poirier should be a bigger favorite in this fight. He’s better nearly everywhere than Jung. He also cuts a ton of weight to make 145 and will have a significant size advantage over the Zombie. Poirier represents significant value at this point, and I expect the line will start moving closer to -400 by the time the fight rolls around.
Junior dos Santos -170 vs. Alistair Overeem +150: This is a tough fight to call, and an even tougher line to analyze. Dos Santos has always had a boxing edge over his opponents, but he won’t have that against Overeem. If Dos Santos is smart, he’s working on his wrestling and jiu-jitsu in the hopes of turning this into a ground battle. This one is a pick em’ for me, so I think there’s value in Overeem at this point. If Overeem goes over +200, I strongly urge you to pull the trigger.
Cain Velasquez -400 vs. Frank Mir +325: It’s easy to look at this line and say it’s correct, but I think it’s wildly incorrect. Velasquez should win the fight, but he’s coming off a major injury and surgery. We don’t know how he’ll respond to that. He’s also spent a lot of time not fighting over the past year and a half. I do think Velasquez will win the fight, but Mir gives you some good value at this number.
Anderson Silva -300 vs. Chael Sonnen +250: This just seems incorrect, doesn’t? Silva went into their first fight as a significant favorite and was utterly dominated until the end of the fight, yet he’s still a three-to-one favorite in the rematch? I do believe Silva wins this fight, but it’s going to be a lot closer than these numbers indicate.
Dominick Cruz -175 vs. Urijah Faber +145: This is a very accurate line. Cruz should be the favorite going into the rematch, but Faber gave him all he could handle in the first fight. Faber’s had plenty of time to adapt to Cruz’s game, and he’ll be as ready as anyone else in the bantamweight division by the time July 7 rolls around.
Ben Henderson -115 vs. Frankie Edgar – 115: Edgar opened up as the favorite for the rematch, but the money came in on Henderson and shifted the line in his favorite. I fully expect Henderson to be a two-to-one favorite by the time the fight rolls around this summer, so this is a good time to jump on the line if you’re going to do it.
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