Alistair Overeem’s failed urinalysis during a random pre-fight drug test administered by the Nevada State Athletic Commission may end up being a boon for several UFC heavyweights.
Overeem’s testosterone-to-epitestosterone (T/E) levels were reported today at being a very high 14:1. For frame of reference:
- Normal human T/E levels are 1:1. There are cases where people have natural T/E levels as high as 5:1, but they’re exceedingly rare.
- The World Anti-Doping Agency allows up to 4:1.
- The Nevada State Athletic Commission allows up to 6:1.
No matter how you look at it, Overeem’s T/E levels were off the charts. For the sake of comparison, UFC middleweight Chael Sonnen had a 16.9:1 T/E level for his first fight against Anderson Silva. Sonnen was initially suspended for a year, then had the suspension reduced to six months in a hearing. Issues with the California commission ultimately saw that reduction overturned, and Sonnen ended up serving the entire 12-month suspension.
Overeem will appear before the NSAC during an April 24th meeting, where he’ll try to explain why his T/E levels were over two times the legal limit and 14 times higher than the average human being. Overeem does not currently have a fighter’s license in the state of Nevada, so he’ll need to clear his name at the hearing and apply for a license in order to fight Junior dos Santos next month at UFC 146.
Given Overeem’s recent history with the NSAC, I’d say that’s a long shot.
And so the UFC will likely be left to pick up the pieces in the coming weeks, trying to replace Dos Santos vs. Overeem with a fight fans will still be interested in.
Frank Mir is the obvious candidate. He’s riding a three-fight winning streak over increasingly good competition in Mirko Cro Cop, Roy Nelson and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. He’s one of the most well-known fighters on the heavyweight roster. And to top it off, he’s a two-time champion who would love to complete an improbable career resurgence by winning an unprecedented third Heavyweight Championship belt. It’s probably the biggest fight the UFC can make with the hand they’ve been dealt.
Cain Velasquez is also an option. He’d probably be the best choice if he weren’t coming off a definitive knockout loss to Dos Santos in November. I want to see Velasquez and Dos Santos mix it up again down the road, because I believe Velasquez is still the best all-around heavyweight in the UFC despite the loss to Junior. But Velasquez needs a solid win before the fans will truly be intrigued by the rematch.
And then there’s Mark Hunt.
The fact that I’m discussing Hunt as a potential title contender in the year 2012 is an amazing thing. When he entered the UFC, he was on a five-fight losing streak, and a quick loss to Sean McCorkle in his UFC debut seemed to confirm everyone’s suspicions: that Hunt, put simply, was a terrible fighter. After all, he only secured a UFC contract due to a clause in his PRIDE contract, after Zuffa purchased the promotion.
And yet, here we are, with Hunt riding a three-fight winning streak against tough competition in the UFC. As crazy as it sounds, Hunt is on the verge of title contention. He’s scheduled to face Stefan Struve on the UFC 146 card, and an emphatic win over the towering Struve would likely put him in the mix for a title shot.
Hardcore fans around the world are clamoring for Hunt to replace Overeem against Dos Santos. They’re bombarding Dana White on Twitter and other social media outlets. They’re organizing campaigns. In short, they’re doing everything they can to get hunt the improbable title shot that was all but impossible two years ago.
White puts a great deal of stock into what his fans tell him on Twitter. The UFC President views it as a direct conduit to real UFC fans, and the UFC has booked fights based solely on Twitter activity in the past.
I don’t think the Twitter campaign will work this time, though. Hunt just isn’t deserving of a title shot. Not yet, anyway. And while it would indeed be something magical to see Hunt step in the cage for a world title fight, we must also realize that Hunt has yet to face a true top contender in the division. Three wins in a row is impressive, especially for someone that was long ago written off as a mixed martial artist, but he still lacks that signature win that will propel him into the main event.
I’d love to see Hunt get a title shot. It would be the culmination of the most incredible career turnaround in the history of the sport. And his incredible striking skills and power would give him a chance to knock out any fighter in the division.
But he’s just not ready. Not yet.
That day may come, though. And what a day it would be.
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