The UFC middleweight division has a new player, and his name is Hector Lombard.
Bellator CEO Bjorn Rebney confirmed the news today to MMAFighting’s Mike Chiapetta. Rebney said that it made no financial sense, at least based on the current Bellator model, to keep Lombard around:
“We have a business model where we make decisions based on analyzing data,” he said. “Since the first day we came into being, we made decisions based on real models, not hypotheticals. The UFC model is largely based on pay-per-view, and the offer they made to Hector is going to be monetized via pay-per-view. While pay-per-view could play a role in our future, today it doesn’t. So, we did our due diligence to review the UFC contract, analyzed it in terms of charging our audience to see Hector vs. putting him on free TV, and we decided to allow the UFC to sign Hector, where I am extremely confident he will win the UFC middleweight title on pay-per-view.”
Now that the news is official, we can look forward to Lombard’s debut. We have no idea when he’ll actually step into the Octagon, but I’m assuming it’ll be this summer at some point. He won’t get an immediate title shot at Anderson Silva, partly because Silva already has a fight booked with Chael Sonnen, and partly because Lombard isn’t quite on the level of a guy who can come into the UFC and get an immediate shot at the gold.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few of the options available as Lombard’s first UFC opponent and offer up predictions on who I think would win each fight.
Brian Stann
Stann makes the most sense to me. He’s near the top of the division, and a win by Lombard would certainly elevate him to the point where he can be given a title shot.
The same thing goes for Stann, though. A win over Lombard would be a big deal, and would finally give one of the UFC’s most marketable stars the push he needs to earn a title fight.
Stann also makes a lot of sense from the perspective of trying to put together an exciting fight. Stann has suffered greatly against wrestlers in the past, but Lombard’s striking background makes him the perfect style matchup.
Prediction: Lombard
Mark Munoz
Munoz is another guy who, like Stann, is near the very top of the division and just needs one win to earn a ticket into the title picture. Lombard would have considerable difficulty with Munoz’s wrestling, so he’s not a great opponent if you’re looking to give Lombard a free pass into a fight with Silva.
Prediction: Munoz
Chris Weidman
Weidman has a lot in common with Munoz. He’s a fantastic wrestler and grappler with enough ground skills to stifle Lombard. His striking isn’t very good, however, and that gives Lombard a real weakness to exploit.
Prediction: Lombard
Winner of Alan Belcher vs. Rousimar Palhares
Belcher and Palhares will tie up on May 5th at UFC on FOX 3 in New Jersey. The winner of the fight would be considered one of those guys who is almost ready for a title shot, but still needs one more big win to get a crack at Silva.
That makes the winner a perfect match for Lombard.
Both fights would be tough for Lombard. Belcher’s all-around game has improved drastically in recent years, while Palhares has that disgustingly awesome grappling game that makes him a dangerous opponent for anyone in the division.
Predictions: If Palhares, then Palhares. If Belcher, then Lombard
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