Alan Belcher has an underrated ground game. Yeah, I said it. It’s not like Joe Rogan has a patent on saying fighters have underrated grappling skills.
But here’s the scoop: Belcher is a good grappler; Rousimar Palhares is an amazingly super-terrific grappler.
Now, you’re probably wondering how many degrees of separation fill the void between good and amazingly super-terrific. While this is a bit of a gray area that even Plato and Socrates struggled with thousands of years ago, I’ll do my best to give a very brief rundown.
A good grappler can handle his opponents on the ground. He is able to fend off submission attempts, get back to his feet when the opportunity to do so is there and can even score a stoppage of his own on the ground.
An amazingly super-terrific grappler is an absolute horror when the fight hits the mat. Whether on the bottom or top, any time this species of grappler tussles with an opponent, he seamlessly turns his foe from enemy to prey in a heartbeat. This is even the case when the opponent is a good grappler.
Belcher is no dummy—he knows how to win this fight. While “Paul Harris'” striking has improved drastically over the past couple years, it is not even in the same universe as Belcher’s.
To win this fight, Belcher knows he will have to keep it standing.
On the other hand, Palhares knows that dragging Belcher to the mat will be his key to victory Saturday night.
The question then becomes: Can Palhares take Belcher down?
While it is not inconceivable that Belcher does a Dan Henderson impression and scores points while backpedaling his way to a decision win, Palhares has become much more savvy at dragging his opponents to the ground since his loss to Hendo.
It is one thing for a guy to stuff his opponent’s takedowns, but quite another to prevent him from pulling guard for a full 15 minutes. That’s not to mention that the guy is only a second or two away from submitting you as soon as he lays a finger on your leg.
Throw in that Palhares happens to be built like (and named after) a tree stump, and it’s going to be quite a chore for Belcher to avoid the ground Saturday night.
Sooner or later, this fight will make its way to the mat. From there, it’s academic.
Rousimar Palhares will submit Alan Belcher.
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