After all the drug scandals, injuries and reshuffling, UFC 146 is finally upon us with what we now hope is a fixed card of heavyweights slugging it out in one of the most anticipated events all year.
There’s all to play for on Saturday—and it’s not just Junior Dos Santos putting everything on the line in his first heavyweight title defense against Frank Mir. The night will decide who the next contender will be as the entire division is shaken up and fighters will be moved up or down the ladder in the heavyweight rankings.
Whichever fighter has the most to gain must also have the least to lose. Former champion Cain Velasquez, who is facing Antonio Silva, is already hotly tipped as the next shot for the title. His loss against Dos Santos was seen as an aberration by many who still rank him as the No. 1 heavyweight in the world. They and the rest of us are eager to see a rematch between the two, but even if Mir defeats Dos Santos, having Velasquez face Dos Santos instead would still make perfect sense.
In that sense, Velasquez is not the man with the most to gain in terms of how far he will jump up the ladder towards the championship, but it’s certainly a long tumble down should the unthinkable happen and he finds himself in the losing corner on Saturday.
The rest of the card, while consisting of highly rated men, doesn’t contain anyone yet worthy of a title shot. Men like Roy Nelson, Stefan Struve and Antonio Silva are highly accomplished in their own rights, but none have strung together a consistent enough winning streak against elite opponents to be considered close to the belt.
That leaves Frank Mir, who has gone 4-2 in his last six matches, as the fighter with the most to gain at UFC 146. He was unexpectedly thrown in the spotlight after No. 1 contender Alistair Overeem dropped out due to failing a drug test.
Mir has an 11-year history in the sport and has already been a UFC champion. But he was soundly defeated by both Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin (a man who was systematically demolished by Dos Santos), leaving few to place him in their top-five heavyweights.
Mir has since resurrected his career with wins over Mirko “Cro Cop”, Roy Nelson and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, and so it is not that outlandish to see him square off against Dos Santos for the belt.
But the fact is, it was a twist of fate and timing that landed him the shot. Many would have preferred to have seen Fabricio Werdum, fresh from a victory against Roy Nelson, in a rematch against Dos Santos. However, Werdum is due to fight later in the summer, so he was unable to make that card.
A loss against Dos Santos, the No. 1 fighter in the division, will drop Mir only a few spots in the rankings and not harm his reputation at all. But a win will secure a remarkable rejuvenation in the sport for this 32-year-old, and possibly earn him a spot in the UFC Hall of Fame.
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