Author: Adam Wells

There was a ton of hype around UFC 189, both as a coronation for Conor McGregor as the company’s newest superstar and because this was one of the deepest cards of the year.

The event delivered on both fronts as one of the best events in recent memory, culminating in McGregor‘s thrilling second-round TKO of Chad Mendes to win the interim featherweight championship.

Even better for UFC from a business perspective, things line up perfectly for an epic showdown between McGregor and Jose Aldo later this year. There will be plenty of time to analyze that when it happens. For now, let’s see how McGregor was able to get his biggest win. 

 

McGregor vs. Mendes Stats

There were two things to keep an eye on that would determine whether McGregor or Chad Mendes won the main event. McGregor‘s ability to throw a barrage of punches, combined with his big power, meant that wrestling-technician Mendes had to keep things on the canvas. 

As it turns out, both fighters’ strengths showed up during this fight. Mendes hit McGregor with a knee and got him down early in the first round. It was the perfect setup for Money and the worst-case scenario for The Notorious One. 

After that, though, everything that needed to go right for McGregor went right. The stats show that Mendes was more precise in his attack, but McGregor did what he always does by throwing a lot of punches. 

Ben Fowlkes of MMAjunkie.com noted after the fight what made McGregor so difficult on this particular night:

Were the strikes that followed (after getting up from the takedown) especially powerful? Not really, said Mendes. What they were, was “accurate.” Like laser-guided missiles, it was one direct hit after another. Mendes, sucking air through his mouth, scanning the area for clear routes of retreat, found nothing but trouble everywhere he turned. Eventually the only path left was straight down.

McGregor can drive an opponent nuts because he doesn’t stop. There’s an endless stream of energy and punches that come from the 26-year-old as he tries to knock an opponent down. He was only in control of the fight for one minute and 40 seconds. 

B/R’s Jonathan Snowden noted on Twitter that in terms of scoring things were not going McGregor‘s way:

Mendes was winning the early battle, but McGregor provided the big strikes that ultimately won the war. 

This win also put an end to any talk that UFC had been building up McGregor by putting him in “easy” fights just to give him a title opportunity, which the new interim champion addressed after his victory, per ESPN.com’s Brett Okamoto. 

“I have been hearing all the time that I’ve been protected to this point and gifted a title shot,” McGregor said. “So, when my title shot went running and I was given a shot at what I was supposedly being protected from, I was going to prove that I’m a true fighter.”

Now that McGregor is atop the mountain, he’s got to be better than ever to stay there. He’s not out of the woods yet because Aldo is waiting in the wings whenever the featherweight champion is able to return. 

UFC was the real winner on Saturday night. The scene in Las Vegas all weekend, starting with the weigh-in and continuing to the end of the main event, was special. McGregor has been an All-Star talker leading up to the show and backed it up in dominating fashion. 

 

Stats courtesy of UFC.com.

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The path to UFC 189‘s main event, featuring Chad Mendes and Conor McGregor fighting for the interim featherweight championship, has been unusual. Yet that hasn’t dampened the overall enthusiasm for the bout, which promises to be one of the most talked-about fights of the year. 

Current UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo was supposed to defend the belt against McGregor, but he injured one of his ribs during a sparring session and pulled out of the bout. McGregor has been building up to this moment for more than two years, winning all five of his UFC fights and four by TKO.

Fortunately, UFC president Dana White had an excellent backup plan in place. Mendes took Aldo to the extreme in their matchup at UFC 179 and came close to knocking the champion out in the first round before losing by unanimous decision. 

Mendes and McGregor, along with Aldo, are the class of the featherweight division and are going to carry it into the future. Two of them will wage war on Saturday, setting up a future bout against Aldo that will be must-see television. 

 

Tale of the Tape

 

Fight Odds

 

Fight Prediction

McGregor is a knockout machine, with 15 of his 17 career victories coming by dropping an opponent; Mendes isn’t a slouch in that department with seven knockouts, but he’s more precise with eight decision wins. 

Yet stats listed by UFC.com show that Mendes is a more accurate striker, connecting on 373 of his 767 attempts. McGregor has hit on 165 of 385 attempts, but he’s got such power that the total volume is significantly lower because he can knock you out in the blink of an eye. 

It’s because of that power, as well as McGregor‘s size advantage (three inches taller, eight-inch reach), that the Irishman has the odds in his favor.

However, Jeff Wagenheim of Sports Illustrated did raise a valid point about how UFC has groomed McGregor for his moment in the spotlight:

The promotion carefully matched McGregor with mid-level opponents who mainly preferred to do their fighting on their feet. This made for action-packed showcases, all safely within Conor’s brightly lit comfort zone. McGregor still had to perform, though, and he walked that walk like he belonged on the Hollywood Walk of Fame.

Just looking at the list of opponents McGregor has defeated in five UFC fights, there isn’t one star who will be fighting for titles and in main events for years to come. Dennis Siver is a solid striker who has some nice wins under his belt but never got into the title picture. 

Putting McGregor in a fight with someone who has a more diverse skill set, like Mendes, can present problems if those punches aren’t landing early. 

Eric Stinton of Sherdog.com broke down the advantage that Mendes will have if the fight takes a certain turn:

…Mendes has the juice to become the first person to take down McGregor. From there, it will be anyone’s guess how the action will go down, since McGregor’s overall ground game, outside of sturdy takedown defense, remains a mystery. Mendes, on the other hand, is a positional grappler who prefers working ground-and-pound to fishing for limbs to snag. His single submission victory came in his second WEC match in 2010, and since then, he has only attempted two more.

Yet even with Mendes‘ wrestling ability possibly negating what makes McGregor so effective, there’s still the matter of getting in close enough to take the 26-year-old down.

This is where McGregor‘s huge size advantage, especially the long reach, comes into play. In order to take someone down, you have to move in close. Moving in on a powerful striker who has a 74-inch reach is asking for trouble. 

McGregor has no inhibitions at all in the cage. For all we know, he was born with his fists balled up and arms swinging. The Celtic Tiger wants to hit anything that stands in his way once the Octagon door shuts. 

During a conference call, via Lance Pugmire of the Los Angeles Times, McGregor talked about his strategy for the fight:

“He gasses too quick. I [predict] exchanges early. I see him gasping for breath…” McGregor said. “His body is going to be screaming for oxygen and I’m going to be … in his face cracking him with everything I have. Every shot. The heel. The knee. The elbow. The fist. … And that will be that.”

Mendes is regarded as one of the best wrestlers in all of mixed martial arts for a reason. He nearly knocked out the UFC featherweight champion, yet none of that feels like it will be enough against a bigger and stronger opponent on Saturday night. 

One thing to keep an eye on is how long the fight lasts. Mendes is no stranger to long, drawn-out battles, with nine of his 19 career fights going the distance (eight wins), including a five-round fight against Aldo.

McGregor has only had one of his 19 career fights go to the third round. It was his second fight in UFC, a decision win over Max Holloway in August 2013. Putting him in a five-round bout with one of the division’s best-conditioned athletes has the potential to go wrong for the rising star. 

UFC has wanted McGregor to be in the championship mix for a long time. This is his moment to prove that faith was not misplaced, and he is going to deliver. 

McGregor wins via third-round TKO

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UFC 187 promises to be one of the most important events of the mixed martial arts year. Headliners Anthony Johnson and Daniel Cormier square off for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship, which had been held by Jon Jones for the past four years. 

Due to Jones’ various legal problems, the UFC stripped him of the title and gave Cormier a bout against Johnson to determine the new champion. 

In addition to crowning a new light heavyweight champ, UFC 187 will feature Chris Weidman defending the middleweight title against Vitor Belfort. It’s not unusual for UFC to have a show with two title fights, but the events surrounding the main event are so unique that this card takes on a different aura. 

Johnson and Cormier are two of the best and most exciting fighters in the sport. Combined, they have just one loss in their last eight UFC fights, with four of those seven wins coming via stoppage. 

UFC is not holding back anything to ensure a great night of fights. Here’s the entire card and predictions for what to expect Saturday night. 

Pay-per-view main card starts at 10 p.m. ET. Fox Sports 1 preliminary card starts at 8 p.m. ET. UFC Fight Pass preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET.

 

Main Event Pick: Anthony Johnson vs. Daniel Cormier

It would be hard to find a better main event among current fighters on the roster than Johnson vs. Cormier. Johnson has been a different fighter since returning to the UFC in April 2014, winning all three fights with the last two coming via TKO in the first round. 

He made an interesting comment about the change in his opponent from Jones to Cormier, noting the new challenger will present a more difficult challenge, via Damon Martin of Fox Sports:

I get to fight another elite athlete, a guy who, in my opinion, is actually a tougher fight for me than Jon Jones. DC’s a grinder, he brings it and this is his second chance, so I know he’s going to bring it even more. This is the same for everybody at the end of the day. You have two guys who are hungry to get the belt, and that’s what it’s about.

Even though Jones is a superior fighter to Cormier, there is something to be said for the way Cormier fights that can drive an opponent nuts. He’s evolved a lot over the years, going back to his Strikeforce days as a pure wrestler and submission specialist. 

Per UFC.com, Cormier‘s striking is superior to Johnson’s with more significant strikes landed per minute (3.78 to 3.33) and better accuracy (48.12 percent to 45.47). Johnson has had more success grappling, though, with 2.53 takedowns landed per fight and 85 percent of takedowns defended.

It’s interesting to see how well Johnson does grappling because he’s not a submission fighter. Three of his four career losses have come via submission, and none of his 19 wins have come via submission (13 knockouts, six decisions). 

The difference in the fight is Cormier‘s versatility. Even though the numbers favor Johnson as a wrestler, Cormier always has that skill in his back pocket dating back to his days as a junior college national champion in 2004. 

There’s every reason to expect a close fight between two excellent competitors, but Cormier‘s all-around game and refusal to quit in his last bout with Jones at UFC 182 will give him a slight edge when the judges score the bout. 

Cormier wins via split decision.

 

Middleweight Title Pick: Chris Weidman (c) vs. Vitor Belfort

Another year, another Belfort title fight. He’s one of those fighters who always win enough to justify getting a shot, but he so often comes up short when the lights are brightest.

Belfort‘s biggest win was for the light heavyweight title in 2004 against Randy Couture, though it wasn’t a dominant performance. One of the seams on his glove grazed Couture’s eye and caused the doctor to stop it early in the first round. 

Couture got a rematch in August and dominated Belfort for three rounds before the referee stopped the fight. The 38-year-old is 0-3 in his last three title fights, though an optimist would point out those three fights came against three of the best fighters in MMA history (Couture, Anderson Silva, Jon Jones).

Belfort does provide a lot of excitement in his fights, regardless of the outcome. Going back to his Affliction days in 2008, his last 10 fights have all ended via stoppage. 

This is Belfort‘s first fight since November 2013 due to various reasons, highlighted by a failed drug test for elevated levels of testosterone in February 2014. 

Weidman has also had a long layoff, as he’ll be stepping into the Octagon for the first time since last July. He was scheduled to fight Belfort at UFC 181 in December and again at UFC 184, but the middleweight champion suffered injuries in training prior to both matches. 

Weidman is on top of the MMA world right now. He ended Silva’s 17-match winning streak to capture the middleweight title and technically won the rematch even though it was stopped because Silva broke his own leg delivering a kick. Most recently, Weidman stopped Lyoto Machida to move his career record to 12-0. 

The middleweight champion also presents a more well-rounded fighting style that can give Belfort problems, as ESPN.com’s Brett Okamoto noted in his preview:

(Belfort‘s) not especially mobile, however, and Weidman should have plenty of opportunities to get this fight to the floor. Belfort is a threat off his back but Weidman‘s submission defense and ground-and-pound technique are exceptional. As good as Belfort‘s hips are on the floor, he’ll be in trouble if Weidman puts him on his back.

In a conference call, via Damon Martin of Fox Sports, Weidman said that he doesn’t expect to show any ring rust after being off for 10 months:

I mean, we’re in a tough sport. We’re always coming back from injuries, so it’s just like my wrestling background. You get hurt and you become stronger from it, and obviously I hurt my ribs. And it wasn’t — they healed pretty well. It healed fast, and I’ve had no issues in training again with the ribs. So no, I’m not worried about any ring rust, no worries about my ribs at all. So all good.

Weidman is operating at another level than anyone else in the middleweight division. Belfort isn’t a traditional middleweight, floating between 185 pounds and 205 pounds throughout his career, so the power he boasts in a punch could be more than Weidman is used to. 

However, until Belfort proves he can rise to the occasion in a championship fight, his resume at 38 years old doesn’t support him being able to knock off a star in his prime. 

Weidman wins via second-round TKO.

 

Fight of the Night: Travis Browne vs. Andrei Arlovski

In the scheme of things, Travis Browne vs. Andrei Arlovski isn’t going to change the heavyweight division landscape. Browne may crawl his way back into the title picture with a second consecutive win after his loss to Fabricio Werdum last April. 

Yet certain matchups can provide all the entertainment fans need without turning someone into a star or altering the championship picture. 

Browne has 11 career UFC fights (8-2-1) going back to his victory at The Ultimate Fighter 11 finale in 2010, with eight of them ending via stoppage, including his first-round knockout of Brendan Schaub at UFC 181. He’s also a fighter who just wants to put his hands up and throw, regardless of what happens.

Per UFC.com stats, Browne absorbs more significant strikes per minute (3.51) than he gives (2.91), yet he’s only been knocked out once in his career. Arlovski is a prominent striker with better defense, landing 2.96 significant strikes per minute and only taking 2.3. 

That would seem to give Arlovski the edge, but he’s been prone to knockouts in the past with seven of his 10 career losses coming by punches. Browne is a step up in competition from recent opponents like Antonio Silva and Brendan Schaub. 

Browne doesn’t have to be on point with his punching to defeat Arlovski. He just has to keep bringing the pressure, which won’t be a problem. 

Browne wins via third-round TKO.

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After two years and one lawsuit, Quinton Jackson finally makes his return to the Octagon against Fabio Maldonado at UFC 186 on Saturday. 

It was uncertain Jackson vs. Maldonado was going to happen on this card. On April 7, Rampage’s former employer, Bellator MMA, which filed a lawsuit against him claiming he only completed three fights on a six-fight contract, was granted an injunction that forced UFC to take him off the card, per MMA Fighting’s Ariel Helwani:

On April 21, four days before the event, UFC announced (via Nancy Gay of UFC.com) that a New Jersey judge reversed the injunction that will allow Jackson to compete at UFC 186. The report also notes it will be a catchweight bout at 215 pounds instead of a traditional light heavyweight fight (205 pounds). 

This is a huge moment for the 36-year-old Jackson, who did not leave UFC in 2013 on a high note. He lost three consecutive fights against Jon Jones, Ryan Bader and Glover Teixeira in his final fight before moving to Bellator. He also missed weight for his bout against Bader at UFC 144.

One of those defeats can’t be held against Jackson because it came against Jon Jones, who has yet to be legitimately beaten. (Jones’ only career defeat was the result of a disqualification due to illegal elbow strikes against Matt Hamill.)

Following his loss against Teixeira in January 2013, Jackson said during the UFC on Fox post-fight telecast (via Mike Bohn of MMA Junkie) that he wasn’t sure of his ability against elite competition:

I don’t know if I can compete with the top people in the world (anymore). This is my first time losing three in a row. I’m not going to give up though. It’s not my last MMA fight. I might try some boxing. But no, I still want to fight; it’s still in my heart. I’ve just got a lot of reevaluating to do.

Jackson did have a successful run with Bellator, going 3-0 with wins over Joey Beltran, Christian M’Pumbu and Muhammed Lawal. Two of those wins came by knockout, which is a positive sign since he hadn’t won a UFC fight by stoppage since December 2008 against Wanderlei Silva. 

Maldonado is the perfect opponent for Jackson on his comeback tour. He’s an aging fighter at 35 years old who had his own three-fight losing streak with UFC in 2011-12 and has a pedestrian 5-4 mark with mixed martial arts’ top organization. 

That’s not to say Maldonado is out of his element against Jackson. Quite the opposite, actually. Elias Cepeda of Fox Sports came up with a logical scenario for Maldonado to win this fight:

Jackson could very well use his good wrestling to put Maldonado on his back, but he’ll have to have the endurance to do it over and over again, or keep him there. Maldonado is resilient and superbly conditioned — despite his appearance — and Jackson will have to show him stuff that he hasn’t shown many in years in order to be able to finish him.

That’s not a glowing review of how Maldonado can win, but it does paint a reasonable picture for the veteran fighter. Given some of the issues Jackson has had with his weight, going back to the Bader fight, and the fact that this bout won’t be fought at 205 pounds could cause Rampage to look softer than he normally would. 

It’s such a difficult fight to predict with any certainty because so much of it depends on which Jackson will show up. If he’s interested and wants to prove a point in his return to UFC, there’s no reason he shouldn’t win. 

Maldonado’s UFC wins aren’t an impressive collection. No one gets hyped seeing Hans Stringer or James McSweeney or Gian Villante on a fight card. 

Ryan Frederick of Wrestling Observer also noted that Maldonado’s boxing style is what Jackson likes and makes a nice contrast to the wrestlers like Jones, Bader and Teixeira that he was taking on before leaving:

He gets a match-up he should enjoy in fighting Fabio Maldonado, who is a boxer who likes to stand and exchange punches. Maldonado tires easily, but he is willing to take a beating in order to dish one out. Jackson likes to stand and trade and entertain the fans, so he has a perfect match-up for him. If both are at the top of their game, this could be an entertaining slugfest of a bout.

Assuming all things are equal, Jackson should win. Even at this stage of his career, the former UFC light heavyweight champion has the power and wrestling ability to get by a mid-level fighter. This is Jackson’s last chance to prove himself and make significant money in UFC. 

Sometimes the threat of becoming irrelevant can provide the kind of motivation a fighter like Jackson needs. UFC has put him in a prime spot to succeed, giving him the co-main event slot on the card, so it’s on him to make the most of it. 

Jackson will take his moment in the spotlight, though it’s going to come from the judges in a tense three-round affair. 

 

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