WEC 51 – Aldo VS. Gamburyan takes place tonight, September 30th in Broomfield, Colorado. WEC 51 is looking like one of the most stacked WEC cards in history, with four current or former WEC champions competing in addition to fan favorites like Leonard Garcia, Chan Sung Jung, Antonio Banuelos, and Charlie Valencia. The main event […]
WEC 51 – Aldo VS. Gamburyan takes place tonight, September 30th in Broomfield, Colorado. WEC 51 is looking like one of the most stacked WEC cards in history, with four current or former WEC champions competing in addition to fan favorites like Leonard Garcia, Chan Sung Jung, Antonio Banuelos, and Charlie Valencia. The main event will feature the #1 Featherweight in the world, and WEC Featherweight champion, Jose Aldo taking on former UFC competitor and TUF alum Manny Gamburyan. The co-main event features arguably the most desired rematch in MMA history, as hated rivals Jamie Varner and Donald Cerrone square off to settle the controversial ending to their first match up.
There are several solid betting opportunities on this card. In customary fashion, my friend Mike Hammersmith and I will be giving our best bets for this weekend’s WEC event. Before you place your bets, make sure to “line shop” by checking out the WEC 51 odds across several sports books, in addition to looking over the MMAMoneyLine Betting Guide and WEC 51 Pros’ Picks.
Speed kills. That’s about all I need to say here, as the fastest Featherweight on Earth takes on a two-legged glacier in Manny Gamburyan. Aldo simply brings too much depth of skill in the striking department, and while we haven’t seen much of his matwork, what we have seen makes me think he’s not kidding when he talks about his BJJ being better than his stand-up. This leaves few outs in a five round match for the grinding style of Gamburyan, and unless he can bring one of those hammers to bear on Aldo, I see him getting torn apart standing for as long as this fight lasts. The payout may be meager at -600, but easy money is easy money, and I wouldn’t pass up a hearty bet here.
Miguel Torres will look to reestablish himself in the division he once dominated, and having lost two in a row, finds himself against the well-rounded Charlie Valencia in a tune-up fight before bigger and better things. While Valencia is a decent all-around fighter, he’s fighting the king of all-around fighters in Torres, who’s equal parts murderous ground game and murderous stand-up game, with some murderous clinch game to smooth out those transitions. Valencia just doesn’t have anything to offer Torres, and while the odds aren’t fantastic at -430, this makes for a great match-up to parlay with the above Aldo vs. Gamburyan, or just as a way of gaining some low risk scratch.
Another great stand-up bout shuffled to the undercard, well-rounded fighter Diego Nunes will fight one of the biggest surprises in the WEC in Tyler Toner. Having fought nearly blind for his entire career, Toner was forced to get corrective surgery before his bout with tough Hawaiian Brandon “The Viper” Visher, and came into the fight with an ability that had been locked away by his handicap. Executing some of the best functional striking I’ve seen in recent years, Toner destroyed the heavy favorite in Visher and is poised to move into fringe contendership if he can make it past Nunes. Not to be outdone, Nunes showed he has some surprises as well in his last outing; hustling Rafael Assuncao with a combination of outside striking and takedowns that saw him to a split decision win.
This is a very important fight for both men, as it’ll land the winner deep inside the Featherweight division, and how this plays out really depends on how Nunes approaches it. If Nunes chooses to stand with Toner, I don’t think he’ll be able to avoid the multiple-angled attacks from the American, and may find himself on the wrong end of a vicious knockout. Nunes path to victory is therefore by takedowns, but Toner’s takedown defense and bottom game make that a dicey proposition as well.
In a 50/50 fight, Toner has the conditioning and KO power to hurt Nunes badly in this match, but Nunes takedowns and standing ability can save him here if he’s smart about it. While this is far from sure money, Toner comes in as a surprisingly heavy underdog at +160 and makes for a great pay out on a coin-flip bet.
I simply do not see this fight happening any differently than their first fight. Neither fighter has really improved, although both Jamie Varner and Donald Cerrone didn’t exactly have a ton of room for improvement. Both fighters are going to bring their usual bread and butter to tonight’s fight: Varner’s effective wrestling and exceptional boxing versus Cerrone’s dangerous guard game and dynamic Muay Thai. Both fighters are seasoned and tough, so neither Varner or Cerrone have the edge there.
Varner’s take downs and ground and pound did wonders in the first fight, and it should be no different here. Look for Varner to set up take downs with his hands and punish Cerrone while in his guard. Varner is tough to finish, so he is not going to be as susceptible as most to Cerrone’s attacking guard. Although Cerrone has the tools to beat anyone in the Lightweight division, Varner has the edge here and is a good bet at his current odds.
I differ with my counterpart here. Miguel Torres, coming off of two sound defeats, is a gigantic favorite over Charlie Valencia. Simply put, that ain’t right. I think many people have their doubts about Torres still being the beast he was when he was running roughshod through the WEC Bantamweight division. I am one of those people.
Charlie Valencia is one of the more veteran guys in the WEC who has been in the cage with some very tough opponents. He won’t be threatened or intimidated by Torres. In addition, Valencia has the same characteristics of the two men who most recently defeated Torres, Joseph Benavidez and Brian Bowles.
Miguel Torres probably wins this fight more than he loses it, but I put him at about 60%. His current odds reflect him as winning this fight an astonishing 81% of the time. Those odds are clearly off, and a play on the underdog Valencia is the smart bet.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Aldo/KO/2
Varner/UD
Valencia/SD
Jung/TKO/3
Hominick/UD
Zhang/TKO/1
Brown/SUB/2
Ratcliff/TKO/2
Banuelos/UD
Johnson/UD
Toner/TKO/2
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
UFC 119 takes place Saturday, September 25th in Indianapolis. Because of an injury to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, the main event stands as former UFC Heayweight champion Frank Mir versus former PRIDE Grand Prix winner Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic. The co-main event will feature two contending Light Heavyweights in Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Ryan Bader. In […]
UFC 119 takes place Saturday, September 25th in Indianapolis. Because of an injury to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, the main event stands as former UFC Heayweight champion Frank Mir versus former PRIDE Grand Prix winner Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic. The co-main event will feature two contending Light Heavyweights in Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Ryan Bader.
In customary fashion, my friend Mike Hammersmith will also be giving his best bets for this weekend’s event. Before you place your bets, make sure to “line shop” by checking out the UFC 119 odds across several sports books, in addition to looking over the MMAMoneyLine Betting Guide and UFC 119 Pros’ Picks.
Sometimes with odds, I feel like bookies and bettors get a notion into their head and no matter how many times they’re proven wrong, they don’t quite want to see it. Such is the case with CB Dollaway, whom despite a world of potential and plenty of talent on the wrestling mat, hasn’t really lived up to the TUF 7 hype. Since then, Dollaway has spent the majority of his UFC career either tapping out, going to sleep, or arguing about whether or not he tapped out, and will be facing more of the same when he takes on the ridiculously undervalued Joe Doerksen. With well over fifty MMA bouts under his belt and with over thirty wins by submission, the BJJ black belt Doerksen is a difficult match for a wrestler, and especially considering he’s likely the better striker of the two fighters. With an initial line of +260 for Doerksen, I’m stunned to see this hasn’t moved at all since being released, and recommend a mid-sized bet on this one in a close fight which likely goes in favor of Doerksen.
Somewhat of and old-school MMA dream match, Frank Mir and Mirko Cro-cop will finally collide inside the UFC cage, and makes for an excellent main event to the card. In looking at this fight, I’m really stunned by the comparative rate of progression, as Frank Mir has completely transformed himself in the last several years into a dynamic heavyweight, while Cro-cop remains a one-note kick-boxer. Mir comes into this fight as a huge favorite in my book, as he’s anything but foolish, and will have no problem coming up with and executing a game plan to dominate Cro-Cop. Short of a stunning KO, Mir will put this fight on the mat either from a shot or a clinch take down and Cro-Cop’s novice mat-work will do nothing to stop Mir from locking on a submission early in this one. Look for a quick take down and a quick kimura to put an end to this fight inside the first minute, making a strong bet at -240 a wise play.
Whether due to a rumored contractual issue, or just because the UFC felt like it, veteran kick boxer Mark Hunt finds himself inside the cage for a one-and-done affair, taking on hometown fighter Sean McCorkle. This fight is generating a lot of hype due to Hunt’s impressive “down-sizing”, going from roughly 300lbs, to looking like he could make Light Heavyweight for this one. A lot of times with fan favorites though, it’s important to look at the fighter with an honest eye, and doing so with Hunt reveals some ugly truths.
As much as it might upset some people to say, Mark Hunt was never a good fighter. While his ability to take a hit is legendary, walking through punches doesn’t do you any good if you can’t retaliate effectively, and Hunt’s KO power has been largely exaggerated over time. The fact of the matter is, Hunt hasn’t won a fight in over four years, and the one thing that could make him a difficulty here, that being his extreme low center of gravity, has apparently been trained off in the gym.
I would never call McCorkle a “hot prospect”, having watched his extensive YouTube collection, but looking at this honestly, I can’t see Hunt winning here. Being a 5’10″ Heavyweight hasn’t been a realistic ambition since UFC 6, and the fact McCorkle comes into this fight with nine inches of height and a true Heavyweight build makes this a foregone conclusion. McCorkle should have little trouble putting an undersized Hunt on the mat and imposing his will for a TKO stoppage late in the fight. While UFC newcomers are a risk to bet on, McCorkle coming in at +190 makes for a great payout on something that should be a foregone conclusion.
Both Melvin Guillard and Jeremy Stephens have really been stepping up their respective game as of late. With that being said, I do believe Guillard has always had better tools than Stephens and now arguably has better training at Jackson’s camp.
Both guys are strong, tough, and hit hard. I don’t expect much wrestling or many submission attempts in this fight (although it wouldn’t be a bad strategy for either fighter). While Guillard’s chin is far from granite, he has the power of a Welterweight. Guillard’s hand speed and aggression is going to be tough to deal with…a much different striker than Sam Stout. While Stephens does have the power to turn Melvin’s lights off, he is going to have to be on the defensive for the beginning of this fight. I expect Stephens to get clipped with a hard right then ground and pounded to a first round TKO loss.
This fight already happened in 2006, with Serra getting the nod in a split decision that could have went either way. Here we are 4 years later with the same two exciting fighters going at it again. I do think this fight will be Fight of the Night by the way.
I can’t shake the feeling of Lytle winning this fight easily. Chris Lytle is next to impossible to stop in a fight…his only stoppage losses in about 50 fights were TKOs from cuts. I don’t think Serra can stay out of danger for 15 minutes against a guy like Lytle. Chris Lytle is serious competition for anyone at Welterweight…and Serra doesn’t have what it takes to stop him. Lytle takes a unanimous decision victory here against a tough Matt Serra.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Mir/SUB/2
Bader/UD
Lytle/UD
Dunham/SUB/1
Guillard/TKO/1
Doerksen/SUB/2
Mitrione/SD
Grant/SUB/3
Tavares/UD
Hunt/KO/2
Lopez/UD
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
MMABettingBlog WatchKalibRun MMAConvert MiddleEasy MMAAdNet MMAValor MMAHive Total Frank Mir vs. Mirko Filipovic Mir Mir Filipovic – Mir Mir Mir Mir 83% Ryan Bader vs. Rogerio Nogueira Nogueira Bader Nogueira – Nogueira Bader Nogueira Nogueira 67% Chris Lytle vs. Matt Serra Serra Lytle Lytle – Serra Lytle Serra EVEN Evan […]
MMABettingBlog WatchKalibRun MMAConvert MiddleEasy MMAAdNet MMAValor MMAHive Total Nate Marquardt vs. Rousimar Palhares Marquardt Marquardt Marquardt – Marquardt Marquardt Marquardt Marquardt 100% Efrain Escudero vs. Charles Oliveira Oliveira Oliveira Oliveira – Oliveira Oliveira Escudero Oliveira 83% Jim Miller vs. Gleison Tibau Tibau Miller Tibau – Miller Miller Tibau TIE Ross […]
UFC Fight Night 22 happens tonight, September 15th in Austin, Texas. The main event features former Middleweight number 1 contender Nate “The Great” Marquardt facing off against the physically imposing Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt Rousimar Palhares. The main card also features UFC sophmore Charles Oliveria versus former TUF winner Efrain Escudero and another TUF […]
UFC Fight Night 22 happens tonight, September 15th in Austin, Texas. The main event features former Middleweight number 1 contender Nate “The Great” Marquardt facing off against the physically imposing Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt Rousimar Palhares. The main card also features UFC sophmore Charles Oliveria versus former TUF winner Efrain Escudero and another TUF winner Ross Pearson taking on Cole Miller.
In my opinion, I don’t see many great value bets on this card. However, there is still money to be made for sharp bettors and keen researchers. As usual, myself and my friend Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive will give our best bets for the upcoming event. I recommend checking out the latest UFC Fight Night 22 odds in addition to the UFC Fight Night 22 Pros’ Picks before placing any wagers. For you novice bettors out there, make sure to peruse MMAMoneyLine’s MMA Betting Guide before throwing your money down.
TUF champions have a habit of transforming into real killers once they get the funding and recognition to excel in this sport, and Pearson is certainly on that track. Armed with an iron jaw, murderous inside boxing combinations, and a gas tank for days, it’ll take a very specific opponent to put a halt on his ascent in the division. Cole Miller, while a decent fighter in his own right, comes into this bout with possibly the worst skill-set one can have for dealing with Pearson, and may be the biggest dog on this card. Miller suffers from a suspect chin, a lack of real power in his strikes, and insufficient wrestling to get this fight on the mat, making for either a long night, or an abrupt end to this bout.
Pearson has the chin and standing defense to walk through anything Miller throws, and once he starts getting his timing down, it’ll be mere moments before the English bulldozer gets inside on Miller and lights him up. While the odds aren’t fantastic, taking Pearson at -260 makes for a great anchor bet for the night.
An interesting fight featuring a TUF 11 fighter who was sidelined with injury, taking on a mid-level contender looking to move up. Attonito had a successful, although odd bout with Kyacey Uscola on TUF where he won via DQ, yet broke his hand and was forced out of the competition. Under the circumstances, he was given a chance to work his way into the UFC ranks, and did so in impressive fashion against no one’s favorite cast member Jamie Yager with a come-from-behind TKO victory. Rafael Natal, on the other hand, has worked his way through the regional circuits of Brazil and America, coming to the public eye on the Moosin PPV where he soundly defeated UFC veteran Travis Lutter with a harsh KO victory.
Generally when dealing with TUF fighters, you have to give them the benefit of the doubt in their training, as they tend to flourish once given a few sponsors and the opportunity for top-level training. With that in mind, this is a real toss-up fight, as both men are defensively weak standing, while having KO power, meaning this could end at any time. Surprisingly, Attonito has come in as a huge underdog in this fight at +155 and makes for the best dog bet on the card, in my opinion.
Efrain Escudero loses a fight against Evan Dunham, who is looking more and more like a legitimate Lightweight title contender. Charles Oliveira wins a fight against a relatively unaccomplished Darren Elkins. Because of these two results, the line on this fight is far closer than it should be. Welcome to the world of MMA betting, a world where being able to identify the difference between losses against good competition and wins against poor competition can make you a good amount of money.
This is what Charles Oliveria is: one hell of a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu player and a very hot prospect. Here is what Charles Oliveira isn’t: a decent striker, a quality wrestler, or a fighter who has faced quality competition. Efrain Escudero has already established himself in the biggest MMA promotion in the world with wins over Dan Lauzon and Cole Miller. Escudero has also played the role of “prospect derailer” in his win at the TUF 8 finale against over-hyped Phillipe Nover.
Oliveira certainly has the chops to hand Escudero his second straight submission loss, however he is going to have put a very dangerous Escudero in that position first. Escudero has better striking, better wrestling, and has an aggressive pace and ferocity that will be difficult for such an inexperienced fighter to deal with. Escudero was beating Dunham up until he got caught, and I expect a similar fight with a different result. Escudero controls all three rounds en route to an impressive unanimous decision victory.
From where I sit, Anthony Waldburger and David Mitchell have many similarities. Waldburger has 10 submission wins, Mitchell has 9 submission wins. Waldburger has experience with serious competition like Pat Healy, Ricardo Funch, Pete Spratt, Josh Neer, and Brian Foster. Mitchell has fought tough mixed martial artists like Tim McKenzie, Poppies Martinez, and War Machine. Waldburger’s biggest weakness has been his chin, having 4 knockout losses. However, Mitchell has no KO wins on his record.
In a fight like this, you have to look at the odds. Mitchell is inexplicably a moderate favorite, while Waldburger is a +170 ‘dog. A bet on Waldburger is simple betting mathematics: he wins this fight about 50% of the time while the sports books are giving him a 37% chance. Taking advantage on edges like this can be more important that really thinking Waldburger will win more than he loses.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Marquardt/TKO/3
Escudero/UD
Tibau/SD
Pearson/TKO/2
Edwards/KO/1
Hamman/UD
Drwal/TKO/2
Natal/SUB/2
Waldburger/SUB/1
Foster/TKO/3
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
