Author: Ben Fowlkes

It’s not exactly star-studded, but Saturday night’s UFC Fight Night 25 offers a compelling main event on free TV, and a chance for a couple of faces we haven’t seen in a while to get back into the conversation.

All that, plus…did I mention it’s free? Something to consider when Floyd Mayweather and Victor Ortiz come asking for your money.

But before the action goes down in New Orleans, it’s time again to sort through the betting odds and see who’s overvalued and who’s overlooked. And who knows, maybe you find a better use for the 65 bucks in pay-per-view dollars that you save by watching this instead of boxing.

Jake Shields (-200) vs. Jake Ellenberger (+160)

Is it utterly reprehensible to take Shields’ father’s death into account when examining betting odds and making pre-fight picks? Probably, yeah. It’s also not something you can really ignore, since it had to effect his preparation for this fight. People can make a big deal about Brett Favre playing a football game after his father died, but that’s just one night of setting your grief aside. It’s got to be even tougher to keep going through the grind of a training camp after something like that. I don’t know how he did it, but it tells you something about Shields’ dedication and focus. That said, Ellenberger would have been a decent underdog pick at these odds without any personal distractions factored in. He’s a fantastic athlete with a good all-around game, and his only loss in the UFC came via an extremely close split decision against Carlos Condit. This is a guy who stands a very real chance of beating Shields, and let’s be honest, Shields has yet to turn in a truly impressive performance in his two UFC bouts.
My pick: Ellenberger. He’s a great underdog choice at these odds, and wouldn’t even be a bad selection in a straight-up pick.

Court McGee (-165) vs. Dongi Yang (+135)

McGee’s been out of action nearly a year, and that’s always a red flag. That’s not to say he couldn’t come back looking as sharp as ever, but it’s tough to do. Fortunately for him, Yang is not the toughest of opponents to jump back into the fray against. He’s a threat to take you down and pound you out, but his lone UFC win came against Rob Kimmons, who is, as they say, no longer with the organization. I’m still not convinced that McGee is one of the TUF winners who will go on to do great things in the Octagon, but who knows? We’ve only seen him in one post-TUF bout since he won the finale in June of 2010. I think he wins this one, but with his injury layoff I don’t feel comfortable enough with it to risk letting it ruin my precious parlay.
My pick: Nobody. What, I can’t stand up for my rights and refuse to pick every now and then? Okay, if you’re putting a gun to my head, then I’ll take McGee. But as soon as you put that gun away I’m back to picking nobody.

Erik Koch (-200) vs. Jonathan Brookins (+160)

Brookins is another TUF winner who more or less dropped off the map after his time on the show. He wrestled his way to a win at the finale and hasn’t fought since, so how much can we possibly know about how he’ll perform? On the flip side, Koch is a legitimately dangerous featherweight whose only career loss is to Chad Mendes, and there’s no shame in that. The last time we saw Koch he was looking fierce with a knockout win over Raphael Assuncao at UFC 128. If he can stay off his back here, there’s ample reason to believe he could give a repeat performance against Brookins. Oddsmakers seem to think so too, so there’s not much juice to be squeezed out of this one.
My pick: Koch. But he’s just too big a favorite to put in my parlay this time around.

Alan Belcher (-315) vs. Jason MacDonald (+245)

Once again, the layoff factor rears its ugly head. Belcher has been out since his submission win over Patrick Cote in May of 2010, dealing with serious eye issues that at one point seemed potentially career-ending. He’s got all that sorted out now, he says, but coming back against a big, tough grappler like MacDonald after nearly a year and a half out of the cage isn’t so easy. Skill-for-skill, Belcher should beat MacDonald. He’s a much better striker and probably has good enough takedown defense to keep MacDonald from getting it to the mat. But you just don’t know how a guy’s timing and conditioning will be after he’s gone so long without being in a fight that really matters. All things being equal, Belcher deserves to be a 3-1 favorite. But all things are rarely equal, and so it is here.
My pick: MacDonald. I have to go with at least one crazy underdog per card. I’m not so much betting on MacDonald here as I am betting against Belcher’s ability to jump right back in after so much time away.

Quick Picks:

– Mike Lullo (+130) over Robert Peralta (-160). Lullo lost his first UFC bout to Edson Barboza, but so would a lot of people. Peralta seemed not quite ready for primetime in his last Strikeforce fight.

– Donny Walker (+135) over Ken Stone (-165). Walker looked decent while losing his UFC debut via decision, but really, this is about Stone. He’s been knocked out badly in his last two fights, one of which was a frightening slam KO at the hands of Eddie Wineland. It seems to take less and less to put him out these days.

The ‘For Entertainment Purposes Only’ Parlay: Ellenberger + MacDonald + Lullo + Walker (crazier than normal, I know, but sometimes you’ve just got to round up a bunch of underdogs and see how far ten bucks can take you).

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Between Nick Diaz’s antics, Strikeforce’s uncertain future, and HHH’s comments on the UFC, there was no shortage of discussion topics for this edition of the Twitter Mailbag (TMB, if you’re nasty).

If you’d like to ask your own question or just personally harass me until I block you, you can find me on Twitter @BenFowlkesMMA. Now let’s do this thing…

@LoganasaurusRex is Carlos Condit really more dangerous to GSP’s throne than Diaz? I felt that Diaz brought the whole “I’m crazy as [expletive]” edge

I still think Diaz is a more dangerous opponent than Condit, but not because he is crazy as [expletive]. Him being crazy as [expletive] certainly makes him a more interesting opponent, mostly because you know he’ll keep getting in St-Pierre’s face until the end, which is exactly what GSP’s last few opponents have failed to do.

But what really makes Diaz the tougher style match-up is his jiu-jitsu. Very few MMA fighters represent a true threat off their backs the way he does, which makes taking him down a risky strategy. Condit doesn’t have that in his arsenal, or at least he hasn’t shown it much, so he has to rely more on takedown defense and striking power. Will that be enough? I doubt it, but you still can’t count a guy like that out. All he needs is one good opening.

@VineStreetLife Do you have any insight regarding the difficult situation Jake Shields is in? I think Ellenberger pulls the upset, regardless.

Honestly, I have no clue what he must be going through right now. His father was not only, you know, his father, but also his manager. He was such a big part of his personal and professional life. I certainly can’t imagine losing my dad and then getting up the next morning and going down to the gym.

That’s what I think will be the biggest concern for Shields. Once he’s in the cage, I’m sure his focus will be on the man across from him. But where was his head in the difficult weeks leading up to the fight, which is when fights are usually won and lost? He’s a trooper for sticking this out and staying in the bout, but I don’t know how he managed it.

@cthulhukitten what is the correct way to apply lipstick?

While staring at yourself in the mirror and repeating over and over again, ‘You’re a star!’

@Orderx7 what are your thoughts on HHHs comments about the UFC?

No disrespect to Mr. H, whose work I have enjoyed over the years, but there’s a man who sees everything through the prism of the pro wrestling world. When he says the UFC needs to “evolve” because sometimes fights are “long and boring,” he’s saying that as a person who’s accustomed to a business where outcomes are pre-determined and scripted. If you had a choice, sure, you’d like all fights to be thrilling wars. But in unscripted sports it just doesn’t always work that way. There are boring MMA fights. There are boring football games too, but it doesn’t hurt the overall popularity of the sport.

In his interview, HHH claimed that the WWE doesn’t need to evolve in part because “…one of the things about us, if you look at us solely from a sports standpoint, is that we always give you a good show.” For one thing, that’s not always true, and any wrestling fan who has ever sat through a plodding, interminable match knows it. For another, when HHH says ‘from a sports standpoint,’ he should swap out the word ‘sports’ for the word ‘entertainment.’ A sport is a competition. Pro wrestlers are often great athletes who are extremely physically and mentally tough, but they’re performing out there — not competing.

That’s fine, and that’s the business they’re in. But it doesn’t have much bearing on MMA, where fighters don’t get to decide beforehand who will win and who will lose.

@Chris_a46 after a 0-3 under Zuffa for Fedor would a 3-0 outside of Strikefore against the likes of Jeff Monson be enough to get back in?

It’s not just who Fedor beats (assuming he does, in fact, win all the fights that M-1 lines up for him) but what his contract demands are. You’ll recall that the UFC tried to sign him already, but his management wanted much, much more than Zuffa was willing to give. Even with wins over Monson and whoever else M-1 can scrape up now that almost all the quality heavyweights are with Zuffa (including Monson, who said he got permission from Strikeforce to take this fight), Fedor will never get back to where he was two years ago. If his management agrees to terms that reflect that, he could potentially end up back under the Zuffa banner. My guess is he retires before he gets three more fights under his belt, though.

@atxsteve17 Would you continue to employ someone that always makes you look bad publicly, like Diaz does to Dana White?

I would if I worked in a business where a little personal drama was good for the bottom line. Remember, White continued to employ Tito Ortiz even after the HBBB wore a t-shirt to a weigh-in that read, ‘Dana Is My B—h’. White and Ortiz have been at each other’s throats for years, but the relationship, while contentious and downright bitter at times, is still profitable.

White says he’ll never trust Nick Diaz again, but I think you can always trust Diaz to be Diaz. No-showing a couple press conferences isn’t an offense worthy of termination (at least, not yet), and Diaz is still a great fighter who people want to watch. I just hope that now that he’s given up more money than he could stuff in his Honda Civic, all because he couldn’t board an airplane and go to a press conference, he’ll get the point.

@The_Lutfi Why are you a Chargers fan in Montana? Have they always stunk on special teams?

Because I attended college at the illustrious San Diego State University. And no, not always, just mostly.

@ltw0303 If GSP beats Condit and Diaz beats Penn then don’t you have to make GSP vs Diaz again? If you don’t who’s left for GSP? #mailbag

You’re absolutely correct, which is one reason why I thought it a little bizarre that the UFC chose to rebook Diaz on the same card it had pulled him from, and against Penn. I get it, Penn needed an opponent once Condit got moved up to the main event, but a) giving Diaz a slightly easier fight against another big name opponent is not such an effective punishment (though, again, he still lost a bunch of money in the deal), and b) if he wins, he’s right back in the title picture.

Perhaps the tougher question is, what happens if GSP and Penn both win? Does anybody outside of the Hawaiian islands really want to see another GSP-Penn fight? If that’s the scenario we end up with, look for the UFC to pressure St-Pierre to start putting on weight and thinking about Anderson Silva.

@FightChixJake what is your travel diet like?

I try to incorporate all the major food groups: hamburgers, fried food, beer, coffee, gummy bears. It takes discipline, but I think I’m worth it.

@jmhawkins With the @ufc heading to Japan in late Feb when they’ve normally had the Sydney show – where does this leave Aussie MMA fans?

I’m going to take a wild guess and say that you, good sir, may be one of those Aussie fans you refer to. I’m also going to guess that you may be a little annoyed at the thought of the UFC skipping over you in order to break into Japan. Sadly, this is the reality of the UFC’s quest for global domination. As the Romans learned, you can only expand so far before you finally have to cool it and build a wall. For your sake, I hope Australia gets another event soon. For my sake, I hope that I get to go cover it.

@highrevphoto how long until Zuffa stops wasting everyones time and just dissolves Strikeforce? What’s the hold up, showtime contracts?

Showtime contracts are certainly a big part of it, but that deal reportedly runs out in early 2012, and with the poor ratings recently it seems unlikely that Showtime will want to exercise its option to extend it. My guess is that Strikeforce will not survive another year, which is probably a good thing, considering how many good fighters are currently stuck in premium cable purgatory over there. The more difficult question isn’t when Strikeforce will be dissolved, but how many of its fighters will get UFC contracts out of the deal. It could be a lot fewer than many are expecting.

@SlyBoston Do you think being under the influence of psychedelics such as LSD while fighting in an MMA bout should be illegal?

I have to admit that I initially though this question was amusing, but forgettable. Then I got to thinking about it, and then it plunged me into a philosophical crisis. For the record, I don’t think it’s a good idea to fight while under the influence of psychedelic drugs. Or, really, any drugs. Most athletic commissions won’t let you drink a Red Bull in the locker room, so no, you should probably not be dropping acid before you fight another human being for money.

But then, it’s not performance-enhancing. I remember back when Nick Diaz’s win over Takanori Gomi was overturned due to the incredible amount of THC in his system, I passionately argued that, while he might deserve a fine and even suspension, the win should stand. Most of the fighters I talked to at the time insisted that they thought he should get a bonus for winning a fight with that much marijuana in his system.

So LSD? Probably a bad idea, not to mention illegal, but if I’m the guy’s opponent I’m probably a lot less worried about him being on psychedelics that will only enhance his appreciation of The Doors than I am about him being on testosterone, which could enhance his training camp and his performance on fight night.

@MMAGameBoard Who/where do you see Hendo fighting next? What was your personal best live experience?

I’m going to be an optimist and say Dan Henderson will fight in the UFC next, since that’s where the most interesting fights are. It’s not out of the question that he sticks around in Strikeforce, where a bout with Mo Lawal would be legitimately compelling, but the mere thought of the UFC and Strikeforce negotiating against each other for Hendo’s services just confuses and saddens me. He could fight Anderson Silva tomorrow and I’d watch it, though I’d still pick Silva.

As for the second part of your question, UFC Rio was certainly memorable, as was seeing Randy Couture fight in Portland, Ore. But the best live experience, oddly enough, was the final WEC event in Glendale, Ariz.

There wasn’t a single boring fight on that card, and it concluded with the infamous Showtime kick by Anthony Pettis. I remember watching it and thinking, no, that couldn’t have happened. He couldn’t have just jumped off the fence with that kick, right? I actually had to watch the replay before I could believe my own eyes. I’ll never forget that night, nor will I forget the truly horrible microwave pizza I ate back at my hotel a few hours later. Seriously, one of my all-time top three worst pizza experiences. Stuff like that really stays with you.

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