Author: Ben Fowlkes

Fighter vs. Writer: UFC 132 Picks with Joseph Benavidez

Filed under: UFCNot only is Joseph Benavidez one of the wittiest fighters in the game, he also knows as much or more than anyone about the two main event participants at UFC 132.

Plus, he’s a Joe-Jitsu black belt tie-dye belt and a skilled (or so I h…

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Joseph BenavidezNot only is Joseph Benavidez one of the wittiest fighters in the game, he also knows as much or more than anyone about the two main event participants at UFC 132.

Plus, he’s a Joe-Jitsu black belt tie-dye belt and a skilled (or so I hear) bowler, so why wouldn’t I want to sit down with him for this edition of Fighter vs. Writer?

Benavidez fought two memorable fights with Cruz, and has spent the last few years as one of Urijah Faber’s main training partners, so he has a perspective on this fight that few can match. It’s probably not hard to tell who he’s picking in Saturday night’s main event, but does he have what it takes to go pick-for-pick on the rest of the main card with yours truly? Find out below.

Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber

Benavidez: Faber via submission. “He’s been my main training partner for four years, and I’ve just seen the way he works and the goals he sets for himself. For all these four years, I’ve never seen him more inspired and motivated for a fight. He’s a big part of the WEC going to the UFC, so this is huge for him. He’s a guy who rises to the occasion, and this is the biggest of occasions for him. Not only that, but he obviously has the skills. Dominick will be hard to hit, but he doesn’t do much damage, and Urijah has the grappling edge.”

Fowlkes: Cruz via decision. He’s just too fast and too hard to pin down. He may not have the power to knock Faber out, but I doubt Faber will be able to put his hands on Cruz very much at all, so I’m not sure how much it matters. Faber was a true champ in his time, but that time is over.


Chris Leben vs. Wanderlei Silva

Benavidez: Silva via TKO. “Before the Stann fight I didn’t think Leben could get knocked out, but he did, so I guess it could happen again if they’re going to sit there and slug. Wanderlei could definitely catch him with a punch. I think they are going to stand there and swing at each other, and Leben will go down. Plus, Wanderlei’s a legend, so I kind of root for him, even though I love watching Leben fight also.”

Fowlkes: Leben via TKO. Obviously Silva is a sentimental favorite, but I don’t think his chin is nearly as solid as it once was, and being out of action for 16 months won’t exactly make him sharper in the cage. Even if they throw down in the center of the cage, Leben can take it and dish it out better at this point.

Tito Ortiz vs. Ryan Bader

Benavidez: Ortiz via decision. “I think Tito is going to prove a lot of people wrong and come out with a comeback here — maybe not a total comeback — but I think he’ll go out there and get the win, old school ground-and-pound style. I actually think Tito’s boxing is a lot better too.”

Fowlkes: Bader via decision. I admire Benavidez’s optimism, but I’m not such a believer in Ortiz’s boxing, nor do I think he’s right about Bader having weak takedown defense. Bader is younger, quicker, and more explosive. I don’t see where Ortiz holds an advantage.

Carlos Condit vs. Dong Hyun Kim

Benavidez: Condit via TKO. “He’s always in a super exciting fight and puts just this horrendous pace on people. He really lives up to his name: ‘The Natural Born Killer.’ He goes in there and tries to kill you. He’s going to put a lot of pressure on Kim and get the victory by stoppage.”

Fowlkes: Condit by TKO. Kim absolutely has the power to turn this into a grappling match, and if he does, he can absolutely win it there. But I don’t see Condit going out like that. He’ll come back late in the fight and overwhelm Kim with sheer aggression.

Matt Wiman vs. Dennis Siver

Benavidez: Wiman via decision. “That’s a tough one. Wiman has really good wrestling and has been putting it on people lately, but so has Siver. With Wiman though, I think he’s really hitting his stride right now, and this is going to be one that really catapults him to that next level where he wants to be at in the division.”

Fowlkes: Siver via decision. I simply cannot pick against the underrated Siver, who consistently surprises people and then melts back into the background to be forgotten and then underrated once again. His takedown defense will keep this one standing, and his power will keep Wiman reeling.

Tiebreaker: time of shortest fight

Benavidez: 2:35 of round 1.
Fowlkes: 1:57 of round 1

Benavidez picks Faber, Silva, Ortiz, Condit, Wiman
Fowlkes picks Cruz, Leben, Bader, Condit, Siver

 

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UFC 132: By the Odds

LAS VEGAS — As I relaxed in the sportsbook at the MGM Grand earlier this afternoon, patiently awaiting my complimentary domestic beer and listening to the sounds of tourists gawking at caged lions nearby, I found myself mesmerized by the one prop bet …

Dominick Cruz Urijah FaberLAS VEGAS — As I relaxed in the sportsbook at the MGM Grand earlier this afternoon, patiently awaiting my complimentary domestic beer and listening to the sounds of tourists gawking at caged lions nearby, I found myself mesmerized by the one prop bet the MGM was offering on UFC 132.

If you think the Cruz-Faber main event won’t go the distance, it turns out that you can profit to the tune of $180 for every $100 wagered (that’s what +180 means, smart guy). If you think it will go the distance, you have to put down $220 to make $100 (also known as -220). I’m not ashamed to admit that I must have spent fifteen minutes looking at those odds and trying to talk myself into believing that this fight won’t go the full five, even though I know it probably will.

See, that’s how Vegas gets you. You know there’s a reason for the long odds on some options, but you want to believe. You want to believe in longshots and Tito Ortiz comebacks. In free Cirque du Soleil tickets and especially lucky slot machines. And yet, they didn’t build these monstrous casinos because so many people win. In the end, that free domestic is probably the best deal you’re going to find.

But enough deep thinking. Let’s take a look at how some of Vegas’ sharpest minds see the action going down at UFC 132.

Dominick Cruz (-130) vs. Urijah Faber (+110)

Here’s a fight that’s all about speed. Cruz has it in spades, and Faber seems to be losing just a little more of it with each passing year. That’s not to say he’s some slow, broke-down old man, of course. Faber is still one heck of an athlete and an incredibly versatile fighter. But his biggest asset against a hummingbird like Cruz is going to be his mind. Not only is he a veteran who can adapt as the fight goes on, he’s also just so mentally strong that you know you’re not going to break him. Cruz has to stay busy and pepper him with those unpredictable combos of his, whereas Faber needs to get in close and slow this fight down in the clinch and on the mat. The fact that oddsmakers favor Cruz — but just slightly — tells you what they think of cage savvy against indefatigable quickness.
My pick: Cruz. I’ll save it for the parlay, but I think he’ll put Faber on the defensive with his speed and keep him there for five rounds.

Chris Leben (+150) vs. Wanderlei Silva (-170)

The first time I saw this line, I felt sure there had to be some mistake. Did some vandal come along and swap the plus and the minus? Were the bookmakers aware that it is in fact Silva who has been out for the last year and a half, and not Leben? I just don’t get it. I suppose if they square up and throw bombs, you could argue that it’s anybody’s fight. But even then, Silva doesn’t have the chin he once did. And even though Leben got KO’d by Stann, it still took some doing. The way to beat Leben is with straight, crisp punching and enough foot speed to stay away from his left. Silva isn’t known for any of that, especially in recent years. I can see why fans still go for him as a nostalgia pick, but the Pride days are over and time has marched grimly on.
My pick: Leben. I’m not the type of guy to advise you to bet the house, take out a second mortgage, and then bet that too — but if I were that type of guy…

Carlos Condit (even) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (-120)

This is probably the most competitive and most overlooked fight on the card. Kim is a big welterweight who can absolutely smother you on the mat, but Condit just has that raw, tear-your-head-off aggression. The problem is, you come charging in with blind hooks against Kim and you’re going to get taken down. I expect Kim to control the first part of the bout with his patient, methodical grappling, but Condit is never all the way out of the fight until the final bell. His best chance to catch Kim is when the takedown attempts have slowed and he’s entered full-scale desperation mode. Then, his finishing power could make all the difference. If it goes to the judges though, it’s Kim’s night.
My pick: Condit, but this one’s too close. It’s a great way to toss your money out the window, and it has the potential to screw up an otherwise perfect parlay. I’m leaving it alone.

Tito Ortiz (+350) vs. Ryan Bader (-450)

Okay, so you’ve been a huge Tito fan since 1999, and you’d like nothing more than to cash in on your Huntington Beach hero now that everyone else is writing him off. I get that — really, I do. But let me ask you this: how, exactly, do you see Ortiz winning this fight? He’s not going to stand there and outstrike the heavy-handed Bader because, well, when’s the last time he did that to anyone decent? And he’s probably not going to take the guy down and keep him on his back for three rounds because a) Bader knows a thing or two about wrestling, and b) Ortiz is not Jon Jones. So then what? It’s not as if an Ortiz victory is out of the question, but he has so few realistic ways to win. Sorry, but it isn’t 1999 anymore, and Bader isn’t Jerry Bohlander.
My pick: Bader. You won’t make any money off him, but at least you won’t lose it by taking a big risk on Ortiz.

Matt Wiman (+115) vs. Dennis Siver (-135)

Style-wise, you’d think Wiman might have the edge on Siver. But there’s just something about that stocky, scrappy German that makes it impossible to really count him out. Few people gave him much of a chance against Sotiropoulos, but look how that turned out. His takedown defense is solid and he can always hurt you on the feet. If you’re unfortunate enough to be on the business end of one of those spinning backkicks, you probably won’t breathe right for a week.
My pick: Siver. I’ll put it in the parlay, but I can’t go against Siver in any reasonable match-up.

Quick picks:

Anthony Njokuani (-150) over Andre Winner (+120). The man with the last name that everyone pronounces differently is too fast and too dynamic on the feet for Winner to handle.

Melvin Guillard (-280) over Shane Roller (+220). You won’t profit much off this one, but Guillard — at least when he has his act together, as I believe he does now — is a handful for anyone.

The ‘For Entertainment Purposes Only’ Parlay: Cruz + Leben + Bader + Njokuani + Guillard.

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UFC 132 Weigh-In Results

Filed under: UFCLAS VEGAS — All fighters made weight for Saturday night’s UFC 132 fight card at the MGM Grand here on Friday afternoon, and UFC bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz shared an intense face-off with challenger Urijah Faber to close out th…

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LAS VEGAS — All fighters made weight for Saturday night’s UFC 132 fight card at the MGM Grand here on Friday afternoon, and UFC bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz shared an intense face-off with challenger Urijah Faber to close out the proceedings.

Not surprisingly, the two declined to shake hands when it was over, as their history together hasn’t exactly been an amicable one. Faber told the fans in attendance that his plan for Saturday was to “have fun and win that belt,” while Cruz confronted a chorus boos before vowing to get Faber in the cage and “whoop him” in the UFC 132 main event.

Full weigh-in results are below.

Pay-Per-View Bouts
Dominick Cruz (134) vs. Urijah Faber (135)
Wanderlei Silva (186) vs. Chris Leben (185)
Tito Ortiz (205) vs. Ryan Bader (205)
Carlos Condit (170) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (171)
Dennis Siver (156) vs. Matt Wiman (156)

Spike TV Preliminary Bouts
George Sotiropoulos (156) vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (155)
Melvin Guillard (155) vs. Shane Roller (155)

Preliminary Bouts
Brad Tavares (186) vs. Aaron Simpson (185)
Brian Bowles (135) vs. Takeya Mizugaki (136)
Anthony Njokuani (156) vs. Andre Winner (155)
Jeff Hougland (135) vs. Donny Walker (135)

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Dana White Understands Recent Spike TV Moves, but Warns ‘I Owe You One’

Filed under: UFCLAS VEGAS — UFC president Dana White isn’t known as a man who suffers slings and arrows gladly, but Spike TV’s recent slights against his organization are so brazen that even White has to smile with begrudging admiration when the topic…

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LAS VEGAS — UFC president Dana White isn’t known as a man who suffers slings and arrows gladly, but Spike TV’s recent slights against his organization are so brazen that even White has to smile with begrudging admiration when the topic comes up.

“I said last time I did an interview and we were talking about it, negotiating is never fun. …And even though you’re negotiating in good faith and doing all this stuff, you know, you’re still giving some kicks to the balls here and there,” White said with a wry smile.

For Spike, those kicks have come in the form of some not-so-subtle recent programming decisions.

Once the UFC’s most valued TV partner, Spike’s contract with the UFC is now coming to an end. Judging by its decision to counter-program last Sunday’s UFC Live event on Versus and then premiere the UFC 132 “Countdown” show at the conspicuously unhelpful time of 1:12 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Spike seems to be firmly in the process of waving goodbye to the UFC and slamming the door shut behind it.

“I see Spike’s side,” White said when asked to comment on the network’s recent moves. “That’s what I would do too, and you guys know I would do that.”

At the same time, White insisted that the UFC has no new TV deal as of yet, despite reports that it’s looking to essentially have its own cable channel by purchasing an ownership stake in the G4 channel, and said that the UFC has not yet ruled out the possibility of staying with Spike in the end.

“Again, what The Wall Street Journal put out and what everyone is saying, none of that stuff is true. People are out there speculating about what’s going on. We have no deal with anybody. We’re out there talking to everybody. So I don’t buy into that stuff, but when deals are done and everybody does what they’re going to do, then we’ll see what happens.”

But a source at Spike, speaking on the condition of anonymity, indicated that the company has essentially abandoned any notion of a new deal with the UFC, since it believes the UFC is “very close to a deal with G4.”

“They want their own channel, and this is an opportunity for their own channel,” the source said.

As for the programming moves, it’s “pretty obvious why we’re doing what we’re doing,” the source said, but it hasn’t resulted in any animosity between UFC and Spike employees.

“We’re all just doing our jobs,” said the source.

But just because the UFC may be moving on, that doesn’t mean Spike will be content to get out of the MMA business altogether. It has reportedly shown interest in a deal with Bellator, which currently airs on MTV2 and is thus, as the Spike source pointed out, already “in the Viacom family.”

White downplayed those rumors in conversations with reporters this week, but it’s no secret that the UFC president is known to go after competitors with a gusto. With Spike sending the UFC out on a sour note amid talk that it might partner with Bellator down the road, does that mean the cable channel has just picked a fight with the UFC?

“They might’ve,” White shrugged. “We’ll see. …I owe you one, Spike.”

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The Cut List: Who’s in Desperate Need of a Win at UFC 132?

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Tito OrtizIt’s no big secret: no one needs win at UFC 132 worse than Tito Ortiz. Then again, we said the same thing at UFC 121. He lost a decision there and managed to hold on to his job by the follicles of his bleached blonde hair, so we already know that the normal rules don’t quite apply to him.

But this time, Dana White swears, this time he’s really on the chopping block. Do we believe him? Well, after the tired look on his face when discussing his most recent Tito headache with Ariel Helwani yesterday, it’s kind of hard not to.

Ortiz isn’t the only one who can’t afford to post another L on his record this Saturday night, however. For a look at the fighters who really need to win to stay employed, follow me below.

Tito Ortiz (15-8-1, 14-8-1 UFC)
Who he’s fighting: Ryan Bader
Why he’s in danger: Come on, you know why. As Dana White pointed out on Thursday, Ortiz doesn’t have a win since 2006. As White put it: “Dude, it’s 2011. He’s got to win.” Really, the fact that he has made it this long is a miracle, or at least a testament to the power of charisma and name recognition. Ortiz is 0-4-1 in his last five fights. The last man he beat? Ken freaking Shamrock. If Ortiz were anybody else, he’d be long gone from the UFC by now. The irony is that, while it’s his Tito-ness that’s helped him stick around, it’s also his Tito-ness that has made him White’s least favorite employee. They could find a way to work together when Ortiz was still a money-maker, but the more he loses, the less people want to see him. Now he finds himself in a must-win against Bader, who is, honestly, a pretty tough style match-up for him at this point. It’s almost as if the UFC is trying to hasten his exit — and maybe it’s finally time for him to go.
Odds of getting cut: even. Let’s face it, Ortiz is probably going to lose this fight. And if he does, he’s certainly getting fired, or so says White. Do the math yourself. Remember to show your work.

Aaron Simpson (8-2, 4-2 UFC)
Who he’s fighting: Brad Tavares
Why he’s in danger: For Simpson, the problem is not so much a parade of losses as it is a couple defeats matched with a few less than inspiring wins. He has a couple of exciting fights on his record — a split decision win over Tom Lawlor, a TKO loss to Chris Leben — but when he has it his way, he typically prefers to put his wrestling skills to work and grind one out. We all know how the UFC feels about that approach, so the question is, if he loses to the undefeated Tavares, will that be reason enough to send him on his merry way?
Odds of getting cut: 4-1. Don’t get me wrong, Simpson needs this win. Another loss and he’ll drop to 1-3 in his last four. But unless he looks absolutely awful, he should be able to pull the old ‘Please baby, give me one more chance’ and keep his job.

Andre Winner (11-5-1, 2-3 UFC)
Who he’s fighting: Anthony Njokuani
Why he’s in danger: One more loss and Winner will have the dreaded three-fight losing streak on his hands. I know, the last one was in a bizarre way kind of, sort of not his fault in many people’s eyes, since he got trapped against the fence by Nik Lentz for three boring rounds. Still, if you can stop a guy from doing that to you, how much of a future do you really have in the UFC? It’s sad, too, because Winner once had so much promise. He was a real blue-chipper on TUF, then lost the finale and has been up and down ever since. If he’s going to make his case as a legitimate UFC lightweight, he’s got to do it now. The question is, can he?
Odds of getting cut: 2-1. This is a winnable fight, but by no means an easy one. At least Winner knows Njokuani won’t try to stall him in a clinch, which is a start.

Anthony Njokuani (13-5-1, 0-1 UFC)
Who he’s fighting: Andre Winner
Why he’s in danger: Njokuani ended his WEC run with a 1-2 stint, then rolled right into the UFC with a decision loss. Fortunately for him, that loss came in a thrilling effort that earned him a Fight of the Night bonus. If you have to lose in the UFC, that’s definitely the way you want to do it. Then again, a loss is still a loss, and you don’t want to make a habit out of it. Njokuani has earned himself some leeway because of his exciting fighting style, but he’s still after that elusive first UFC win. Even if he doesn’t get it against Winner, he’ll probably get one more chance to shine. Still, with a loss here the situation goes from troubling to desperate.
Odds of getting cut: 5-1. His fight with Barboza earned him some goodwill with the UFC brass, so chances are he’s not going anywhere, win or lose. Probably still a good idea to win, though. Just saying.

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Tito OrtizIt’s no big secret: no one needs win at UFC 132 worse than Tito Ortiz. Then again, we said the same thing at UFC 121. He lost a decision there and managed to hold on to his job by the follicles of his bleached blonde hair, so we already know that the normal rules don’t quite apply to him.

But this time, Dana White swears, this time he’s really on the chopping block. Do we believe him? Well, after the tired look on his face when discussing his most recent Tito headache with Ariel Helwani yesterday, it’s kind of hard not to.

Ortiz isn’t the only one who can’t afford to post another L on his record this Saturday night, however. For a look at the fighters who really need to win to stay employed, follow me below.

Tito Ortiz (15-8-1, 14-8-1 UFC)
Who he’s fighting: Ryan Bader
Why he’s in danger: Come on, you know why. As Dana White pointed out on Thursday, Ortiz doesn’t have a win since 2006. As White put it: “Dude, it’s 2011. He’s got to win.” Really, the fact that he has made it this long is a miracle, or at least a testament to the power of charisma and name recognition. Ortiz is 0-4-1 in his last five fights. The last man he beat? Ken freaking Shamrock. If Ortiz were anybody else, he’d be long gone from the UFC by now. The irony is that, while it’s his Tito-ness that’s helped him stick around, it’s also his Tito-ness that has made him White’s least favorite employee. They could find a way to work together when Ortiz was still a money-maker, but the more he loses, the less people want to see him. Now he finds himself in a must-win against Bader, who is, honestly, a pretty tough style match-up for him at this point. It’s almost as if the UFC is trying to hasten his exit — and maybe it’s finally time for him to go.
Odds of getting cut: even. Let’s face it, Ortiz is probably going to lose this fight. And if he does, he’s certainly getting fired, or so says White. Do the math yourself. Remember to show your work.

Aaron Simpson (8-2, 4-2 UFC)
Who he’s fighting: Brad Tavares
Why he’s in danger: For Simpson, the problem is not so much a parade of losses as it is a couple defeats matched with a few less than inspiring wins. He has a couple of exciting fights on his record — a split decision win over Tom Lawlor, a TKO loss to Chris Leben — but when he has it his way, he typically prefers to put his wrestling skills to work and grind one out. We all know how the UFC feels about that approach, so the question is, if he loses to the undefeated Tavares, will that be reason enough to send him on his merry way?
Odds of getting cut: 4-1. Don’t get me wrong, Simpson needs this win. Another loss and he’ll drop to 1-3 in his last four. But unless he looks absolutely awful, he should be able to pull the old ‘Please baby, give me one more chance’ and keep his job.

Andre Winner (11-5-1, 2-3 UFC)
Who he’s fighting: Anthony Njokuani
Why he’s in danger: One more loss and Winner will have the dreaded three-fight losing streak on his hands. I know, the last one was in a bizarre way kind of, sort of not his fault in many people’s eyes, since he got trapped against the fence by Nik Lentz for three boring rounds. Still, if you can stop a guy from doing that to you, how much of a future do you really have in the UFC? It’s sad, too, because Winner once had so much promise. He was a real blue-chipper on TUF, then lost the finale and has been up and down ever since. If he’s going to make his case as a legitimate UFC lightweight, he’s got to do it now. The question is, can he?
Odds of getting cut: 2-1. This is a winnable fight, but by no means an easy one. At least Winner knows Njokuani won’t try to stall him in a clinch, which is a start.

Anthony Njokuani (13-5-1, 0-1 UFC)
Who he’s fighting: Andre Winner
Why he’s in danger: Njokuani ended his WEC run with a 1-2 stint, then rolled right into the UFC with a decision loss. Fortunately for him, that loss came in a thrilling effort that earned him a Fight of the Night bonus. If you have to lose in the UFC, that’s definitely the way you want to do it. Then again, a loss is still a loss, and you don’t want to make a habit out of it. Njokuani has earned himself some leeway because of his exciting fighting style, but he’s still after that elusive first UFC win. Even if he doesn’t get it against Winner, he’ll probably get one more chance to shine. Still, with a loss here the situation goes from troubling to desperate.
Odds of getting cut: 5-1. His fight with Barboza earned him some goodwill with the UFC brass, so chances are he’s not going anywhere, win or lose. Probably still a good idea to win, though. Just saying.

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Dana White Says UFC Likely Headed to Japan Some Time This Year

Filed under: UFCLAS VEGAS — UFC president Dana White responded to rumors that the organization might be headed to Japan soon by telling reporters on Thursday afternoon that “the rumors are true.”

“We’re going to come to Japan, and probably very soon,…

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LAS VEGAS — UFC president Dana White responded to rumors that the organization might be headed to Japan soon by telling reporters on Thursday afternoon that “the rumors are true.”

“We’re going to come to Japan, and probably very soon,” said White, who added that he expected it to happen “this year.”

It’s the most optimistic the UFC frontman has sounded about a Japanese event in a very long time. Previously, whenever the subject came up, White blamed organized crime elements in Japan for keeping the UFC out.

But after Thursday’s UFC 132 pre-fight press conference in Japan, White sounded a confident tone about getting a Japanese event done in 2011, and said the organization is also very close to branching out with a new installment of The Ultimate Fighter, possibly in Brazil.


“We’re already working on it. If that’s not the first place, it’ll probably be the second. We’ve got three or four places dialed in right now for it,” White said, adding that the Philippines was expected to be the next reality show expansion, “but I’ve been saying that for six months, so we’ll see what happens.”

When asked what the hold-up was, White pointed to the organization’s rapid growth and non-stop events schedule, saying that there just aren’t enough hours in the day to get everything done at once. Even when he was taking a mini-vacation in Maine earlier this week with his family, he said, the phone “never gets turned off.”

“We’re so big and reaching out so far, it’s just keeping all this s–t together is crazy. We’re working on so many different things and trying to get all these deals done. If you look at it right now, our television deal is up, we just went through all our pay-per-view deals, we’re expanding into all these different countries, plus we still run the regular business that we always ran. …It’s crazy.”

 

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