The main event at UFC 189 lost one of its stars, but the replacement could provide an even better bout. A rib injury forced Jose Aldo out of his grudge match with “The Notorious” Conor McGregor. Chad Mendes has stepped up, and he represents an interest…
The main event at UFC 189 lost one of its stars, but the replacement could provide an even better bout. A rib injury forced Jose Aldo out of his grudge match with “The Notorious” Conor McGregor. Chad Mendes has stepped up, and he represents an interesting challenge for McGregor.
Joe Rogan of the UFC previews the bout, while McGregor discusses the bout in the video below:
Known for his outstanding stand-up skills, McGregor has a 100 percent takedown defense rating, per FightMetric. He’ll probably need to demonstrate that skill against a world-class wrestler like Mendes.
The short, stocky and powerful Mendes will want to get inside to land a big right hand and/or to put McGregor on his back for the first time in his career. The man who wins this mini game will be victorious.
My prediction is: Mendes.
McGregor has never faced a wrestler of Mendes’ ilk. The latter has the head movement and explosion to get inside The Notorious One’s striking game. Mendes will plant him and finish the fight via ground-and-pound in the second round.
Here’s the viewing information, card and predictions for the rest of the UFC 189 card.
Almost Too Close to Call
Predicting the winner of the rematch between UFC welterweight champion Robbie Lawler and Rory MacDonald is perhaps the most difficult fight to call on the card.
The champion hasn’t fought since winning the title by split decision over Johny Hendricks in December 2014. After fighting five times in 13 months, Lawler took some time off. Will he be rusty?
I expect Lawler will show some Octagon rust, and the hungry, poised and dangerous MacDonald will take advantage. Up to this point in Lawler’s recent career, he’s been able to handle top-notch wrestlers like Hendricks. Lawler has stopped 64 percent of the takedowns attempted against him.
That won’t be good enough against MacDonald. In their first meeting, MacDonald secured four of five takedowns, but he was unable to finish Lawler from top position.
He won’t stop or submit the rugged Lawler this time either, but he will earn the decision victory based on top control and takedowns. MacDonald will be the new 170-pound champion.
Look Out for Almeida
The next big UFC star is going to compete at UFC 189, and no, I’m not talking about McGregor. Brazilian bantamweight Thomas Almeida has all the goods. He’s 18-0 with a 94 percent stoppage percentage in his fights.
On Saturday night, Almeida faces veteran Brad Pickett. The latter won’t be upright long.
Almeida’s grappling and submissions are solid, but they pale in comparison to his diverse and devastating striking prowess. There are few, if any, fighters in the sport who change levels on strikes as quickly and nasty as Almeida.
At Pickett’s expense, Almeida is going to grab a lot of people’s attention on Saturday.
“The Notorious” Conor McGregor has been an awesome self-promoter and he’s a heck of a stand-up fighter, but he’s going to lose to Chad “Money” Mendes on Saturday night in Las Vegas at UFC 189.
McGregor’s 100 percent takedown defense is a facade. He’s o…
“The Notorious” ConorMcGregor has been an awesome self-promoter and he’s a heck of a stand-up fighter, but he’s going to lose to Chad “Money” Mendes on Saturday night in Las Vegas at UFC 189.
McGregor‘s 100 percent takedown defense is a facade. He’s only had to stop five takedown attempts in his UFC career, and none of those have been attempted by a wrestler on par with Mendes.
Originally, McGregor was supposed to be facing UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo, but the latter had to bow out because of a rib injury. Mendes stepped up to take his place and fight McGregor for an interim title.
Some might be pointing to Mendes‘ short camp as a reason to pick McGregor. Instead, McGregor will be burned by facing an entirely different style of fighter than the one he’d prepared to face for weeks. Aldo is a skilled Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist, but he prefers to do his damage on the feet.
That style more plays into McGregor‘s hands as he is a tall and powerful striker who has hurt every 145-pound fighter he’s laid a glove on. Mendes has big-time punching power, but he’s also the best wrestler in the weight class. He has a 54 percent takedown accuracy rate. That’s pretty high considering the caliber of fighters Mendes has faced in the UFC.
McGregor won’t be able to keep Mendes from taking him down. Once Money gets him down, he’ll pound him out en route to a TKO victory and a huge return on investment for DraftKings players who select him for $9,600.
Here’s a look at my entire lineup for UFC 189:
Thomas Almeida ($11,200) vs. Brad Pickett
I’ve said this for the last six months: The next major superstar in the UFC is Thomas Almeida. His striking is already on another level, and it simply gets better each time you watch him. Almeida is averaging 100.3 fantasy points per bout in the UFC. McGregor is the only fighter on the card with a higher average.
The undefeated 23-year-old is going to mow down the over-the-hill and undersized Brad Pickett on Saturday.
If this fight gets out of the first round, it’ll be a miracle.
Almeida is faster, 13 years younger and a better technical striker than Pickett. Almeida is also a big 135-pounder who will likely look like a giant in the Octagon next to Pickett on fight night. While his price tag is high, Almeida will be worth every virtual penny.
Pickett will certainly stand in the pocket and exchange with anybody and Almeida is probably no different, but the Brazilian is much more technical and dangerous on his feet. Almeida could become a title contender one day, so his performance should be something special and this might be a passing of the torch as Pickett anoints the Brazilian prospect as the next big thing at 135 pounds after their fight is finished at UFC 189.
Tim Means ($8,900) vs. Matt Brown
The best budget pick on the card is Tim “Dirty Bird” Means at $8,900. He’s facing the seemingly ineradicable Matt Brown, but this one is going to be interesting. Means has been on a tear as of late, but it’s true, none of those wins have come over fighters of Brown’s caliber.
However, if you’ve watched Means in these bouts, you’ll see the quality of his performances supersede the level of competition. He’s been busy and effective with his striking. He’s averaged 110 significant strike attempts per fight in his last four bouts, and he’s landed 199 of them.
In his career, he’s defended 65 percent of the strikes thrown at him. Brown can be wild and out of control at times. This can be a major issue against a more technical and cerebral opponent.
Means is the more technically sound fighter, and I think he sets up a late submission win over Brown with counter striking through the first two rounds.
Gunnar Nelson ($9,200) vs. Brandon Thatch
This bout is an excellent clash between contrasting styles. Gunnar Nelson gets the edge because Brandon Thatch was unimpressive with his takedown defense and poise on the ground against Benson Henderson in his last fight.
Facing an elite grappler like Nelson, those deficiencies will be exploited. Nelson’s sneaky striking will help to set up the takedown, and he’ll ultimately outwork Thatch on the ground and earn the submission victory.
Cody Garbrandt (11,000) vs. Henry Briones
If you had to rank the fighters most likely to get knocked out in the first round on Saturday, Henry Briones would have to be close to the top of the list.
Not only is Garbrandt an explosive and ferocious young striker, Briones‘ defense looked suspect in his UFC debut. He absorbed 5.2 strikes per minute and only stopped 52 percent of the strikes thrown against him.
When facing a fighter like Garbrandt, that type of defense will get Briones folded up like a lawn chair. Garbrandt is worth the 11K of DK salary.
“The Notorious” Conor McGregor has been an awesome self-promoter and he’s a heck of a stand-up fighter, but he’s going to lose to Chad “Money” Mendes on Saturday night in Las Vegas at UFC 189.
McGregor’s 100 percent takedown defense is a facade. He’s o…
“The Notorious” ConorMcGregor has been an awesome self-promoter and he’s a heck of a stand-up fighter, but he’s going to lose to Chad “Money” Mendes on Saturday night in Las Vegas at UFC 189.
McGregor‘s 100 percent takedown defense is a facade. He’s only had to stop five takedown attempts in his UFC career, and none of those have been attempted by a wrestler on par with Mendes.
Originally, McGregor was supposed to be facing UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo, but the latter had to bow out because of a rib injury. Mendes stepped up to take his place and fight McGregor for an interim title.
Some might be pointing to Mendes‘ short camp as a reason to pick McGregor. Instead, McGregor will be burned by facing an entirely different style of fighter than the one he’d prepared to face for weeks. Aldo is a skilled Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist, but he prefers to do his damage on the feet.
That style more plays into McGregor‘s hands as he is a tall and powerful striker who has hurt every 145-pound fighter he’s laid a glove on. Mendes has big-time punching power, but he’s also the best wrestler in the weight class. He has a 54 percent takedown accuracy rate. That’s pretty high considering the caliber of fighters Mendes has faced in the UFC.
McGregor won’t be able to keep Mendes from taking him down. Once Money gets him down, he’ll pound him out en route to a TKO victory and a huge return on investment for DraftKings players who select him for $9,600.
Here’s a look at my entire lineup for UFC 189:
Thomas Almeida ($11,200) vs. Brad Pickett
I’ve said this for the last six months: The next major superstar in the UFC is Thomas Almeida. His striking is already on another level, and it simply gets better each time you watch him. Almeida is averaging 100.3 fantasy points per bout in the UFC. McGregor is the only fighter on the card with a higher average.
The undefeated 23-year-old is going to mow down the over-the-hill and undersized Brad Pickett on Saturday.
If this fight gets out of the first round, it’ll be a miracle.
Almeida is faster, 13 years younger and a better technical striker than Pickett. Almeida is also a big 135-pounder who will likely look like a giant in the Octagon next to Pickett on fight night. While his price tag is high, Almeida will be worth every virtual penny.
Pickett will certainly stand in the pocket and exchange with anybody and Almeida is probably no different, but the Brazilian is much more technical and dangerous on his feet. Almeida could become a title contender one day, so his performance should be something special and this might be a passing of the torch as Pickett anoints the Brazilian prospect as the next big thing at 135 pounds after their fight is finished at UFC 189.
Tim Means ($8,900) vs. Matt Brown
The best budget pick on the card is Tim “Dirty Bird” Means at $8,900. He’s facing the seemingly ineradicable Matt Brown, but this one is going to be interesting. Means has been on a tear as of late, but it’s true, none of those wins have come over fighters of Brown’s caliber.
However, if you’ve watched Means in these bouts, you’ll see the quality of his performances supersede the level of competition. He’s been busy and effective with his striking. He’s averaged 110 significant strike attempts per fight in his last four bouts, and he’s landed 199 of them.
In his career, he’s defended 65 percent of the strikes thrown at him. Brown can be wild and out of control at times. This can be a major issue against a more technical and cerebral opponent.
Means is the more technically sound fighter, and I think he sets up a late submission win over Brown with counter striking through the first two rounds.
Gunnar Nelson ($9,200) vs. Brandon Thatch
This bout is an excellent clash between contrasting styles. Gunnar Nelson gets the edge because Brandon Thatch was unimpressive with his takedown defense and poise on the ground against Benson Henderson in his last fight.
Facing an elite grappler like Nelson, those deficiencies will be exploited. Nelson’s sneaky striking will help to set up the takedown, and he’ll ultimately outwork Thatch on the ground and earn the submission victory.
Cody Garbrandt (11,000) vs. Henry Briones
If you had to rank the fighters most likely to get knocked out in the first round on Saturday, Henry Briones would have to be close to the top of the list.
Not only is Garbrandt an explosive and ferocious young striker, Briones‘ defense looked suspect in his UFC debut. He absorbed 5.2 strikes per minute and only stopped 52 percent of the strikes thrown against him.
When facing a fighter like Garbrandt, that type of defense will get Briones folded up like a lawn chair. Garbrandt is worth the 11K of DK salary.
The odds are extremely tight for the UFC 189 main event Saturday. Per Odds Shark, Conor McGregor is the slight favorite to take down Jose Aldo’s replacement, Chad Mendes. McGregor’s odds are set at 19-20, and Mendes is just behind him at 87-100. Aldo w…
The odds are extremely tight for the UFC 189 main event Saturday. Per Odds Shark, ConorMcGregor is the slight favorite to take down Jose Aldo’s replacement, Chad Mendes. McGregor‘s odds are set at 19-20, and Mendes is just behind him at 87-100. Aldo was forced to back out of the much-anticipated battle with McGregor because of a rib injury.
Stylistically, Mendes presents a much different challenge for McGregor than Aldo. While Mendes does have explosive power, he’s also a world-class wrestler. That skill set could be the undoing of McGregor. The Irishman is purely a stand-up fighter who has yet to prove he’s capable of being effective on the ground.
Thus far, McGregor‘s takedown defense percentage has been impregnable. Per FightMetric, he’s stopped 100 percent of the takedowns attempted against him. To put that number in the proper perspective, McGregor‘s opponents have only attempted five takedowns against him in the UFC. He’s yet to face a truly elite wrestler. That’ll change on Saturday night when he locks horns with Mendes.
In his UFC career, Mendes has a 54 percent takedown accuracy rating. That’s pretty high considering the world-class competition he has faced in the UFC. This is clearly the key to the fight. With a decided height (5’9″) and reach advantage (74″), McGregor figures to dominate the stand-up exchanges if he can keep Mendes (5’6″, 66″) at a distance.
If Mendes can get on the inside, the game will change.
Brett Okamoto of ESPN.com gave Mendes a good chance to win based on his power and wrestling prowess but believes the short camp and McGregor‘s pressure will deliver the victory for the Irishman. Okamoto wrote:
I think Mendes will earn multiple takedowns in the opening frame and if he doesn’t knock McGregor out (which I do think is possible), he’ll at least get out to an early lead on the scorecards. But as the fight progresses, McGregor‘s pressure coupled with that extremely short fight camp will start to take its toll on Mendes. And once that happens, McGregor has the tools to take full advantage.
It’s easy to see how Mendes could get out to a fast start with his wrestling. If this happens, he won’t allow McGregor to escape his predicament. We never know how a natural predator will respond when he’s wounded. If McGregor is put on his back and hurt, Mendes will finish the job.
Alex Ballentine of Bleacher Report also believes there’s a solid chance Mendes does some damage to McGregor but doesn’t see him breaking the Notorious’ winning streak. Ballentine said:
Unlike many flashy prospects before him, McGregor‘s game isn’t just predicated on pure power or speed. He’s displayed a fight IQ that is as high as any young fighter. His ability to adjust to opponents and lure them into his type of fight has been apparent in his run with the UFC.
We may see him in more danger than he’s ever been in, but it’s hard to pick against his supreme confidence and style to make UFC 189 his official announcement to the MMA world as a bona fide star.
No one seems to want to pull the trigger on a Mendes upset prediction. Allow me to be the guy who calls it. Mendes‘ physical strength, wrestling prowess, athleticism and will are the biggest factors in this matchup. McGregor has done an excellent job of self-promoting, and he is a legit talent.
However, this is a bad matchup for him. McGregor‘s takedown defense isn’t as good as it appears, and Mendes will expose that. Was the fight camp short? Yes, it was, but in today’s UFC, where cancellations are commonplace, top contenders stay ready to step in and take advantage of opportunities.
As you can see from the video interview below from the UFC, Mendes has one of the best training groups in the sport. He’ll be prepared.
Mendes is a long-suffering contender who has only lost to Aldo in his career. The gap between him and every other featherweight in the world—besides maybe Frankie Edgar—is huge. Mendes will not only defeat McGregor; he’ll get it done in the first round via TKO.
Yoel “The Soldier of God” Romero smashed his way to victory in Hollywood, Florida on Saturday night at the expense of Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida. The latter was able to elude the power of Romero for the first round, but in the second, the soldier of Go…
Yoel “The Soldier of God” Romero smashed his way to victory in Hollywood, Florida on Saturday night at the expense of Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida. The latter was able to elude the power of Romero for the first round, but in the second, the soldier of God secured the takedown and launched an assault of elbows that knocked Machida out cold.
Todd Grisham of ESPN validated Romero’s performance:
Machida showed great respect for Romero’s power early on. It was clear he didn’t want to get into a firefight with the powerful Cuban. Machida also did his best to avoid the takedown attempts from the former Olympic freestyle wrestler.
Because of the physical disadvantages, Machida was forced to try and employ a game plan that had him looking to land a hard counter, or hoping that Romero tired in the championship rounds.
Neither scenario played out. The 37-year-old Brazilian legend has now lost two fights in a row and both have come by brutal stoppage. Many fans of Machida, such as MMA History Today see the Dragon’s fall as a sad occurrence:
To be clear, this was not an example of a young fighter taking advantage of an old one. Romero is actually older than Machida at 38. However, because of his late arrival to the sport, Romero clearly has a lot more left in the tank than Machida.
Hopefully the Dragon will acknowledge that his career has likely come to an end and walk away without taking any more beatings. Romero on the other hand is ready for the next challenge. Perhaps a meeting with Jacare Souza is next.
Here’s a look at all of the results from Saturday’s card.
Full Results
Top Prelim Bout
Sims Wins Wild One
Tony Sims nor Steve Montgomery will likely ever become contenders in the welterweight division, but they put on a thrilling one-round scrap during the prelims. Bleacher Report’s Jeremy Botter wasn’t excited about this one before it got started:
After being dazed by a knee from Montgomery, Sims quickly rebounded with a destructive right hand that forced his opponent to face plant.
When this one was over, Botter had clearly changed his tune.
There’s nothing like some fisticuffs at the old watering hole.
Main Card
Dias Wins a Really Bad Fight
Hacran Dias won a close split decision over Levan Makashvili, but the real losers was any fan forced to sit through this bout. Fox Sports UFC and The MMA Report’s Jason Floyd tells us we shouldn’t have expected anything different.
The fight stats show Dias proved he was the superior grappler with three takedowns. Makashvili appeared to be the better striker, but he couldn’t keep the fight standing long enough to get a rhythm or to keep us entertained.
This one turned out to be the watering hole scrap.
You Are Not the Bosse of Me
It sounded like a bat hitting a stack of wet blankets, but the sound that ended the Thiago Santos vs. Steve Bosse was a left high kick that sent the latter to the mat like a deck of cards.
Santos’ kick was one of the most devastating and violent you’ll ever see in the history of the sport. If you didn’t see it, trust me, I’m not a prisoner of the moment. This kick was rated-R. Take a look at the kick in this tweet from Darth Vader:
Ben Fowlkes of USA Today had a graphic but accurate analogy:
Santos has strung together three consecutive fights by first-round stoppage. This KO will undoubtedly get Santos some notoriety in the MMA community.
Gordon Forced to Acquiesce
The Ultimate Fighter Season 19 winner Eddie “Truck” Gordon has now lost three straight fights. On Saturday night, Gordon was beaten up in every facet by TUF Brazil winner, Antonio Carlos Junior.
ACJ finished the bout with a rear-naked choke in the final moments of the third and final round. Even before the finish, ACJ racked up a 40-12 advantage in significant strikes and also secured four takedowns to none against Gordon.
It was especially disappointing performance by Gordon who came to the fight in great shape. Sean Sheehan of Severe MMA delivers the cold, hard truths about Gordon’s UFC career thus far:
ACJ looked massive in the Octagon and he simply overpowered Gordon en route to the win.
New Life for Larkin
Lorenz Larkin has found a new home at 170 pounds. It’s hard to remember a fighter looking as good after dropping weight as Larkin has since becoming a welterweight. He scored his second consecutive impressive stoppage win on Saturday against Santiago Ponzinibbio.
With a huge advantage in significant strikes, Larkin was building a solid lead on the judges’ scorecards. ultimately, he wouldn’t need the points. In the second round, Larkin landed a hard combination that sent Ponzinibbio to the mat.
Larkin pounced and landed enough punches to encourage referee Herb Dean to call an end to the fight. UFC Canada applauded Larkin’s performance:
Larkin might have powered his way into the top 15 with the win.
Fight stat images per Jason Floyd of The MMA Report and Sportz Visionz.
The takedown continues to bedevil Alexander Volkov.
Veteran heavyweight Cheick Kongo was the latest to snatch the legs from under the 6’6″ former champion. Grappling was the key for Kongo in his dominant win on Friday night at Bellator 139 in Kan…
The takedown continues to bedevil Alexander Volkov.
Veteran heavyweight Cheick Kongo was the latest to snatch the legs from under the 6’6″ former champion. Grappling was the key for Kongo in his dominant win on Friday night at Bellator 139 in Kansas Star Arena in Mulvane, Kansas. Bleacher Report MMA has the official scorecards:
From the opening round to the final bell, the 40-year-old Kongo worked diligently to secure takedowns. Once he got it in each round, he pounded Volkov like a mallet on raw meat. Hard elbows in the first round opened a nasty cut on the hairline of the 26-year-old Russian. Here’s a look at the shot that busted Volkov open:
The final two rounds were carbon copies of the first.
Volkov tried to prevent the takedown with submission attempts, but his efforts were to no avail. Once on the ground, Volkov seemed to have no clue how to rise to his feet. Kongo stayed relentless and was content to beat Volkov up for 15 minutes.
After his winning performance, Kongo moves one step closer to another shot at reigning heavyweight champion VitalyMinakov. Kongo lost to Minakov at Bellator 115, but he looks focused on earning another title opportunity.
Guys like Bobby Lashley might be in better position to challenge Minakov first, but Kongo did well for himself against a former champion.
If Volkov‘s ground game hasn’t progressed to this point in his career, you have to wonder if he’ll ever develop that part of his game. Tony Johnson used ground-and-pound to win a split decision over Volkov in his last fight, and there was no improvement shown against Kongo.
Here’s a look at all of the results from Friday’s card and a closer look at the main event bouts:
Curran Outworks Sanchez
If Emmanuel Sanchez’s face could talk, it might have asked referee John McCarthy to stop his fight with Pat Curran on Friday night. Curran’s laser-like punches tattooed Sanchez through the first two rounds. Here’s a look at the highlights of the bout via Whip Clip:
Oddly enough, despite the solid boxing Curran exhibited, the most visual damage done to Sanchez came from a second-round head-butt that opened a nasty gash over the latter’s left eye. With his brain and heart overruling his worn face, Sanchez fought on.
He’ll get some credit for his toughness, but the quality didn’t win him any rounds. Curran scored a sweep on the judges’ scorecards and is seemingly on a mission to try to regain the Bellator featherweight title. Sanchez is no Daniel Straus or PitbullFreire, but Curran was in fine form nonetheless.
After the fight, he discussed his development and title chances:
Down Goes Schilling
It’s a bird. It’s a plane. Nope, it’s HisakiKato flying through the air with one of the sickest superman punches you’ll ever see. Joe “Stitch ‘Em Up” Schilling was the unfortunate recipient of the maneuver. Here’s a look at what has to be a strong favorite for Knockout of the Year in MMA:
Usually, Schilling is the man delivering highlight-reel KOs like the one he scored against Melvin Manhoef. Bellator fighter Ryan Couture acknowledged Friday night wasn’t Schilling’s moment to shine but pointed out Stitch ‘Em Up’s ability to entertain:
The 32-year-old from Japan has had limited MMA experience. This was his first fight with Bellator, but he looked well-schooled against Schilling. After dominating the first round with a takedown and consistent ground-and-pound, Kato put Schilling to sleep with the big left hand.
Without question, there will be a good deal of buzz around Kato‘s next appearance in the Bellator cage.
Cool Entrance, Unfortunate Exit
David “Caveman” Rickels knows how to make an entrance; unfortunately, he needs some work on his finishing skills—from a legality standpoint at least.
The Kansas native set his hometown crowd ablaze with this entrance in his trademark big cat attire.
Rickels has to be kicking himself after he kneed John Alessio when the latter was clearly a downed opponent in the first round. Rickels had Alessio reeling after a series of hard shots put the Canadian in dire straits.
Caveman lost his composure for a moment and landed a left knee to Alessio‘s temple. Here’s a look at the sequence:
The strike was without question an illegal one, but there are two aspects of this fight that fans might question. First, the fight should have been stopped before Alessio went to the mat. Rickels had thrown and landed enough unanswered shots to warrant the stoppage.
Had referee Rob Hinds stepped in a few seconds earlier, the illegal strike wouldn’t have been thrown.
Secondly, you hate to question a fighter’s integrity, but Alessio might have taken the easy way out in this one. He had several minutes to decide if he could continue. He predictably decided to say he couldn’t keep fighting a fight he was clearly losing.
Many people might have done the same thing, but it’s hard not to turn your lips up at the conclusion. When the fight was over, Rickels apologized for his error to his beloved hometown fans:
The Caveman will be back in all his glory, but he squandered an opportunity to shine at home.
Summary
Despite the letdown from the Rickels fight and the one-sided nature of Kongo-Volkov, Bellator 139 had some bright spots. The most memorable moment will undoubtedly be the KO win by Kato. If you had to tab a star of the evening, it would be him.
Kongo showed well, but his fight with Volkov left a bit to be desired from a competitive standpoint. Perhaps a scrap between he and Lashley might be in order to determine the next man to challenge Minakov. That’s assuming the champion decides to defend his title sometime in the next year.