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UFC Fight Night 29: Maia vs. Shields Fight Card, TV Info, Predictions and More

Appropriately, grappling will take center stage in the main event of UFC Fight Night 29 in Barueri, Brazil on Wednesday. The country’s grappling techniques and prowess have shaped the sport of MMA as much as any other trait or discipline.
One of …

One of Brazil’s finest grapplers, Demian Maia (18-4) will put his skills on display against another elite mat warrior in Jake Shields (28-6-1). Between them, Maia and Shields have a combined 19 wins by submission in their careers.

Does that mean we’re destined to see someone tap out? Will we see two experts in submissions elect to settle things with their fists, or will they battle for positioning for five rounds while the fight is decided on the scorecards.

I have my theories, but here’s how you can watch the main event and entire card for yourself.

Prepare to Fall Asleep

I respect Maia and Shields as good fighters and excellent submissions artists, but sometimes two good fighters don’t produce an exciting fight. This is probably going to be one of those bouts. Both men are very calculated and excellent in executing their game plans.

The problem is, both generally have the same approach. The vast majority of the wins they have captured in their careers have come by submission, and neither man has ever been submitted in their MMA careers.

This is going to be a chess match where neither man blinks enough to give his opponent an edge. For a grappling connoisseur, this will be heavenly. However, for fans that long to see a mix of striking and grappling, you’re likely to feel a little sleepy by the beginning of the third round.

I’ll take Shields as the winner because he’s a little stronger physically, and when he’s not actively pursuing the submission, he’s usually better at maintaining top position. Posture will go a long way in this fight as neither man is likely to take a ton of punishment from strikes.

The winner is likely to put himself in good position to challenge for the welterweight title in the future. That fight should be more entertaining than this one will be. Check out this simulation of the fight from the video game UFC Undisputed 3.

Prepare to Wake Up

It is too bad the Maia-Shields fight couldn’t come after the Erick Silva-Dong Hyun Kim bout. The latter should feature better action. Silva is definitely a solid submission artist having finished 60 percent of his opponents that way, but his opponent has good ground defense and likes to thump. Per UFC.com, he has defended 80.65 percent of the takedowns attempted against him.

The man they call the “Stun Gun” will at least make sure this fight is entertaining. Silva is my pick to win by submission, but he’ll have to avoid the South Korean’s long reach to get inside.

Ultimately, his explosion into his takedown attempts will wear Kim down and lead to victory.

Prepare to See Punches in Bunches

Neither Thiago Silva nor Matt Hamill would have a prayer in the Octagon against Jon “Bones” Jones, but their matchup has explosive possibilities. Hamill actually owns the only win over Jones, but it came when Bones was disqualified for pummeling him with a downward elbow.

Aside from that “win,” Hamill stopped Mark Munoz with a vicious head kick in 2009 and has won decisions over Keith Jardine, Tito Ortiz and Roger Hollett.

He’s a tough, strong veteran who has been around the sport since 2005. He’s far from a pushover.

Silva has knocked out 87 percent of the fighters he’s faced, including a first-round stoppage of Rafael Cavalcante on UFC on Fuel TV 10 in June. He’s faced some of the best fighters in the world in his weight class and owns a TKO win over Jardine from 2009.

The man can flat-out punch, and he’ll be hyped to perform well in front of his home country. This could be a case of the first man to land a flush strike wins. Silva has slightly longer arms, and he’s a little smoother than Hamill.

This gives him the edge in what could be the Fight of the Night and/or KO of the Night.

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UFC 165: Matchups That Would Make Sense After Saturday’s Card

Glover Teixeira is next in line for a shot at the light heavyweight title, but if things happen as they should, he should be made to wait at least one more fight for his opportunity. Jon Jones and Alexander Gustafsson’s epic battle for Jones’ UFC light…

Gustafsson pushed the champion in a way that no one outside of his camp expected. Because we’re talking about the first serious challenge to the pound-for-pound champion, the UFC owes it to the fans to put both men back in the Octagon to maximize on what could be a great rivalry.

If Jones or Gustafsson are allowed to fight another opponent, there is no telling what could happen to either man. If Jones or Gustafsson take any damage that changes them as a fighter, it could hurt the best product the division has.

Of all the potential fights that could come from the action at UFC 165, a Jones-Gustafsson rematch makes the most sense. What other bouts should we see in light of the results from Saturday?

Renan Barao vs. Dominick Cruz

It is time to remove the interim tag from Barao‘s UFC bantamweight title one way or another. His impressive TKO win over Eddie Wineland on Saturday ran his record to 31-1. He hasn’t lost a fight in eight years. Current UFC bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz has been on the shelf for two years after suffering a torn ACL.

Derrick Rose has nothing on this guy.

Barao should either be named the official champion at 135 pounds, or Cruz should face him to settle things. Per Mike Whitman of Sherdog, plans to have the two stars meet are in the works. Cruz is apparently targeting “early 2014” for his long-awaited return.

Barao will be waiting for him.

Francis Carmont vs. Ronaldo Souza

Prior to his manhandling of Costa Philippou on Saturday, Carmont wasn’t listed as a top-10 middleweight. Because of the complete and utter domination he displayed over the man who was ranked seventh, it seems fair to say Carmont deserves a spot in the top 10.

Souza is one of the hottest names in the UFC. He’s looked increasingly impressive in his two fights in the promotion. Matching these two streaking 185-pounders against one another could very well determine the next serious challenger for the middleweight crown.

Anderson Silva will attempt to regain his title from Chris Weidman at UFC 168 in December. If Carmont-Souza is made, the winner would be a stiff challenge for the man holding the title after Silva-Weidman 2.

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UFC 165 Results: Most Impressive Performances from Air Canada Centre

Even in defeat, Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafsson’s star shined bright. The Mauler couldn’t quite dethrone Jon “Bones” Jones at UFC 165 on Saturday night, but he did enough to put the decision in serious doubt all the way up to …

Bones kept his title with a unanimous-decision win, but it was the furthest thing from easy. His face looked like it had been put through a meat grinder, and for the first time, it looked as if he was in serious peril.

Gustafsson’s length and quickness was a legitimate problem for the light heavyweight champion. Per Fight Metric, he landed 66 strikes to Jones’ head on Saturday night. That is literally three times the amount Chael Sonnen and Vitor Belfort landed combined in Jones’ last two fights. Gustafsson also stuffed 10 of Jones’ 11 takedown attempts.

Considering the opponent, this was one of the best performances you’ll ever see in a losing effort. Gustafsson’s night stands out, but he isn’t the only fighter who put on a show.

Jon Jones

It takes two to tango, and as great as Gustafsson looked, he didn’t win the fight; Bones did. The champion proved he’s not just a bully on the block who is going to fold the first time someone stands up to him. He is a legitimate tough guy with an excellent chin and massive heart.

With his title hanging in the balance in the final two rounds, Bones responded with a huge fourth and fifth frame. Gustafsson got a little tired, and Bones began to make adjustments.

The spinning elbow proved to be the most important weapon in Jones’ arsenal. He nearly finished Gustafsson after landing it flush in the fourth round, but The Mauler deserves credit for having an excellent chin.

Despite being cut up and swollen, Jones never panicked. He kept his composure, which is the reason he’s still champ. Some may call Jones’ win controversial, but the numbers don’t support that theory. Per Fight Metric, Jones landed more significant strikes (134 to 110) and at a higher rate (62 percent to 38). Each man had one takedown in the fight, and Jones’ defense against Gustafsson’s grappling efforts were nearly as impressive as the challenger’s. The champion stuffed seven of eight attempts to take him down.

It is easy to get caught up in being surprised that Jones was actually pushed in a fight. The element of surprise can often skew our decisions and force us to give the fighter with the most surprising performance more credit. The numbers remove that potential bias and support the bottom-line decision that Jones deserved to win the fight.

Renan Barao

Dominick Cruz may want to stay inactive. Barao, the interim bantamweight champion, looked like a real title holder to me on Saturday night.

Defeating a tough and motivated Eddie Wineland was an impressive feat. Let’s not forget that Barao owns a win over Urijah Faber as well. This guy is a legitimate star who isn’t getting the credit he deserves.

Barao showed the versatility in his game by stopping Wineland with a spinning back kick. The stoppage seemed a little quick at first, but there is little doubt that Barao would have pounded Wineland out. He had already begun throwing hammer fists to his down opponent.

Cruz is still the official champion in the division, but injuries have kept him inactive for two years. After Barao’s performance on Saturday night, UFC president Dana White needs to make the decision to remove the interim tag from Barao’s title. There isn’t a better active fighter in the world at 135 pounds.

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Jon Jones Would Be Smart to Force Alexander Gustafsson to Grapple

UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones has proven he can beat just about any opponent in the world. Moreover, he’s made a habit of beating many of them at their own game. He out-grappled master wrestler Chael Sonnen in his last fight and submitted Br…

Because his opponent at UFC 165 on Saturday night, Alexander Gustafsson, isn’t known for his wrestling prowess, it would be smart for Jones to subdue him with a pointed ground attack. I’m not doubting Jones’ ability to beat Gustafsson in a stand-up battle, but he could make the fight a lot easier for himself by taking the big Swede to the mat.

Gustafsson‘s only loss came at the hands of world-class wrestler Phil Davis. The former NCAA champion wrestler manhandled Gustafsson on the mat and submitted him with an Anaconda choke.

Jones is a brilliant in-ring performer, so he undoubtedly knows this is a perceived weakness for Gustafsson. We all know Jones marches to the beat of his own drum; because most would expect him to attack Gustafsson‘s underdeveloped wrestling, he’s probably been training and concentrating on striking for the last eight weeks.

Part of what makes him great is his unpredictability and versatile attack. In this fight, he’d be better off taking the safe win. Jones is building a legacy that will ultimately be compared to the best runs of excellence the sport has ever seen.

His title is on the line and there is no reason to take unnecessary risks. Gustafsson is an explosive striker who presents Jones with a different challenge because of his height.

He stands 6’5″, so he is the only fighter Jones has faced in the UFC who is taller than the light heavyweight champion. This could create an advantage for Gustafsson in the stand-up game, but that length will most likely work against him on the mat. His long limbs only give Jones more real estate to work with for submissions.

When you add in the fact that Jones is simply more skilled on the ground, the champion could make this an easy fight if he takes his man down.

Normally, any MMA fan would applaud a champion choosing to stand and throw even when it wasn’t in his best interest. After watching Anderson Silva fall at the hands of Chris Weidman, fans should understand if Jones comes in looking to minimize risks.

With so much on the line, the predictable and safer approach is the best bet.

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UFC 165: Jones vs. Gustafsson Fight Card, TV Info, Predictions and More

There comes a time when even the greatest champions fall off their perch. On Saturday, Sept. 21 at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Alexander Gustafsson will attempt to become the man that sends UFC light heavyweight champion, Jon “Bones” …

Jones knows he’s not invincible. He said as much while he was mic’d for sound for Fox Sports’ UFC Full Blast during Anderson Silva’s loss to Chris Weidman at UFC 162.

Watch Jones’ reaction to his friend and former champion Silva’s loss.

This event could serve as a reminder of how quickly it can all be taken away. Observing Jones’ behavior and natural way, this is a concept he likely already knew; but seeing it happen to Silva could make it all the more real to him.

With a heightened sense of awareness, Jones takes on the big and powerful Gustafsson in the first fight where Bones won’t be the bigger man physically. Gustafsson is a huge light heavyweight and potentially a sizable challenge for the champion.

Here’s how you can watch this fight and the rest of the card at UFC 165. Spotlighted fights are highlighted in the table.

Can Bam Bam Stop the Eagle’s Flight?

Khabib Nurmagomedov is 20-0 and has been proving himself in stand-up as well as with his wrestling ability. Patrick “Bam Bam” Healy had been on an impressive win streak before a positive marijuana test caused his win over Jim Miller to be overturned, per Steve Marrocco of MMA Junkie.

One of these two lightweights will figure in the title picture in the near future, so this is a big bout for both men.

Nurmagomedov would obviously like to remain undefeated and continue to ascend the lightweight ranks. Healy wants to earn a title shot and shake the bad press from his tainted drug test.

He has a two-inch height and reach advantage, so Nurmagomedov will find more success grappling. Healy has only stopped 53 percent of the takedowns attempted against him, and he hasn’t always faced grapplers as skilled as Nurmagomedov. The Eagle will control the fight on the ground and win by decision.

Looking for Legitimacy

Renan Barao has proven himself against some of the best fighters in the world at bantamweight. He’s the interim titleholder, but he still needs to best the official champion, Dominick Cruz, to call himself the man at 135 pounds. Before he can earn a shot at Cruz, he has to take on the rough and skilled Eddie Wineland. The latter won an epic clash with Brad Pickett at UFC 155. If this fight is half as good as that one, we’ll all be entertained.

Wineland is gritty, and he possesses the chin and heart to battle anyone, but Barao is too well-rounded and sharp defensively. He’s a solid striker, landing 35 percent of his attacks, but his grappling game is top-notch. He has been successful taking his opponent down 58 percent of the time, and his takedown defense is 95 percent.

Look for Barao’s technical acumen to be the difference in the fight.

Will Size Matter in the Main Event?

Gustafsson at 6’5” is an inch taller than Jones. Some may believe that Gustafsson’s size could make this bout difficult for Jones. Both Chael Sonnen and Daniel Cormier weighed in on the matchup. Sonnen is non-committal, which is strange for him, but Cormier believes Jones will win, per Fight Magazine.

While size won’t be on Jones’ side in this bout, athleticism and a decided edge in grappling will. Part of what makes Jones’ length so formidable is his ability to move and change angles. Though he won’t be longer than Gustafsson, he’s still quicker and more agile. He has a more diverse set of attacks in the stand-up game and good defensive reflexes.

On the mat he should have his way with Gustafsson. In the 26-year-old’s only loss, Phil Davis took him to the ground and submitted him. Sonnen mentions in the video, Gustafsson is reportedly much improved in this aspect, but it is unlikely he is on par with Jones who has already proven his mettle against top competition in this area.

After seeing Silva fall from overconfidence against Weidman, expect Jones to be even more business-like than he usually is. He’ll attack his opponent’s weakness on the ground and win by submission.

Stats and height references per Fightmetric.com

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Jon Jones Will Prove He Can Win Without Size Advantage

Size matters, but it isn’t everything. That’s especially the case when you’re UFC light heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones.
At 6’4″, Bones usually towers over his opponents. He’s the rare big man who knows how to fight tall and maintain his length …

Size matters, but it isn’t everything. That’s especially the case when you’re UFC light heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones.

At 6’4″, Bones usually towers over his opponents. He’s the rare big man who knows how to fight tall and maintain his length advantage.

However, when he faces Alexander Gustafsson Saturday, Sept. 21, at UFC 165 in Toronto, Bones will not be the bigger man—at least not physically. Gustafsson stands 6’5″ and presents Jones with a challenge he’s never had to face in the Octagon.

How will Bones perform when he doesn’t hold a size advantage? Like a champion.

Jones isn’t Tim Sylvia or Stefan Struve. Those are big men whose sizes were their most impressive traits. Ample height and length are just two of the many parts that make Bones the best fighter in the world. Here’s why he’ll beat Gustafsson.

Athleticism

Being big is great, but being an above-average athlete makes the size all the more dangerous. Gustafsson isn’t a complete stiff, but he doesn’t possess the dexterity, quickness, agility or flexibility that Jones does.

Gustafsson has struggled to show the ability to bend his long frame when needed. That is what led to his loss to Phil Davis via submission in 2010. Jones has no problem getting low, as he did against Chael Sonnen, or staying high, as he did with Rashad Evans.

Overall, Jones is just a more fluid mover in the Octagon, and his ability to change levels will be key.

Wrestling

Gustafsson‘s weakest area is his wrestling. Jones doesn’t have many weaknesses at all, and wrestling surely isn’t one of them. He proved against a master grappler like Sonnen that he could hold his own on the ground. With Gustafsson being less than comfortable in this area, he will be in purgatory if Jones takes the fight to the mat.

Gustafsson‘s size and length will work against him, and it will leave him open to another submission loss.

Diverse Striking

Jones, Anthony Pettis and Anderson Silva are perhaps the most dynamic strikers in the sport. Gustafsson has power in his hands and feet, but Jones can attack from more angles and in a variety of ways.

His elbows, knees and feet are equally as dangerous. If Gustafsson rushes in, he could run into a bomb that ends his night in an instant.

Prediction

Jones’ major challenge may come soon enough, but it won’t come from Gustafsson. In a dominant performance, Jones will take Gustafsson down and submit him to retain his title.

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