On a Saturday night primed by the sports goliaths of Floyd Mayweather, Jr. and Oklahoma Sooners football, the UFC has carved up an offering for the MMA populace.
Just another card in the middle of a busy month of fighting, Jake Shields and Jake Ellenberger headline UFC Fight Night: Battle on the Bayou. The two welterweights highlight a card low on immediate divisional impact but that doesn’t hinder the subplots behind Saturday night’s action.
1. What will Jake Shields’ mindset be like?
Unfortunately, it’s an issue that has to be broached entering Saturday’s main event as Jake Shields’ third fight in the UFC will come just three weeks after his father and manager, Jack, passed away at 67 years old.
People handle grief in different fashions and given the impact that Jack had on his son’s career, it wouldn’t have been scoffed on at all if Jake had opted to forgo his bout with Jake Ellenberger.
Nevertheless, the former Strikeforce middleweight champ has soldiered on, adhering to the refrain of that’s what his father would have wanted him to do. But where Jake’s head is at and how this unfortunate circumstance will affect him come fight night is something only he can answer.
There are several instances in sports where athletes have harnessed their craft and used it as an outlet to cope with the grief and as a result, propel themselves to a performance both spectacular and courageous. No amount of time can wash that memory clean, so all that remains is the question of just how Jake manages to embrace an untimely turn of events.
Most remember Brett Favre’s dissection of the Oakland Raiders for 399 yards and four touchdowns two days after his father passed away. Michael Jordan captured his third NBA Championship shortly after the death of his father.
Will Jake enjoy a Favre or Jordan moment of his own on Saturday night?
2. Can Jake Ellenberger make the leap?
To say Jake Ellenberger has rebounded nicely from his UFC debut loss to Carlos Condit would be an understatement.
The Nebraskan has strung together a four-fight winning streak, relying on his steadfast punching power and imposing wrestling base every step of the way. Shields represents easily the toughest hurdle of the 26-year-old’s run through the octagon and as a fighter on the brink of being talked about as among the welterweight division’s best, a win Saturday night could go as far as procuring a No. 1 contender’s bout for Ellenberger.
To do so, Ellenberger would be best suited to keep the action upright.
Despite whatever impressions his striking may have made in the later frames of his bout with Georges St. Pierre, Shields doesn’t want any part of Ellenberger’s power on the feet.
Neither will dazzle onlookers with their technique, being two fairly simplistic strikers, but whether it was his seven-second knockout of Jose Landi-Jons or turning Sean Pierson’s lights out on his feet, Ellenberger has every bit the ability to put Shields on the defensive if he can land. Where things go from there is a bit dicier, as Shields has always possessed a sturdy chin, most notably tested at the hands of Dan Henderson in the former’s comeback decision win.
What Shields can take pause in is that Ellenberger is fairly elementary off his back. With a UFC run that includes bouts against Condit and Mike Pyle, it’s the fairly-unheralded Carlos Eduardo Rocha who provided one of the stiffer challenges of Ellenberger’s career, primarily in an opening round that saw Jake swept and soundly out-grappled by the Brazilian.
While Rocha made few attempts at bringing the action back to the ground after a dominant first round, Shields likely won’t be as forgiving. Ellenberger’s recent surge has come without the challenge of a fighter that meshes wrestling and groundwork as soundly and tenaciously as Shields.
Simply put, Ellenberger’s takedown defense will be tested full-boar on Saturday.
3. How good are Jonathan Brookins and Court McGee?
The last 18 months of The Ultimate Fighter have produced both Court McGee and Jonathan Brookins, respective winners of the series’ 11th and 12th seasons.
Since their respective finale victories, the book for both is relatively thin. McGee’s lone post-TUF bout was a comeback win over Ryan Jensen, a fighter now seeking work outside of the UFC. McGee looked overmatched through a round-and-a-half against the more seasoned Jensen, rallying as his adversary’s gas tank faded.
A lunch pail fighter with a limited skillset and the heart of grit of a Forrest Griffin starter kit, McGee was sidelined by injury in April and upon his return Saturday, meets Dongi Yang, a fairly unknown DEEP and Sengoku veteran fresh off a beatdown of Rob Kimmons at UFC on Versus 3.
In Brookins’ case, he’s yet to enter the cage since besting Michael Johnson at the TUF 12 Finale as, like McGee, he succumbed to injuries that forced proposed bouts with John Makdessi and Jeremy Stephens to fall through. Returning to featherweight, Brookins meets rising prospect Erik Koch.
Like his TUF predecessor, Brookins left a bit to be desired last time he was seen in the cage, showcasing lackluster striking defense against an anything-but-polished Johnson.
It’s the kind of defense that could get him in trouble against the well-rounded Koch, whose lone loss came after succumbing to the power double leg of Chad Mendes.
In hindsight, not a bad loss, as Mendes’ drive and explosiveness are on another level from Brookins, whose best takedowns are throws from the clinch.
Saturday will hopefully give fans a better barometer for where both McGee and Brookins stand in their respective divisions, as I’m not sure many prognosticators can pick either fighter with overwhelming confidence.
Chalk it up to their relative lack of cage-time since TUF, but I’m skeptical on anything that churns from that reality show these days as the talent level is a far cry from the series’ earlier editions.
These days, any noteworthy prospect is just signed to a UFC contract then and there, with fans left to wonder just how good the fighters allotted to TUF really are. Heck, the last TUF winner to string together any sustained excellence was Ryan Bader from TUF 8, whose stock isn’t exactly at a high right now.
Fair or not, Brookins and McGee are guilty by association and neither fighter is being lobbed a softball from across the cage this weekend.
4. Can Alan Belcher pick up where he left off?
Whenever the phrase “career-threatening” is tossed around to describe an injury, it’s never good news.
Those words graced headlines for middleweight Alan Belcher after an emergency eye surgery that forced him out of a bout on Sept. 15, 2010 with Demain Maia. Reports stated that Belcher began to lose sight in his right eye while in Brazil, with what was deemed a detached retina requiring numerous surgeries since.
It’s a shame as Maia was a significant litmus test for Belcher, who was last seen submitting Patrick Cote at UFC 113. With only one loss to his name since 2008—a semi-controversial split decision to Yoshihiro Akiyama—Belcher had earned the right for a crack at the division’s non-Anderson Silva tier.
Now, a 16-month layoff deals Belcher Jason MacDonald, a journeyman with a world’s worth of experience under his belt and a fighter in the midst of his second tour through the UFC. One of the division’s more savvy submission specialists—and the only fighter in the UFC to go tit-for-tat with Demian Maia on the night—MacDonald has unfortunately shown a propensity to falter at the hands of superior strikers, ala Rich Franklin, Nate Quarry and Wilson Gouveia.
Belcher fits that mold and with a frame that dwarfs the casual middleweight, the chances to overwhelm MacDonald are very much present.
Should Belcher follow through on that task, all we can hope is that he doesn’t yet again drudge up his desire to fight Silva in his post-fight interview.
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