UFC on FX: Final Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions

This Friday, Jan. 20, the UFC arrives on FX.Just more than a week before the UFC’s first official event on FOX, the four-fight main card will feature two of the lightweight division’s former contenders in Jim Miller and Melvin Guillard.Rounded out by j…

This Friday, Jan. 20, the UFC arrives on FX.

Just more than a week before the UFC’s first official event on FOX, the four-fight main card will feature two of the lightweight division’s former contenders in Jim Miller and Melvin Guillard.

Rounded out by journeymen and up-and-comers alike, the rest of the main card fights don’t carry all that much significance, but they should be fun to watch, nonetheless:

  • Pat “HD” Barry vs. Christian Morecraft
  • Mike “The Hulk” Easton vs. Jared “The Jackhammer” Papazian
  • Duane “Bang” Ludwig vs. Josh “The Dentist” Neer
  • Jim Miller vs. Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard

The fights will get started at 9:00 p.m. ET on FX, with the undercard leading off on Fuel TV.

Without further ado, let’s get to the fights… 

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UFC’s Pre-Contract PED Screening Won’t Stop Fighters from Cheating

The Nevada State Athletic Commission wasn’t the only one with performance enhancing drugs (PEDs) on the mind today. Following the news that Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal tested positive for anabolic steroids after his Jan. 7 fight with Lorenz Larkin, t…

The Nevada State Athletic Commission wasn’t the only one with performance enhancing drugs (PEDs) on the mind today. 

Following the news that Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal tested positive for anabolic steroids after his Jan. 7 fight with Lorenz Larkin, the UFC had some PED news of its own.

Citing a commitment to the health and safety of its athletes, all incoming UFC and Strikeforce fighters will be subject to a mandatory pre-contract screening for PEDs prior to finalizing a contract, effective Jan. 1, 2012. 

Unfortunately, this will likely do little to actually prevent PED use amongst UFC and Strikeforce fighters. Though I commend Zuffa/the UFC on enacting this pro-active policy—something, after all, is at least better than nothing—it is ultimately little more than a nice sounding PR policy.

In fact, this policy is a perfect example of a flawed syllogism that is often cited in IT security, the “Security Syllogism.” It goes something like this:

  1. To be secure, we must do something.
  2. We are doing something.
  3. Therefore, we are secure. 

The fact that the minor premise (No. 2) meets the condition of the major premise (No. 1) does not necessitate a logical conclusion. The action taken in the minor premise must actually directly address the problem.

To put it a bit more simply, predictable, well-announced drug tests (such as those established by the UFC policy) allow athletes that may be using PEDs to time the tests and ensure their system is clean prior to being tested.

Only regularly occurring, random, out-of-competition tests will suitably ensure that PED abuse is being curbed. The risk of being tested must be so omnipresent that the only reasonable reaction is to not use banned substances at all.

As Sean McCorkle put it on MMAFighting.com’s The MMA Hour, “I think we’d be pretty naive to think that every person who’s ever taken anything was caught.”

Just because a fighter is tested once or twice at a pre-determined interval doesn’t at all mean that they are clean, it just means they didn’t have PEDs in their system when they were tested.

What would a good testing system look like? The World Anti-Doping Agency has already done a majority of the legwork for the UFC and major state athletic commissions by drafting and implementing a harmonized set of anti-doping rules, the World Anti-Doping Code.

So, let’s see the UFC put their money where their mouth is. Take real, meaningful steps towards eliminating the use of PEDs rather than setting up another easily foreseen hurdle.

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UFC Rio Fight Card: Why Gabriel Gonzaga Won’t Revitalize His Career at UFC 142

Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga is back.This Saturday, Jan. 14, Gonzaga will return to the UFC Octagon for the first time in nearly 15 months. Replacing the injured Rob Broughton, Gonzaga will face Edinaldo Oliveira at UFC 142 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.Gonzaga…

Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga is back.

This Saturday, Jan. 14, Gonzaga will return to the UFC Octagon for the first time in nearly 15 months. Replacing the injured Rob Broughton, Gonzaga will face Edinaldo Oliveira at UFC 142 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Gonzaga was cut by the UFC following his Oct. 23, 2010 loss to Brendan Schaub at UFC 121, his third loss in four outings. After defeating Parker Porter for the Reality Fighting Heavyweight Championship a year after his loss to Schaub, Gonzaga was able to ink a four-fight contract with the UFC.

He now begins his campaign to regain his old form that saw him challenge Randy Couture for the UFC Heavyweight Championship in 2007. 

However, Gonzaga’s road back to glory is a long and arduous one, filled with menacing opponents from the very start.

Oliveira, a 6’7″ Brazilian perhaps known best as a good friend and training partner of Junior dos Santos, presents a formidable challenge with his reach and striking ability. In dos Santos’ words, “[Oliveira is] a very distinct fighter and his reach is a great tool he has. He and I spar a lot and his reach definitely makes things a lot harder for me. I think that will be the same for any opponent they put before him.”

Gonzaga’s recent track record against strike-first fighters—losses to Schaub, dos Santos and Shane Carwin—isn’t a promising one, especially in light of Oliveira’s relative youth and flawless record. 

While this is admittedly an imprecise pseudo-science (at best), if Gonzaga was unable to handle dos Santos, his chances against dos Santos’ highly regarded training partner don’t look fantastic. If he should lose this weekend, Gonzaga may very well find himself out of a job again.

But assume for a moment that Gonzaga makes it past Oliveira (which, for the record, I don’t think he will), let’s even assume that he styles on Oliveira like he did Mirko Cro-Cop in 2007…where does he go next?

Will he do what he couldn’t last time against Fabricio Werdum? Carwin? Schaub? Could he then get past Matt Mitrione, Roy Nelson, Cheick Kongo, Cain Velasquez, Alistair Overeem, dos Santos??

The talent at heavyweight has only gotten bigger and better since Gonzaga last entered the Octagon. While he may be able to add another win or two to his record, I can’t imagine a possible scenario that sees Gonzaga bringing his dreams of attaining UFC gold to life.

Will we see Gonzaga end his career “on his shield”? Probably not. But don’t expect to see him breaking into the Top 10 rankings anytime soon.

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UFC 138 Results: Renan Barao Is One Win Away from a Title Shot

Renen Barao is the real deal.This past Saturday at UFC 138, Barao faced his toughest challenge yet. With his resounding defeat of Brad Pickett, Barao notched his 27th straight win—and 13th by submission.Both fighters came out swinging, and while …

Renen Barao is the real deal.

This past Saturday at UFC 138, Barao faced his toughest challenge yet. With his resounding defeat of Brad Pickett, Barao notched his 27th straight win—and 13th by submission.

Both fighters came out swinging, and while Barao got the better of most exchanges, Pickett held his own in the opening minutes. After catching Pickett square in the face with a knee, Barao threw a barrage of punches, knocked Pickett down, and wasted no time taking his back. 

Sinking in a body triangle to control Pickett, Barao eventually worked in a deep rear-naked choke, giving Pickett no choice but to tap.

For those who questioned Barao’s legitimacy in the bantamweight division, this was a compelling performance. Barao steamrolled his toughest opponent to date, in front of a hostile crowd to boot. Defeating Pickett, ranked No. 8 by USA Today/MMA Nation, should certainly land Barao firmly in the Top 10 rankings.

So…what’s next for Barao?

Given the relatively shallow bantamweight ranks, it’s easy to make a case for Barao to get the next title shot against champ Dominick Cruz. Top contenders Brian Bowles, Urijah Faber and Joseph Benavides have all already faced Cruz and lost. The UFC needs new blood at 135 lbs, and Barao offers exactly that.

However, while a title shot shouldn’t be completely out of the question, it makes more sense to put him in a title eliminator fight against the winner of Bowles vs. Faber at UFC 139.

Not only does Cruz need time to recover from hand surgery before facing his next opponent, a fight against either Bowles or Faber would allow fans to become more familiar with Barao and help build his brand. On the flip side, defeating Barao would also legitimize a second shot at Cruz for either Bowles or Faber.

Bowles and Faber face one another on Nov. 19, and barring any injuries, a fight against Barao should be possible for early 2012. By that point, Cruz should be ready to begin training again, with a mid to late 2012 title fight well within reason.

Your move, Sean Shelby.

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UFC 138 Fight Card: What Thiago Alves Must Do to Beat Papy Abedi

Thiago Alves will be looking to get back to his old ways against UFC newcomer Papy Abedi in the feature fight of the night. After winning seven straight fights to earn a title shot against Georges St-Pierre, Alves has been a dismal 1-3, most recen…

Thiago Alves will be looking to get back to his old ways against UFC newcomer Papy Abedi in the feature fight of the night. 

After winning seven straight fights to earn a title shot against Georges St-Pierre, Alves has been a dismal 1-3, most recently getting upset by Rick Story. Though his career probably isn’t at a risk tonight, Alves desperately needs to get his career back on track.

Standing across from him in the Octagon will be a legitimate challenge. Abedi is an undefeated middleweight prospect that uses his judo background to slam opponents to the mat, where he looks to ground-and-pound his way to a finish.

If Alves is going to win this fight, it will have to be on the feet. He’s had difficulties with wrestlers in the past, and Abedi’s strength and style will present him with difficulties on the ground.

There’s no question that Alves has the better striking in this fight. His biggest strength lays in his Muay Thai skills, utilizing short punch combinations to set up chopping leg kicks and clinch knees to soften his opponents body and chin. Alves will need to keep Abedi at a distance with quick, crisp punches and utilize intelligent footwork (something he doesn’t always do) to keep from being cornered up against the cage.

Given Abedi’s need to close the distance and get a hold of his opponent, there’s no doubt that we’ll see him pressing forward, working behind punches to close the distance and change levels. Alves needs to get the better of striking exchanges in the center of the cage and then circle off at angles to keep the action where he is most comfortable.

In no scenario should Alves engage in a clinch with Abedi, but if he finds himself there, his best bet is to fire off a knee or two towards Abedi’s head or body and then look to get Abedi’s hands off of him, throwing punches out of the clinch.

It’s always easier said than done to employ a game plan to perfection, but that is precisely what Alves will need to do tonight to stack the deck in his favor.

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UFC 138 Fight Card: Which Fighter Has the Most to Gain

UFC 138 takes place this Saturday, Nov. 5, in Birmingham, England.Though the fight card is full of UFC newcomers and up-and-comers whom have absolutely nothing to lose, one fighter in particular stands alone with the most to gain from a win on Saturday…

UFC 138 takes place this Saturday, Nov. 5, in Birmingham, England.

Though the fight card is full of UFC newcomers and up-and-comers whom have absolutely nothing to lose, one fighter in particular stands alone with the most to gain from a win on Saturday night.

Fighting in the main event, which happens to be the first five-round non-title fight in the UFC, Mark Munoz is a middleweight contender quickly on the rise.

With a 6-1 middleweight UFC record (he’s 6-2 overall in the UFC) and a three-fight win streak dating back to November 2010, Munoz is a top five middleweight poised to enter the title contention discussion.

Though it’s pretty much a given that Chael Sonnen is up next for Anderson Silva, a win over Chris Leben should all but guarantee Munoz the subsequent shot at Silva’s title.

“The Filipino Wrecking Machine” is one of the few top-ranked middleweights that haven’t already faced Silva, and Joe Silva will need fresh faces to put in against the champ, especially considering only Chael Sonnen’s performance has warranted a rematch thus far.

Though two other fighters on the UFC 138 card could also move themselves into title contention in their weight class—Brad Pickett and Renan Barao—none of them have the same momentum coming into this fight as Munoz.

Though Pickett and Barao are both talented bantamweights that could provide a challenge to Dominick Cruz, neither of them can match Munoz’s current winning streak over quality opponents. Either of them would likely need another win in 2012 in order to be truly “in the mix.”

Of course, all fighters on any given card need a win in order to further their fighting career, but none of them have as much to gain from a single win tonight as Mark Munoz.

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