Author: Nathan McCarter

Daniel Cormier pushed Jon Jones all night long at UFC 182 on Saturday, but it wasn’t to be. Jones is the class of the light heavyweight division and retained his championship title.

Cormier came out fast and kept a high pace through the early rounds, but he began to fade when the championship rounds hit. Jones took over the fight en route to the decision. It left Cormier broken and defeated. At the post-fight press conference, the emotions became too much.

The elite wrestler should not feel down for too long, because one look at the current light heavyweight landscape will show him that he is not far off from a rematch.

The winner of the upcoming bout between Alexander Gustafsson and Anthony Johnson will determine the next contender. That is almost a certainty. After those two contenders, the ranks are nearly depleted.

Rashad Evans is still recovering from injury. Phil Davis looked awful against Johnson. Glover Teixeira was defeated soundly by Jones, and Ryan Bader is only on a three-fight win streak over non-Top 10 competition. One win, or maybe two, for Cormier would put him right back in the catbird seat.

Cormier’s next fight will most likely still be against a Top 15 light heavyweight, but it should be a favorable matchup for him. A win there should put him right back into a title eliminator fight—or even possibly a title rematch right away, should all the pieces fall into place.

A big question mark will be the health of Cormier’s knee. If he addresses that issue, we do not know how long the contender will be on the shelf.

Jones’ dominance at 205 pounds has made many of his past opponents non-factors. The manner in which he beat most of his opposition makes them unappealing contenders even with win streaks. That is why no one is talking about Bader being a title contender.

Cormier was competitive enough to make a rematch feasible. He showed a champion’s heart and demonstrated that he can create issues for Jones while even at a physical disadvantage.

If the Jones-Cormier rematch becomes a realistic possibility in late 2015 or early 2016, the UFC will have another marquee fight on the docket. This rivalry will continue to draw the interest from hardcore and casual fans alike. And that is one of the main reasons Cormier can jump right back into title contention.

It was a rough night for the challenger, but Jones and the title are still within sight. The loss at UFC 182 did not erase Cormier from the title picture. He is good enough, and intelligent enough, to make the right adjustments to challenge Jones even more in a rematch.

The two talented fighters must win their next couple of fights, but the rematch is close, thanks to a weak division.

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The light heavyweight title tilt we have all been waiting for is nearly here, and the most compelling 205-pound championship fight ever has us all on the edge of our seats before the two combatants even step inside the cage.

Jon Jones defends his championship for a record eighth time when he faces No. 2-ranked contender Daniel Cormier.

Cormier is an elite wrestler who has dominated throughout his MMA career. He is 2-0 at light heavyweight after leaving the heavyweight division as one of its top contenders. Jones has been the greatest light heavyweight we have known in this young sport. Their collision is made even more enticing by the hatred they have for one another.

Here are their keys to victory in the UFC 182 main event.

Cormier‘s Keys to Victory

Close the Distance

Jones utilizes his reach better than almost anyone in the sport today, and he will have a 12″ reach advantage against Cormier. That puts the challenger at a significant disadvantage.

Cormier has dealt with this disadvantage nearly his entire career, and it has yet to be a big problem. It will be Saturday. It was not a big problem during Cormier’s bouts at heavyweight because of the nature of the individual matchups and the former Olympian’s grappling skills. He also possessed a speed advantage at heavyweight that he will not have against Jones.

The challenger has to find ways to get inside. He cannot be successful being stuck outside of range. This is his primary key to winning the fight.

 

Complete Takedowns

The better wrestler must get takedowns, but it is not because of how good he is in this specific area. Rather, it helps set up success later in the fight.

If Cormier is successful with his wrestling, then it makes Jones react to his shots and feints. It begins to give DC more options against Jones that he otherwise would not have. He will be able to slip in strikes as Jones reacts to defend.

If Jones can stuff the takedowns, his confidence will grow, and Cormier will not have many paths to victory.

 

Controlled Aggression

This is a grudge match of the highest order. They hate one another.

Cormier has to manager his anger and control his aggression. The greatest risk for making key mistakes is when a fighter cannot channel his anger accordingly. Being overaggressive leads to finishes. A cerebral fighter like Jones will take advantage.

The AKA product is a smart fighter in his own right, but he is the one that has to come forward to defeat the champion. He is the one who has to force the action. The onus is on him.

Cormier must stay within himself for however long the fight may go.

 

Jones’ Keys to Victory

Establish Distance

Cormier has to get inside, but Jones will want to establish his distance.

Jones does this in a variety of ways, but the two he is most effective with is the jab and front kick. His long limbs are one of the biggest reasons he is the champion today. No one uses his or her body as well as Jones.

Jones has made his natural advantages even more significant through his hard work during training. That is a credit to the tutelage of Greg Jackson and Mike Winklejohn.

Keeping DC on the outside will be Jones’ easiest path to victory Saturday, and it is also one of his easiest options.

 

Utilize Trips

Much like he can control the distance of the fights with his long legs, Jones also uses them expertly in fights.

Jones is not going to be able to clinch with Cormier and win the takedown battles. Cormier is just much better than him in that position, and he is the stronger fighter. Jones has to use leverage. He can be successful in tripping Cormier to the canvas.

We have not seen how Cormier reacts on the bottom, and Jones is always improving on his ground control. They both have amazing takedown defense, but Cormier‘s balance would be effected by one of Jones’ trips.

Landing even one successful takedown will take some confidence away from Cormier and open the former Olympian’s eyes to the notion that Jones can take him to the mat. It will make him begin to second guess.

 

Make DC Work

Cormier has went five rounds before, but that was in a fight where he controlled the action. DC tossed Josh Barnett around the cage and rode his way to the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix title.

Cormier’s cardio has never truly been tested. It is easy to manage your gas tank when you are the one in control from bell to bell. If Jones can force Cormier to work early and often, it will pay off in the championship rounds.

Jones has shown his heart and resolve in the past, and we know he can go five full rounds in a back-and-forth battle. He will need to keep a steady workrate Saturday against Cormier. If DC does begin to gas, it will be all over, and Jones will be able to do just about whatever he wants.

This is a fantastic fight that can go a number of ways. It will be about who executes his game plan, and who can make the necessary adjustments. Remember these keys to victory when the two elite fighters square off in Vegas and see who comes away holding 12 pounds of gold.

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UFC 182 is just days away, and the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship is up for grabs in one of the most heated matchups in UFC history.

Jon Jones defends the championship gold against No. 2-ranked contender Daniel Cormier.

According to Odds Shark, Jones is a 25-52 favorite to win. His status as the favorite is well deserved.

Cormier is an Olympic-caliber wrestler who has defeated each and every one of his 15 opponents in his professional MMA career. He won the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix with wins over Jeff Monson, Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva and Josh Barnett.

In the UFC, he has dispatched Frank Mir, Roy Nelson and Dan Henderson.

He has a list of talented names on his record, and no one has come close to beating him. But Jones is a different animal.

The reigning champion has a record of 20-1. His lone loss was a controversial disqualification loss to Matt Hamill due to illegal elbows. The fight was stopped, however, because of an injury that was caused during a takedown attempt. It was a fight Jones should have been awarded the victory in.

When Jones won and defended his title in 2011, it was one of the most impressive streaks in MMA history. He battered Ryan Bader, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Lyoto Machida in a single calendar year. All four fights were finished.

Since that day, he has added Rashad Evans, Vitor Belfort, Chael Sonnen, Alexander Gustafsson and Glover Teixeira to his list of defeated contenders. He is the greatest 205-pound fighter of all time.

His status as a favorite this weekend at UFC 182 is not just due to his past as a dominant champion. It is also a stylistic matchup that favors the champion.

Cormier has proven his wrestling skills have translated into the cage, but in order to use them, he has to get in close. That is where he will have the most trouble. One of Jones’ greatest attributes as a fighter is his ability to use his length. He keeps his opponents on the outside.

According to Fightnomics author Reed Kuhn (h/t UFC.com’s Thomas Gerbasi), the reach differential at UFC 182 will be the third-biggest in UFC history:

Jones is also the more developed mixed martial artist. At 35 years old, Cormier still has a lot of ground to make up. He can hide a lot of his holes with his elite-level skills as a wrestler, but against Jones the talent gap may be more evident.

Cormier has power in his hands and good striking basics, but hitting Jones from a foot away will prove to be difficult.

Cormier‘s path to victory is narrow.

He has to wrestle. That is it. Cormier has to cut off the cage, force Jones into a phone booth and beat him up. The prospect of accomplishing that task on Saturday is why he is an underdog.

Jones has many more outs, and as the fight draws on, the scales tilt even further in his favor.

Jones has beaten a wide array of styles. This is without question the best wrestler he has ever fought inside the cage, but that is only one aspect of MMA. Cormier has never seen a fighter like Jones. Ever. Jones is ever-developing his skill set, and each time we see him inside the cage, he brings out a new tool.

It is surprising that Jones is not a bigger favorite for this championship grudge match.

Why should Jones be favored?

He has established himself as the greatest light heavyweight of all time and has a decided advantage in every aspect of this fight other than wrestling. Even with the disadvantage in that one aspect, it will be hard for the challenger to exploit it from a foot away as he establishes range inside the Octagon.

This should be a fantastic fight, but all signs point to Jones as the one who gets his hand raised high.

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