At the risk of saying something totally obvious, the main event of UFC 141 is kind of a big deal.
On the one hand, it will be Brock Lesnar‘s first time in the Octagon since he got his face rearranged by Cain Velasquez at UFC 121 way back in October of 2010. His health betrayed him (again) soon after, but indications are that he’s as healthy as he’s ever going to be.
In addition, the UFC 141 main event will be Alistair Overeem’s very first fight in the UFC ranks. That might make some people nervous about his prospects, but we’re talking about a guy who has been fighting for a long, long time. To boot, he’s only getting better. He’s ready for UFC, and you better believe that he has the goods to beat Lesnar, the former UFC Heavyweight champ.
But only if Overeem fights his fight. If he fights Lesnar’s fight, he’s doomed.
To avoid fighting Lesnar’s fight, the one thing Overeem has to do is stay off the ground. If Lesnar gets him on the ground, his elite wrestling talents will take over, and Overeem will be at a huge disadvantage.
Overeem knows this, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to stay on his feet the whole fight. The longer the fight drags on, the more danger Overeem will be in.
That’s why he would be wise to end it quickly. In fact, Overeem shouldn’t even let this fight go a full round.
This will be easier said than done, but it’s not impossible. It’s no secret that the book on Lesnar is that he can’t take a punch, and the book on Overeem is that he can deliver them. He can also deliver knees, though he would be wise to be very careful with his footing against Lesnar.
I highly doubt that Lesnar will be done in by a single punch (a la Velasquez against Junior dos Santos), but a quick study of the Lesnar vs. Velasquez bout will show that one punch can rob Lesnar of his wits. A few more where that one punch came from will finish Lesnar for good.
The long layoff won’t necessarily make Lesnar any more vulnerable. Indeed, his health kept him out of action for a year from July of 2009 to July of 2010, yet he came back strong to beat Shane Carwin at UFC 116 via a second-round submission.
Overeem can avoid becoming like Carwin by keeping his bout with Lesnar confined to the first round, preferably within the first two or thee minutes. Anything longer than that, and Overeem will be pushing his luck.
If Lesnar beats Overeem, Lesnar will be back.
If Overeem beats Lesnar, Lesnar may be done.
Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com