Conor McGregor has the opportunity to send his already notorious legacy into orbit on Saturday, November 12, when he takes on Eddie Alvarez at UFC 205.
The UFC featherweight champion will look to become the first fighter to hold two UFC belts simultaneously by capturing Alvarez’s lightweight belt on an absolutely stacked card.
McGregor and Alvarez’s stocks are both at an all-time high.
The Notorious is fresh off a win that avenged his only UFC loss. He made the right adjustments and won a battle with Nate Diaz that only served to show his ability to adjust to an opponent from fight to fight, but also his ability to win fights at multiple weight divisions.
Meanwhile Alvarez is coming off the performance of his life. He captured the lightweight title by blitzkrieging former champion Rafael dos Anjos in the first round.
Here’s a look at the career stats and how each fighter got to this spot leading up to their showdown.
How Eddie Alvarez Got Here
Eddie Alvarez as a UFC champion was a thought that many considered could happen when Alvarez was running roughshod over the entire lightweight division at Bellator from 2009 to 2013. He was always among the top fighters anytime non-UFC talent came up.
But when the 32-year-old did finally come to the UFC, the fanfare was shot down fairly quickly by Donald Cerrone. Cowboy bear Alvarez in his UFC debut via unanimous decision and cast doubt on just how good Alvarez really was.
Since then, Alvarez has done nothing but win on his way to UFC gold.
Perhaps the most underrated champion on the roster, he is on a three-fight win streak that includes victories over Gilbert Melendez, Anthony Pettis and Rafael dos Anjos.
It’s tough to find a more impressive three-fight stretch of opponents.
In some ways, Alvarez is the antithesis of McGregor. Where the Irishman has been groomed for UFC stardom from Day 1, Alvarez fought for years outside of the UFC before finally getting his shot and has had nothing but tough fights since joining the organization.
“It happened slowly for me; it didn’t happen overnight,” Alvarez said of his path to the title, per Lance Pugmire of the Los Angeles Times. “But I had an idea and belief in my mind that if I wasn’t concerned with what I was getting, and only concerned with what I was giving, I would never grow bitter or angry.”
As a fighter, Alvarez’s approach to fighting is indicative of his path. He fights like a veteran of the sport. His greatest strength might just be his adaptability, as he’s capable of playing the role of stifling wrestler—like he did in a decision win over Pettis—or he can be a powerful striker a la his first-round finish over RDA for the title.
That adaptability will be key in fighting McGregor, as he’s going against one of the most technically sound fighters in the game.
How Conor McGregor Got Here
The simple answer to that question is by being the most interesting fighter in the sport.
Through a combination of bravado, mystery and skill, McGregor has made himself must-watch TV. When he’s fighting, there’s a buzz that few in the sport have been able to create.
But behind all the hype is a fighter who is actually a tough out for anyone within his weight-class range.
The use of the word “range” in this instance is accurate. After dusting Jose Aldo in seconds, it became clear that McGregor‘s greatest challenges might lay outside of the 145-pound weight class.
Of course, fate wouldn’t allow his next fight after that to take place at 155, but rather a short-notice fight with Nate Diaz took place at welterweight. Then, after struggling with cardio at 170, the champion insisted on taking the rematch with Diaz at welterweight again.
Then McGregor put on a masterful performance at 170 in the rematch, which begs the question: Have we even seen The Notorious at his optimal weight class?
The answer is probably no.
The Irishman looks emaciated when weighing in at 145, a weight cut that almost certainly leaves McGregor drained of some power even when fight night rolls around. However, he is just 1-1 as a welterweight and appears to be a little more soft at 170 pounds.
Looking at the two in staredowns like the one that Fox Sports shared, McGregor should be the bigger man on Saturday night:
That means that as good as McGregor has been, the 155-pound version that fans will see on Saturday might be the best incarnation yet.
That’s a scary thought for Alvarez and anyone who wants to see the brash fighter go down.
Prediction
The oddsmakers see this as a near toss-up, with the Irishman clocking in as a small 13-20 favorite, per Odds Shark.
That’s understandable. Alvarez is one of the most accomplished fighters that McGregor has come across, and there are some weaknesses in Mystic Mac’s game that he very well could expose.
For instance, if Alvarez is able to pin McGregor against the cage and force him to carry his weight—like he did when he sucked the life out of Anthony Pettis—he will be on his way to retaining the title. Although lightweight might be the best weight class for McGregor, he’s been bullied in the grappling department before by Diaz and Chad Mendes.
However, the most likely scenario remains a McGregor win that sees him hold two belts simultaneously.
McGregor‘s ability to play the role of aggressor and crafty counterpuncher make him the perfect kryptonite to Alvarez’s striking game, and no one has been able to pin McGregor down over the course of a five-round fight.
He will eventually force him into stand-up exchanges, and McGregor will come out on top of those.
Prediction: McGregor via third-round TKO
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