Michael Bisping will have had 2,646 days to plot his revenge against Dan Henderson by the time the two middleweights step into the cage to headline UFC 204 in Manchester, England.
That’s how long it’s been since Henderson knocked out Bisping in iconic fashion at UFC 100.
A lot has changed since then, but the disdain between the two fighters remains the same. That’s why this is one of those title fights that feels like it’s for more than just a belt. This is a point of pride for both fighters, and there’s a lot on the line.
For Bisping, this is a chance to avenge the worst loss of his career while defending the belt in front of a home crowd. For Henderson, it’s the chance to finish his career on the high note of embarrassing an old rival again.
Here’s a look at how the two stack up and the latest odds from Odds Shark heading into the bout:
How Henderson Got Here
Let’s be honest. Dan Henderson got to this point through nostalgia.
There was a point in time when Hendo was one of the baddest men on the planet. But he’s 46 now. He’s 3-6 in his last nine fights spanning back to 2013.
That isn’t the resume of your average title contender.
Consider this title shot his lifetime achievement award.
Despite his run as one of the UFC’s most recognizable and popular fighters, Henderson is usually atop the list of the best fighters who never held UFC gold. This fight is his last opportunity to do that before walking away from the sport, supposedly.
“I’ve said that, win or lose, that this is my last fight, and I’m very stuck on that,” Henderson said, per Mike Bohn of MMAjunkie. “I have no desire to go on afterward. Win or lose—obviously I would like to finish with that belt. That would be an ideal ending for me but I’m ready.”
Henderson’s recent track record shows that he might not be the favorite, but he’s still a live dog. Power is oftentimes the last thing to go, and Henderson showed he still has some left with a knockout win over Hector Lombard last time out.
Still, it’s been seven years since Henderson landed this hellacious overhand right to end Bisping’s night at UFC 100:
He’ll have to turn back the clocks to get the one thing that he wasn’t able to capture in his career.
How Bisping Got Here
Speaking of doing the one thing they’ve never done before. Bisping now has the title for displaying the thing that most critics didn’t believe he could do: knock out an opponent with one strike.
Bisping shocked the world with his knockout win over Luke Rockhold, not just because he won, but because he won by first-round knockout. He hadn’t done that since 2008.
The Count’s path to the title has been one marked by perseverance. Bisping described what it was like to wait 10 years since his UFC debut to become champion, per Richard McCarthy of the Press Association (via the Daily Mail):
I always wanted to be UFC champion and I never stopped trying. I lost some No 1 contender match-ups but I dusted myself off, got back on it, and here we are as world champion.
There were times along the way when I never thought it would happen. I was happy because I was still in a sport that I love and still taking care of my family, but I still wanted to be world champion and, with a bit of luck, I got there.
Unlike Henderson, Bisping has experienced a bit of a late-career renaissance. The Brit has won four fights in a row since losing to Luke Rockhold in November 2014, with his latest win bringing that loss full circle.
The biggest contributor to that resurgence has probably been Bisping’s volume. Aside from the Rockhold fight that ended early, The Count has landed 75, 115 and 108 significant strikes in decision victories.
That kind of pressure will need to be an important part of his game plan against Henderson.
Prediction
Volume is an important aspect of this fight. If you want to know the last time that Dan Henderson landed 100 strikes in a fight, it’s never happened. That’s not his MO.
Henderson looks to load up on the one punch that will end the fight. Bisping is more prone to fight for points and pounce on the knockout opportunity if it shows itself.
It’s a game of risk and reward that both fighters have won with. Henderson was even outlanded in his last fight against Lombard, 23-13.
However, that game is becoming more and more dangerous for Henderson as he ages. Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics pointed out the statistic basis for the deterioration of Hendo’s chin:
That’s a concerning pattern for fans of the challenger.
Henderson’s “I’m going to hit you harder than you hit me” tactics worked perfectly against Bisping when his chin was intact. There’s no doubt that Henderson is the more powerful fighter, however, Father Time has evened things out in that department.
Bisping doesn’t have supreme power, but his timing and technique are excellent and that might be enough to put an end to Henderson’s night.
Hendo has been finished in each of his last four losses, and Bisping could make it five.
Prediction: Bisping via third-round TKO
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