On one side, a title shot hangs in the balance. On the other side, a win could mean a huge payoff in free agency.
When welterweights Stephen Thompson and Rory MacDonald face off Saturday in the main event of UFC Fight Night 89 in Ottawa, Canada, there will be a lot on the line. As has been thoroughly reported, this is the final fight on MacDonald’s contract, and a win would surely improve his bargaining position. A win would be the seventh in a row for Thompson, and as he himself pointed out, it’s hard to imagine him not receiving a date with champ Robbie Lawler if he gets past MacDonald.
Who has the most to gain or lose? What are each fighter’s keys to victory? And what about the rest of the card?
Glad you asked. Here to talk us through it is Fox Sports 1 UFC analyst Brian Stann. We will parse it out in an innovative Q&A format (questions and responses edited for length).
Bleacher Report MMA: So between MacDonald and Thompson, is it possible to say who has the most at stake on Saturday?
Stann: Rory has the much bigger stakes. Stephen Thompson has never fought Robbie Lawler before. Rory MacDonald has already fought Lawler twice and lost. He’s fighting for the last contract of his career. He’s got to do something with this. Win it and win in style, and he has big negotiating power. We need a good draw in Canada.
B/R MMA: What do these fighters have to do to win?
Stann: It comes down to which one owns the center of the Octagon. Can Rory MacDonald get past the right leg of Stephen Thompson? I think [Thompson] will start off mostly southpaw, and he’ll use that side kick to keep him at a distance. MacDonald is great at catching kicks. If Thompson uses that more traditional muay thai style of kick, those MacDonald can catch and turn into takedowns. But those heel and side kicks are much harder to catch. He can throw those and force MacDonald to fight long. MacDonald has to work behind his jab and get inside.
B/R MMA: The co-main event pits Donald Cerrone against Patrick Cote. A lot of people see a brawl ensuing here. How do you see it unfolding?
Stann: If I’m Patrick Cote, I don’t let it play out that way. He’s a lot bigger but he has a speed disadvantage and, honestly, a cardio disadvantage. For Cote, he should clinch Cerrone along the fence and grind. Don’t let Cowboy dictate the pace. You’ve got to back Cowboy up. Take advantage of his narrow, straight stance. Fire off overhand rights, take him down, stay on top and stay busy.
I don’t like this fight for Cowboy. If you move up it’s one thing to fight a guy like Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira. It’s another thing to fight a guy on a winning streak who has power and once fought at 205 [pounds]. Taking this fight is an unnecessary risk, unless you just want to get paid or stay busy. I know risk isn’t in Cowboy’s vocabulary, and the fans all love him for that. But if I’m his friend or his manager, I’m scratching my head at this one. But hey, if he did go win this fight, I’m sure he’ll find me and flip me the bird. [laughs]
B/R MMA: Are there any other fights on the card that grab your attention?
Stann: Joanne Calderwood versus Valerie Letourneau. Both are really good technical fighters and are a lot better than they’ve shown to date. Letourneau is better than she realizes she is. It’s a matter of if she can start to believe. Calderwood has had a myriad of personal problems in her training atmosphere. Now she’s at Tristar [in Canada]. It will be interesting to see if she can begin to believe in those skills and talents and just let it fly.
I’d also say Sam Alvey and Elias Theodorou. Both of these guys are charismatic and fun to watch. Elias Theodorou is a very witty guy and great on social media. He really interacts with the fans and does a good job of promoting his fights. They can each make a statement here, go from a fringe prospect to getting a top-15 opponent in their next fight.
Scott Harris writes about MMA for Bleacher Report. Scott is available on Twitter. All quotes obtained firsthand.
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