The UFC Fight Night in Dublin card on Saturday has been ripped to shreds by injury, but the DraftKings show must go on. The event has lost a heavyweight scrap between Stipe Miocic and Ben Rothwell because of an injury to the former.
On Wednesday, the headline bout was also cancelled as Joe Duffy was scratched from his bout with Dustin Poirier because of a mild concussion, per Tristen Critchfield of Sherdog.com.
The main event is now Paddy Holohan ($9,600) vs. Louis Smolka ($9,800), and DraftKings players would be wise to steer clear of this one.
Aside from the obvious similarities in DK salary, this bout is also less than appealing because of the way the two fighters’ styles mesh. Both men are very comfortable and experienced grapplers. Holohan has captured eight of his nine wins by submission. Smolka has nine professional victories, and four have come by way of submission.
Neither man has ever been stopped, let alone submitted; this has grappling battle written all over it. Neither man is averaging more than 63.3 fantasy points per bout. The fight seems like a prime candidate to end in a decision with very low point totals going to the winner.
Which fighter should anchor your team on this injury-ravaged card? Here are the five I recommend:
Safest Pick
Stevie Ray ($11,000)
In two UFC fights, Stevie Ray has proven to be explosive. He’s scored a knockout win in each of his fights with the promotion. On average, Ray has scored 101.5 fantasy points per bout.
He’s facing France’s rugged Mickael Lebout, who has been stopped just once in his career. That loss came via doctor’s stoppage back in 2013 against Elijah Bokelli in the Supreme League Finals.
While LeBout has proven to be a tough man to halt in his career, he’s had just one fight in the UFC. This will be a major step up for him, and Ray is a hungry fighter looking for a stoppage victory.
The speed advantage will be heavily in his favor, as will the crowd support for the 25-year-old from Scotland. He’ll ride the wave to an early stoppage victory.
Sleeper Pick
Reza Madadi ($8,600)
After a two-year absence from the UFC, Reza Madadi is making his return to the promotion. He has one of the lowest DK salaries in the event, but there’s reason to believe in him.
The last time we saw Madadi, he submitted the highly regarded Michael Johnson via Brabo Choke back in April 2013. On Saturday, he’ll be taking on crowd favorite Norman Parke.
The latter is a tough cookie who will always battle his opponent, but Parke has also struggled to finish opponents in the UFC. He has just one win by stoppage in the promotion. He fights with a ton of emotion, and that causes him to lose advantageous positions at times.
The veteran Madadi has the type of superior ground game that enables him to take advantage of those types of errors. Parke has lost two straight fights, and I’m going to go out on a limb and say the streak hits three.
The two men have a combined 20 wins by submission in their careers, but I believe Madadi’s ground game is a little tighter. He will get the better of Parke during scrambles and parlay one of those opportunities into a rear-naked choke for the win.
The Rest
Why Tom Breese ($10,000)
In his lone UFC bout against Luiz Jorge Dutra Jr. in May 2014, Breese racked up 117 fantasy points in his first-round KO. He’s facing Cathal Pendred on Saturday, and Breese has several advantages in this fight.
Pendred is one of the worst strikers in the UFC. Aside from his slow feet and hands, Pendred averages just 2.58 strikes per minute, per FightMetric.com. His defense also leaves a bit to be desired. He stops only 51 percent of the strikes thrown at him.
Breese has the speed and length at 6’3″ to take advantage of Pendred’s subpar athleticism.
Pendred is tough and has a great chin, but Breese should experience great success picking him apart in the stand-up game.
The only chance Pendred has to win is to get the fight to the ground, but even there Breese can handle himself. Six of his eight wins have come by submission.
This one should end in a win for Breese by second-round submission or via a dominant unanimous decision where he racks up fantasy points with strikes.
Why Till
The Darren Till vs. Nicolas Dalby bout is one of the toughest to call. Both men have very good stand-up skills, but there’s something about Till’s quick-twitch athleticism and explosiveness that makes me think he’ll win.
He won his UFC debut in impressive fashion as he scored a KO win over Wendell de Oliveira Marques in May. Dalby also won his first and only UFC bout over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos on the same card.
This bout should be entertaining while it lasts. Both men can really crack, but based on what we saw in May and in fights before they arrived in the UFC, Till appears to have an edge in speed. In a fight that should be contested primarily on the feet, Till is the pick to win by TKO or KO.
Why Bush
It’s been more than a year since Bubba Bush last appeared in the Octagon. It was his debut, and it didn’t go so well. He was knocked out in 61 seconds by Kevin Casey in July 2014, but the result was overturned after Casey failed a post-fight drug test for anabolic steroids.
Before that, Bush had made a solid name for himself in the Legacy Fighting Championship. He’d won his last four fights, with two victories coming by submission and the other two by KO.
On Saturday, he will face South African Garreth McLellan. The latter is primarily a submissions fighter whose striking and takedown defense left a lot to be desired in his UFC debut against Bartosz Fabinski in April.
McLellan’s striking defense was at just 22 percent, and his takedown defense was at nine. Bush is a bull who likes to apply pressure.
His strength and athleticism will close the distance against McLellan and lead to a KO victory.
Follow Brian Mazique on Twitter
Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com