Dan Henderson is a Hall of Famer and a former champion. But if he wants to once again be called a reigning champion, he’ll need to look outside the UFC’s light heavyweight division.
That is the class where Hendo currently finds himself, and it’s where he’ll face reigning champ Jon Jones. But even though he has the title shot in hand, it doesn’t seem like his most likely path to a title.
Why don’t we look at the UFC’s top five heavyweights, light heavyweights and middleweights, according to Bleacher Report, and compare them with Henderson. We can estimate how many we think he’d beat, and make a determination about his prospects.
Right now, the top five light heavyweights (give or take) are Rashad Evans, Lyoto Machida, Shogun Rua, Henderson and Jones.
Will I pay to watch Hendo fight Jones? Sure. Does he have a good chance? I don’t think he does.
I also really don’t think, at 41, he’d have a chance against an angry Evans (or even an angry Shogun, for that matter).
I don’t think he has the ability to control Jones. He can knock anyone out, or resist any knockout, but I don’t believe he has the perimeter tools or the raw strength on the ground or in the clinch to make Jones uncomfortable.
I’d say he has a chance against Machida and maybe Rua. So call that a 1.5.
Now the top middleweights: Anderson Silva, Chael Sonnen, Vitor Belfort, Mark Munoz and Michael Bisping.
I would give Hendo a good chance against three of those guys. And it’s perfectly realistic to think his superior wrestling and punching power could level the playing field against Silva or Sonnen. Call that a 3.5.
Now, the heavyweights. Probably his least-natural weight class, but of course, the one at which he defeated Fedor Emelianenko. But at this point, how impressive is that, really? My answer is: not very impressive.
In any case, the UFC’s top five 255ers are Junior dos Santos, Frank Mir, Cain Velasquez, Alistair Overeem and Fabricio Werdum.
I’d give Hendo a chance against Werdum. That, as they say, is the list. The rest, I think, could simply overpower him, either vertically, horizontally or both.
So, according to this highly scientific research, Henderson has the worst chance for gold against other heavyweights. Light heavyweights are in the middle, but middleweight is where he has the best chance.
Not only against the top five in the UFC, on average, but also against the champ. It’s no sure thing, to be certain, especially since Silva has already defeated Henderson. But it’s less a matchup nightmare for Henderson and his mauling style than Jon Jones or Junior dos Santos.
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