A last-minute cancellation of the co-main event has done little to quell the hype for the main attraction, a light heavyweight title bout between Daniel Cormier and Alexander Gustafsson Saturday night at UFC 192 in Houston.
Johny Hendricks’ bout with Tyron Woodley was canceled on the eve of fight night, but the main event had no such troubles Friday. The two fighters vying for the right to eventually face Jon Jones look prepared to battle if the weigh-in is any indication, as UFC showed on Twitter:
As you can tell by simply looking at the two standing across from each other, each fighter brings a unique skill set. Both Cormier and Gustafsson will have to establish different things in order to get the advantage in what’s likely to be a five-round slugfest.
With that in mind, let’s look at the keys to victory for both.
Daniel Cormier
For Cormier, a triumph is easier said than done against an opponent like Gustafsson. But if he sticks to the style that has garnered him victories in 16 of his 17 career MMA appearances, he’ll remain a world champion.
He’s not the polished striker that you see on the other side of the Octagon, but that’s never mattered so far as Cormier‘s fighting goes. His prowess as an immensely strong wrestler and a sound defender gives him a combination that has frustrated even the best light heavyweights.
Cormier concedes a six-inch height disadvantage and seven inches of reach to Gustafsson, which means the champion can’t afford to get into tight positions where the Swede’s talented striking can make a difference.
As nearly perfect as Cormier‘s UFC career has been, he showed during his fight with Jon Jones how a lengthy and aggressive opponent can get into those tight spots.
Of course, the 36-year-old proved in his recent win over Anthony “Rumble” Johnson that he can handle a powerful puncher. But as Jonathan Snowden of Bleacher Report notes, Gustafsson has the combination of power and stamina that Cormier has rarely faced:
For all the power and grit that the Sweden native boasts, his being in a number of bloody slugfests is no coincidence. Gustafsson struggles to defend himself, absorbing 3.38 significant strikes per minute to Cormier‘s 1.71, per UFC.com.
Getting the fight to the mat at times will help, but Cormier also needs to stand tall and put plenty of shots on Gustafsson‘s chin. We’ve seen multiple times how the challenger can get it going, and Cormier cannot afford to go down that path.
Alexander Gustafsson
The Mauler is facing a style of opponent that he’s rarely encountered over the last several years, which could end up being the best—or the worst—thing in the world for him.
On paper, one would give Gustafsson much more than a fighting chance to pull off the upset. He has a sizable reach advantage, towers over his opponent and has that near-victory against Jones still fresh on the sport’s mind.
He’s at least confident in his chances for glory Saturday night, per MMAFighting.com:
There’s also an easy argument to make that Gustafsson stands no chance. After all, he lost in one round to the same Anthony Johnson whom Cormier turned around to convincingly submit in the third round in May.
Johnson’s fight with Cormier provided a game plan for Gustafsson, though. In the early minutes, Johnson’s ability to stay deep and focus on his striking put the champion down multiple times; Rumble looked in multiple situations like he would pull off the upset.
With that being said, Gustafsson has power in his hands and the know-how to use them that Johnson hasn’t quite figured out yet. If he can stay out of Cormier‘s zone and lean on that, he has a good chance to rough DC up throughout the five rounds.
Stay off the ground, avoid getting into striking position for Cormier and unleash those deadly hands. That’s how Gustafsson becomes a world champion.
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