Although Alexander Gustafsson and Daniel Cormier are headlining UFC 192 on Saturday night, the mere thought of a return to the Octagon for Jon Jones is dominating much of the discussion heading into this weekend.
The former champion pleaded guilty to a charge stemming from his alleged hit-and-run this past summer.
The UFC didn’t outright confirm it will lift Jones’ suspension but said in a statement it “will thoroughly review [Jones’ plea] agreement before discussing Jones’ possible reinstatement to return to competition,” via MMA Mania’s Jesse Holland.
Former UFC fighter and current Fox Sports analyst Brian Stann told FoxSports.com’s Damon Martin:
You couldn’t have drawn up a better narrative for this thing to take place. Whether Gustafsson wins this fight, people have been clamoring to see a rematch there with Jon Jones, and obviously if Daniel Cormier defends his title and wins, it’s going to be him versus Jon Jones again. It’s going to be ridiculous in terms of the buildup for that fight and the trash talk that would take place.
Gustafsson vs. Cormier is absolutely the fight that needs to happen in UFC’s light heavyweight division and should be extremely entertaining. But in a sense, it’s really only the appetizer for the inevitable Jones return bout.
Prediction
According to Odds Shark, Cormier is a 1-2 favorite to win, while Gustafsson is the underdog, albeit with relatively good 17-10 odds.
While Gustafsson is the No. 3 light heavyweight in UFC’s official rankings, he lost to Jones via unanimous decision at UFC 165 and then to Anthony Johnson in a first-round TKO at UFC on Fox 14. Sandwiched between those two fights is a second-round victory over Jimi Manuwa at UFC Fight Night 37.
Cormier said of his opponent, per Martin:
If I looked at his career and his resume, I would say he beat the guys he’s supposed to beat and any time it’s a toss-up fight he loses. In the fights that he’s not overwhelmingly favored, he really hasn’t done as well as he should outside of the fight with (Jon) Jones where he was a huge underdog and he really fought outside of himself and I truly do believe it was him fighting his best fight and Jones might have fought his worst fight and it was super close.
Meanwhile, Cormier’s one loss in his competitive MMA career was to Jones at UFC 182. He followed that up with a third-round submission win over Johnson at UFC 187 for the light heavyweight title.
Since he’s the challenger, Gustafsson will need to find a delicate balance between being aggressive and cautious so he doesn’t open himself up and allow Cormier to win quickly via knockout or submission.
Gustafsson will also want to keep a safe distance so as to avoid getting in clinches, where Cormier is at his most effective. The tighter the quarters, the more Cormier dominates.
Given Gustafsson’s wrestling prowess and overall agility, staying on the outside shouldn’t be a major issue.
To a certain extent, it feels as if the 28-year-old Swede isn’t getting the respect he deserves; even Cormier is seemingly underselling Gustafsson’s accomplishments based on his above comments. Bleacher Report’s Patrick Wyman firmly believes Gustafsson is capable of winning this fight:
However, Cormier is the top guy in the light heavyweight division for a reason. He possesses a great blend of technique, strength and skill. He also proved against Jones he’s able to close the distance between himself and an opponent who tries to stay on the outside.
Plus, the onus is on Gustafsson to go above and beyond to prove he’s the better fighter. The champion’s advantage isn’t technically a real thing that’s supposed to exist, but you often see judges giving the benefit of the doubt to the guy holding the belt. If a fight is close, nine times out of 10 the champ retains.
Cormier is too good to get himself caught in a compromising situation, and he’ll do enough in the Octagon to sway the judges.
Prediction: Cormier via split decision
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