Size discrimination may prevent some MMA fans from appreciating the UFC 191 main event rematch between flyweight champion Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson and John “The Magician” Dodson. However, hardcore fans know they are in for elite-level MMA from two of the fastest and most skilled fighters in the sport.
Johnson took a unanimous-decision victory over Dodson when the two first met back in March 2013. Since then, he has gone on to establish himself as arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. Dodson has won three fights in a row, and he recently returned to action after suffering a torn ACL in July 2014.
Both men weighed in successfully Friday, with Johnson checking in at 124.5 and Dodson at 125. Here’s a look at the weigh-in and a quick interview with both men, via Fox Sports UFC on Twitter:
All nine of MMA Junkie’s staff of experts believe Johnson will retain his title. What does he need to do to notch another victory? What does Dodson need to do to change the outcome? Read on to find out.
Dodson’s Keys to Victory
Stay off the Ground
Dodson’s best chance to win is in the stand-up game. If the fight goes to the ground, he’ll be at a clear disadvantage. Johnson’s transitions on the mat are the best in the division and among the elite in the sport.
Dodson’s game is to land with his quick and explosive strikes. To play to this strength, he must control distance and stay out of the champion’s grasp.
Land Big Shots Early
In their first fight, Dodson knocked Johnson down and landed a few other big shots that got the champion’s attention. He needs to again create that doubt in the champion’s mind by landing another big strike early in the fight.
If Dodson can connect, he could gain a psychological advantage in the fight—if he doesn’t finish with another opportunity to put Johnson away.
Conserve Energy
Dodson seemed to gas a bit in the first fight. He’s a naturally hyper guy who expends tons of energy. He usually looks great in three-rounders, but he’s lost both of the five-round fights in his career.
Aside from dropping the decision to Johnson in 2013, Dodson also lost a split decision to Pat Runez in 2009. Johnson doesn’t have any issues with stamina, and he’s proved he can perform in championship matches.
The champion is 6-1 in his fights that have either gone into the fifth round or lasted the distance. If Dodson can’t get Johnson out early, his chances of winning dramatically decrease. To try and combat this, he has to leave something in the tank for the championship rounds.
Johnson’s Keys to Victory
Counter KO Swings with Takedowns
Dodson will be looking for the home run because of the aforementioned dynamics. Johnson must be ready to slip—which is something he does as well as any fighter—and then change levels to shoot for the takedown.
The champion will have to pick his spots. Dodson’s takedown defense is at 88 percent, per FightMetric. Catching him immediately after the strike misses its mark would be ideal. If Johnson can get Dodson to the ground, he may remain there for the rest of the round—or until the champion submits him.
Dodson is a relatively small threat on the ground. He has just two submission wins in his career, and both came against the same guy, Zac White, in 2004 and 2007.
Be Patient
There’s no need for Johnson to rush. When it comes to winning rounds, he appears to understand that concept a little better than Dodson does. Fast and steady wins the race for Johnson. That means that while speed will always be a major component of his success, he doesn’t need to rush to a result.
If he takes his time, the win will come because he’s the more well-rounded fighter.
Fighter record references per Sherdog.
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