Nobody thought Gilbert Melendez would start his UFC career 1-3.
The former Strikeforce lightweight champion had just been too good during a decade spent fighting elsewhere. By the time the UFC absorbed Melendez with the rest of Strikeforce at beginning of 2013, he’d amassed a record of 21-2 and had deeply ensconced himself among the top 155-pounders in the world.
At the time, Melendez was considered perhaps the biggest prize of that acquisition. During the ensuing couple of years, however, he hasn’t soared to the heights of fellow Strikeforce alums like Ronda Rousey, Daniel Cormier or Fabricio Werdum. In fact, when Melendez dropped a particularly tough split-decision verdict to Eddie Alvarez last weekend at UFC 188, it raised some disquieting questions about his future.
Have we seen the last of Gilbert Melendez as a top contender?
Is he just another cautionary example of a champion from a smaller organization underwhelming in the Octagon?
Is the 33-year-old former titlist—for lack of a better term—old news in the sport’s most competitive weight class?
The answer to at least that final question remains: No, not yet.
But the margin for error will be very, very slim moving forward.
It’s troubling to think of Melendez as a loser in three of his last four fights, but it’s also a reminder that wins and losses rarely tell the whole story in MMA. A few twists here, a few lucky breaks there, and Melendez could just as easily be 3-1 right now—and maybe we’d even be talking about him as a former UFC champion.
To date, his only really definitive loss in the Octagon came at UFC 181, via second-round submission, to then-champ Anthony Pettis. Prior to that, he’d defeated Diego Sanchez in a crowd-pleasing slugfest at UFC 166 and fought Benson Henderson—who was also the champion at the time of their bout—to a tight split-decision loss in his promotional debut.
The Henderson fight was one of a handful during that man’s title reign that could’ve gone either way. Melendez pressured the champion throughout, stuffing many of Henderson’s takedown attempts as he endeavored to turn things into a straight-ahead brawl. Henderson matched the effort with his trademark hunt-and-peck offense, and in the end, the judges gave the champion the slimmest possible advantage (47-48, 48-47, 48-47).
Melendez likewise seemed on his way to victory in the Alvarez fight, after breaking the former Bellator MMA champ’s nose and orbital socket with a standing elbow in the first round. The swelling over Alvarez’s left eye was bad enough to make a doctor’s stoppage seem realistic, but he merely adjusted his strategy during the final 10 minutes, using timely takedowns and control against the fence to stifle Melendez’s offense.
Still, as the decision was announced, a lot of people thought Melendez would get the nod. One of those people was Melendez’s teammate, Nate Diaz, who in the immediate aftermath told MMA Fighting.com’s Ariel Helwani who he thought won:
But Melendez didn’t win, and now he likely faces the most important crossroads in his MMA career. In some ways, that seems like a cruel fate for a guy who has been so good for so long.
There’s no telling how we’d be thinking of Melendez if a couple of those judges’ scorecards had come back just slightly different. Truth is, he’s just a couple of rounds away from being 10-1 since 2009, winning the title from Henderson and being at the front of a sizable pack of contenders even today.
Instead, he finds himself on much more tenuous footing. He’s still No. 5 in the UFC’s official lightweight rankings, but it’ll take some work to keep the top half of the division—guys like Rafael dos Anjos, Donald Cerrone, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Pettis and even Alvarez—from leaving him behind.
(Ed. Note: Alvarez’s questionable victory at UFC 188 vaulted him all the way from No. 9 to No. 4 on the UFC charts, proving that—just like wins and losses—rankings seldom tell the whole story, either.)
Since there’s no way the UFC would ever let him skate off to Bellator, Melendez no doubt enjoys near limitless job security, but it’s still best he gets busy winning fights before we all start talking about him in terms of what might have been.
To that end, here’s some more positive news: Despite the recent losses, the lightweight division remains flush with good and interesting fights for him. It’s possible the weight class’ ultra competitive nature could work to his advantage moving forward.
Who could argue with Melendez vs. Al Iaquinta? Melendez vs. Myles Jury? Melendez vs. Tony Ferguson? Any one of those fights would get him right back in a high-profile situation with the chance to start rebuilding his reputation. For a fighter cruising into his mid-30s with a .250 UFC winning percentage, things could be a lot worse.
It’s also possible lightweight may not be his only option.
Back in 2012, MMAJunkie.com reported that Melendez was considering a cut to featherweight if Diaz managed to wrest the 155-pound title away from Henderson. As it turned out, Henderson trumped his teammate by emphatic unanimous decision, and Melendez didn’t have to investigate the idea any further.
But now? You gotta believe all possibilities are back on the table.
A more taxing weight cut is seldom the answer to a fighter’s problems, but it’s undeniably intriguing to think of Melendez joining the suddenly hot 145-pound ranks. If he has indeed fought his way out of contention at lightweight, he could make an immediate splash as a fresh opponent for Jose Aldo, Conor McGregor, Frankie Edgar or Chad Mendes.
So far, things have not gone as planned for Melendez in the Octagon, but the unkind hands of the judges have had more to do with that than many of us feel totally comfortable admitting. He’s still a high-level fighter with a lot to give the fans of this sport.
If anything, his recent troubles are a testament to how thin the line between the haves and the have-nots can be. Right now, he just needs a couple of lucky breaks.
And a few more 10-9 rounds.
Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com