It seemed so certain, back when Holly Holm was still crying in the Octagon while Ronda Rousey attempted to gather her senses on the canvas below.
Rousey, the biggest star in the UFC, a woman who reached an audience that never ordered pay-per-view events, an audience that never turned out for anything but the spectacle that accompanied Rousey wherever she went, had finally been dethroned, and she’d been kicked off her pedestal in violent fashion.
The only thing that made sense was an immediate rematch. Or at least a rematch whenever Rousey was able to get back in the cage. She needed some time away after that violent ending and the miniature fall from grace that came along with it. It just so happened that UFC 200 would be happening next July, and what fight could better serve as the main event of the biggest UFC card in history than Holm vs. Rousey 2, the fight that would almost surely break all pay-per-view records for the UFC?
UFC President Dana White agreed, saying in the days after that now-legendary UFC 193 knockout that he and UFC CEO Lorenzo Fertitta should have their promoter’s license taken away if they didn’t book the rematch. It was the only thing that made sense. Rousey had movies to film and she needed some time to recover, and Holm could use the time to bask in the glow of winning a world championship and being the creator of one of the most memorable things that has ever happened in the sport.
Holm wasn’t too keen on waiting, though, and she didn’t mind saying so. Her management didn’t keep silent, either. Holm wanted to fight before July, and it’s easy to understand why; Holm’s championship win thrust her into a new stratosphere of earning potential. She wanted to earn as much money as she can while staying busy (or at least busier than July), because nobody is guaranteed an extended run in a sport as brutal as this one.
So she and her management began to casually note that Miesha Tate would be a good opponent in the coming months. And though the UFC resisted at first—with White blustering as he usually does—it seems they’ve come around to Holm’s side of the table.
News broke on Monday that she’d signed a new fight deal with the promotion, and on The MMA Hour, she coyly said she expected the UFC to announce news about her next fight in the coming days.
We know it won’t be Rousey, for a whole bunch of reasons.
Which means it is likely that Team Holm has gotten its way, and that she’ll face Tate, perhaps on the still-mysterious UFC 197 card in March.
And it’s the wrong move.
I’m sure it’s not a great feeling for Holm to win the belt and then immediately sit on the sidelines just so the UFC can push the biggest fight possible for its biggest card ever. I sympathize with her need to get back in the cage, especially since the only reason she’s on the sidelines is because the UFC wants her to wait for a fighter she just beat.
Regardless of that sympathy, anything other than Holm waiting for Rousey and UFC 200 is still unthinkable.
The thing about promoting is that when you have a hot hand, you stick with it. Which is a fancy way of saying that, when you have a fight as big as the rematch between Holm and Rousey, you just don’t risk it for anything else. I’m positive Holm is confident in her ability to beat Tate, and she would no doubt be the favorite to win the fight.
But what happens if Tate beats Holm? It’s not an unthinkable scenario. If Tate goes in the Octagon and beats Holm, the rematch is out the window. You’re left with Rousey and Tate facing off a third time, and while there will always be some interest in that pairing, anticipation for it will be nowhere near the circus that will develop around the Holm/Rousey rematch.
I firmly believe that Holm and Rousey in an immediate rematch, especially at UFC 200, will break the UFC’s all-time pay-per-view record of 1.65 million set at UFC 100. There’s a chance it will blow right past it, selling perhaps even 2.5 million buys. And sure, if Holm beats Tate, the rematch is still right there and available.
But what if Tate wins? I’d expect Rousey vs. Tate 3 to sell 1 million buys due to Rousey’s popularity alone, but there’s a major difference between 1 million and even 1.7 million. The story of Rousey going for immediate revenge against the woman who dethroned her and humiliated her would be lost. Even if the two end up fighting again down the line—and they almost certainly would, given the UFC’s proclivity for booking anticipated fights—the shine just wouldn’t be the same.
I have no business interests in this fight. I don’t care if the UFC makes $500 million in 2016 or $5 billion. But in terms of anticipated mixed martial arts fights that can help spread this sport deeper into the mainstream and help it grow, there is no bigger fight available to the UFC in 2016 than Holm vs. Rousey 2.
That’s why doing anything but the rematch makes no sense. I understand that it is less than ideal for the new women’s bantamweight champion to sit on the sidelines until July. She has a sweet new contract, wants to stay active and wants to make money.
But even worse is the idea of risking such a huge fight by putting Holm into a risky situation before it can happen. At UFC 200, she has the chance to make life-altering money, not just for her and her husband, but for future generations of her family as well.
That’s worth waiting for, no matter now terrible it may seem in the meantime.
Jeremy Botter covers mixed martial arts for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter.
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