Considering all she’s accomplished in boxing and MMA, it’s strange to think that Holly Holm might take up the biggest challenge of her career Saturday against Valentina Shevchenko.
It’s strange because, for starters, when the name of Holm’s opponent for this weekend’s UFC on Fox 20 card was announced, the reaction of many fans was something along the lines of, “Uh…who?”
Even stranger, this booking could turn out to be a much bigger test for Holm outside the cage than in.
To fully grasp the gravity of the situation, consider where Holm was as recently as four months ago. She was riding high as women’s bantamweight champion, fresh off one of the greatest upsets in UFC history over Ronda Rousey and cruising into a high-profile title defense against the second biggest star the women’s 135-pound division had ever produced—Miesha Tate.
Fast-forward to today, and here Holm is abruptly reduced to taking on a relative unknown in a high-stakes but under-hyped bout on network television.
How did this happen?
What happened between then and now, of course, is that Holm lost her title to Tate at UFC 196 in a fight she seemed well on her way to winning until succumbing to a fifth-round submission. It wasn’t a career-ending blunder by any stretch, but it was the sort of thing that makes this matchup against Shevchenko a must-win.
It also makes it seem peculiar matchmakers would put Holm in this position—main evening this particular fight card with this particular fight.
Shevchenko comes in just 1-1 in the Octagon, owing to a split-decision victory over Sarah Kaufman during her UFC debut in December 2015 and a loss to current champ Amanda Nunes at UFC 196.
Those previous fights were a Fox Sports 1 prelim and a pay-per-view curtain-jerker, respectively. In other words, not the most high-profile bookings in the world. To see Shevchenko suddenly thrust onto the marquee of one of UFC’s usually big-deal network broadcasts is jarring.
And it fashions this bout into a pivotal one for Holm.
First off—as stated above—she absolutely has to win, lest she run the risk of turning into MMA’s answer to Buster Douglas. To solidify her spot as one of the elite fighter in the bantamweight class (which is becoming more and more chaotic by the day after Tate dropped the title to Nunes at UFC 200), Holm has to whip Shevchenko, and whip her convincingly.
To her credit, she seems to know that, too.
“If I don’t win this fight, then what?” Holm told ESPN.com’s Brian Campbell this week. “… I’m just focused on one fighter, and that’s Valentina. If I don’t get through her, there’s never another opportunity promised.”
The second task Holm is faced with will be a different one altogether, however.
With an unknown opponent and little support in the way of star-power from the UFC on Fox 20 undercard, she’ll have to sell this event to fans pretty much single-handedly.
That’s not something she’s ever done before during her UFC career.
Previous to this, she has only appeared in a supporting role—first in her win over Rousey at UFC 193 and then opposite Tate as the co-main event of a card headlined by Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz.
So this will be the first real test of Holm as an actual, bona fide UFC draw.
And perhaps not an easy one, as Bleacher Report’s Jonathan Snowden points out:
The co-main event fight at UFC on Fox 20 was originally supposed to feature Anthony Johnson’s light heavyweight title eliminator against Glover Teixeira, but that bout got postponed to UFC 202. Without it—and not that it would’ve helped a ton, anyway—the rest of the cupboard appears fairly bare.
Lightweight contender Gilbert Melendez will be on hand, taking on Edson Barboza in surefire slugfest. But Melendez is coming off a suspension following a drug test failure at UFC 188. Now just 1-3 in the Octagon, it feels like his star is on the wane.
Aside from that, the UFC on Fox 20 main card features up-and-coming but unheralded heavyweight prospect Francis Ngannou taking on debuting fighter Bojan Mihajlovic and Felice Herrig vs. Kailin Curran in a strawweight fight.
That leaves Holm nearly all alone in bringing any name-brand recognition.
Keep in mind, the fight company is still regrouping after a nearly week-long celebration of UFC 200. From July 6-13, the UFC put on four fight cards and fired a lot of promotional bullets. Now, it’s simply going to take some time to reload.
Though it’s nobody’s fault, the net effect of staging all those fights at once to support UFC 200 is that it leaves Holm vs. Shevchenko uncharacteristically exposed.
Did Holm’s knockout of Rousey make her a significant draw with fans? Will they tune in to see if she can right the ship after that loss to Tate? Without Rousey, could anyone at 135 pounds successfully quarterback a UFC on Fox event and make it a success, even as the weight class devolves into bedlam around them?
At the moment, these are all questions that have no answers.
But as we continue to await Rousey’s return, the women’s bantamweight division feels as though it desperately needs a stabilizing force. For Holm, a victory over Shevchenko could be the first sign that things are finally starting to slink back toward normal. Meanwhile, a loss would only mean further disorder.
Luckily for Holm, this seems to be a pretty good matchup of styles for her.
Against Shevchenko, at least she likely won’t have to worry much about takedowns or a submission game anything like Tate’s.
The 28-year-old native of Kyrgyzstan is a decorated kickboxer, and, while she flashed some ground skills early in her career, Shevchenko hasn’t tapped anybody out since 2006. Conventional wisdom says this will largely be a stand-up affair, and that figures to favor Holm.
Unfortunately, Bleacher Report’s Patrick Wyman can’t say for sure it’s going to be a crowd-pleaser:
This could be a slow fight as Holm moves and moves through the space of the cage, occasionally throwing a kick or two, while Shevchenko stares at her waiting for an opportunity to counter. It could also turn into a technical and quick-paced match between two exceptional strikers as Holm‘s consistent activity draws Shevchenko into something more like a firefight.
With five rounds to operate, we’ll probably see a bit of both. The first round in particular could be a snoozefest, but as the fight wears on and both combatants get their timing and range, business will probably pick up.
Holm is going off as nearly a 3-to-1 favorite, according to Odds Shark. Smart money says she probably gets through Shevchenko here and rekindles her standing in a women’s bantamweight division that feels like a wide-open race.
Can she additionally establish herself as one of the weight class’ go-to draws?
We shall see.
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