UFC 182 is just days away, and the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship is up for grabs in one of the most heated matchups in UFC history.
Jon Jones defends the championship gold against No. 2-ranked contender Daniel Cormier.
According to Odds Shark, Jones is a 25-52 favorite to win. His status as the favorite is well deserved.
Cormier is an Olympic-caliber wrestler who has defeated each and every one of his 15 opponents in his professional MMA career. He won the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix with wins over Jeff Monson, Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva and Josh Barnett.
In the UFC, he has dispatched Frank Mir, Roy Nelson and Dan Henderson.
He has a list of talented names on his record, and no one has come close to beating him. But Jones is a different animal.
The reigning champion has a record of 20-1. His lone loss was a controversial disqualification loss to Matt Hamill due to illegal elbows. The fight was stopped, however, because of an injury that was caused during a takedown attempt. It was a fight Jones should have been awarded the victory in.
When Jones won and defended his title in 2011, it was one of the most impressive streaks in MMA history. He battered Ryan Bader, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Lyoto Machida in a single calendar year. All four fights were finished.
Since that day, he has added Rashad Evans, Vitor Belfort, Chael Sonnen, Alexander Gustafsson and Glover Teixeira to his list of defeated contenders. He is the greatest 205-pound fighter of all time.
His status as a favorite this weekend at UFC 182 is not just due to his past as a dominant champion. It is also a stylistic matchup that favors the champion.
Cormier has proven his wrestling skills have translated into the cage, but in order to use them, he has to get in close. That is where he will have the most trouble. One of Jones’ greatest attributes as a fighter is his ability to use his length. He keeps his opponents on the outside.
According to Fightnomics author Reed Kuhn (h/t UFC.com’s Thomas Gerbasi), the reach differential at UFC 182 will be the third-biggest in UFC history:
Jones is also the more developed mixed martial artist. At 35 years old, Cormier still has a lot of ground to make up. He can hide a lot of his holes with his elite-level skills as a wrestler, but against Jones the talent gap may be more evident.
Cormier has power in his hands and good striking basics, but hitting Jones from a foot away will prove to be difficult.
Cormier‘s path to victory is narrow.
He has to wrestle. That is it. Cormier has to cut off the cage, force Jones into a phone booth and beat him up. The prospect of accomplishing that task on Saturday is why he is an underdog.
Jones has many more outs, and as the fight draws on, the scales tilt even further in his favor.
Jones has beaten a wide array of styles. This is without question the best wrestler he has ever fought inside the cage, but that is only one aspect of MMA. Cormier has never seen a fighter like Jones. Ever. Jones is ever-developing his skill set, and each time we see him inside the cage, he brings out a new tool.
It is surprising that Jones is not a bigger favorite for this championship grudge match.
Why should Jones be favored?
He has established himself as the greatest light heavyweight of all time and has a decided advantage in every aspect of this fight other than wrestling. Even with the disadvantage in that one aspect, it will be hard for the challenger to exploit it from a foot away as he establishes range inside the Octagon.
This should be a fantastic fight, but all signs point to Jones as the one who gets his hand raised high.
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