Perhaps the biggest and best compliment we can pay Lyoto Machida vs. Luke Rockhold is that it feels completely necessary.
In an MMA world now defined by dilution and excess, this is one we must absolutely have. When the two middleweights meet on Saturday in the main event of UFC on Fox 15, theirs will be among the most anticipated non-title fights of the year so far.
It will be steeped in meaningful stakes and will play out on the mainstream stage provided by network television.
Oh yeah, and it also stands to be a whole lot of fun.
In one corner, you’ll have Machida, the 36-year-old former UFC light heavyweight champion. He’s known for his elusiveness—and that includes his ability to escape the grasp of Father Time thus far. Dropping to 185 pounds near the end of 2013 produced a rebirth for him, but last summer he lost to champion Chris Weidman after a whale of a fight.
Even after getting off the schneid with a win over CB Dollaway a few months ago, he needs this. A victory here and Machida turns away arguably the stiffest test from the next generation of middleweight contenders. If he looks good doing it, if he can prove age really ain’t nothing but a number, he’ll force the UFC to consider setting him up with a second shot at the title.
That last bit, of course, will have to wait for the outcome of Weidman’s title defense against Vitor Belfort at UFC 189. If Belfort should somehow unseat Weidman as champion, Machida’s prospects only improve. He would have a fresh matchup waiting for him against Belfort.
If he loses, well, it will no doubt be seen as a sign that Machida has stuck around too long. He won’t fade to black immediately, but it certainly casts the end-game stages of his career in somewhat starker light. It’d be hard for him to put it back together to make another run at the gold in the time he has left.
Rockhold’s path to a championship opportunity is even more direct. Basically, if he wins, he’s in.
The American Kickboxing Academy product ran roughshod over the competition during his four years in Strikeforce, going 9-0 and capturing the organization’s 185-pound title from Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza in September 2011. He came over with the rest of the spoils when the UFC absorbed Strikeforce in early 2013 but lost his debut by dramatic head-kick knockout to Belfort.
That defeat came with an asterisk the size of Belfort’s bulging deltoids, however. The Phenom fought while legally gassed up on testosterone replacement therapy. Nine months later, the controversial treatment was banned from competition.
How Rockhold might have fared against the normal, natural version of Belfort, we might never know.
What we do know is that he put the loss behind him with three straight wins, albeit against decidedly middle-of-the-pack competition. Now he stands on the verge of his first truly elite test. If he beats Machida, there won’t be much else left to do but stamp his passport to a title shot.
Rockhold is going off as the slight favorite, according to Odds Shark, but—like the rest of us—in this case the oddsmakers are just guessing.
Nobody is certain what’s going to happen. MMA is among the cruelest sports, after all. Machida could show up looking like he’s gotten old overnight. Rockhold might prove to be smoke and mirrors, not in the same league with a guy who has been in and around the top for nearly a decade.
Rockhold will enjoy height and reach advantages, and he’s looked mobile and dangerous in his appearances. Machida is one of the sport’s most notoriously difficult riddles, but occasionally he comes out flat. His patient tactics can frustrate his foes, but sometimes they frustrate fans too. When the urgency doesn‘t seem to be there, he’s been known to let a fight or two slip away.
But it’s also been nearly three years since a Rockhold fight went longer than six minutes, and the Brazilian specializes in marathons. If Machida can fluster Rockhold with his awkward counterpunching style, if he can drag him into deep water, it could be anybody’s fight to win.
Honestly, it almost doesn’t matter.
Either way, we’re probably going to get to see a heck of a scrap.
Either way, we’ll all be smarter come Sunday.
Either way, this is the sort of fight that deserves every bit of praise it gets.
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