The boxing showdown between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Conor McGregor is almost upon us, with the anticipation reaching a boiling point as everyone tries to predict whether the biggest star in boxing or the biggest name in mixed martial arts will emerge triumphant on Saturday.
Mayweather remains the betting favorite, though the margin isn’t as steep as one might expect considering McGregor has never fought in a professional boxing match. OddsShark shows bookmakers have Mayweather at -450 (bet $450 to win $100) after closing his last fight against Andre Berto at -3000, per the website.
It speaks to McGregor’s popularity in UFC and the job he and Mayweather have done convincing bettors this will be more than an exhibition. He’s been a knockout artist in mixed martial arts, with 18 of his 21 career victories coming via knockout or TKO.
Here are some round-by-round predictions of what to expect from the fight, along with some analysis.
Round-By-Round Predictions
Round 1: Mayweather 10, McGregor 9
Round 2: Mayweather 10, McGregor 9
Round 3: Mayweather 10, McGregor 9
Round 4: Mayweather 10, McGregor 8
Round 5: Mayweather 10, McGregor 9
Round 6: McGregor 10, Mayweather 9
Round 7: Mayweather 10, McGregor 9
Round 8: Mayweather 10, McGregor 9
Round 9: Mayweather 10, McGregor 9
Round 10: Mayweather 10, McGregor 8
Round 11: Mayweather 10, McGregor 9
Round 12: Mayweather 10, McGregor 9
Final Scorecard: Mayweather 119, McGregor 107
The first three rounds will tell the viewing audience all it needs to know about how real McGregor’s chances are in this boxing match.
To say McGregor’s preparations for this fight have been under heavy scrutiny would be an understatement. Here’s side-by-side footage of the UFC lightweight champion and Mayweather that shows the apparent gulf in boxing skill between the two, via BlackSportsOnline:
Mayweather is showing speed with his punches and moving ability. McGregor looks like he walked into a room with a bag and decided he wanted to give boxing a shot.
In addition to what the videos seem to show, former boxer Paulie Malignaggi recently went on a Twitter rant about his sparring sessions with McGregor, suggesting he beat up McGregor 24 hours after getting off a flight. This came after images were released seeming to show the UFC star knocking him around.
Because no one seems to know what’s going on with McGregor’s boxing skills—or in Malignaggi’s case, seemingly trying to set up his own bout with McGregor—Mayweather could end this fight quickly.
The biggest thing working in McGregor’s favor, as far as avoiding the knockout goes, is Mayweather has not displayed much power late in his career. The 40-year-old has one knockout in his past 10 fights, dating back to 2009.
Unfortunately for McGregor, Mayweather makes up for his lack of knockout power by not getting hit. Lyle Fitzsimmons of CBSSports.com broke down some career numbers for Mayweather in September 2015, showing Manny Pacquiao was only able to connect on 19 percent of the punches he threw during his meeting with Money.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see this fight end in a unanimous decision for Mayweather, but McGregor is such an aggressive striker he could have one round wherein he connects on two or three big shots to convince the judges he did enough to win.
Match length also belongs high on the list of reasons this fight will be so different to anything McGregor is accustomed to. He’s used to training for UFC fights, which go a maximum of 25 minutes over five rounds. However, he’s only gone the distance twice in 24 career MMA bouts.
Boxing is paced differently, with 12 three-minute rounds. McGregor is also asking a lot of his body because even though he’s fought at 155 pounds in the UFC, his first seven fights with the promotion were in the 145-pound featherweight division.
Nothing about this fight suggests McGregor can win. He’s going against the worst kind of opponent because Mayweather doesn’t change his style and won’t get overaggressive to attempt for a flashy knockout.
All Mayweather cares about is that zero in the loss column next to his name. He will keep that record intact against McGregor on Saturday.
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