Conor McGregor couldn’t have picked a tougher opponent for his first boxing match. Rather than line up a bona fide tomato can, like most any aspiring pugilist would, he went straight for the top, coaxing 40-year-old Floyd Mayweather Jr. out of retirement and into the ring.
A bold stroke, to be sure, but one that will earn McGregor a $100 million payday, win or lose.
At this point, there’s little doubt that Mayweather has the upper hand. As of August 23, the undefeated (49-0) right-hander was a -400 favorite against McGregor, a former UFC star who’s trading in eight corners for four.
Whatever you think the overall result of Saturday’s bout at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas will be, here’s a look at some juicier prop bets to consider.
How Will the Fight End?
According to Bovada, the odds favor Mayweather taking down McGregor by knockout or technical knockout (-125). But Mayweather, who’s racked up 26 KOs in his pro career, hasn’t ended a fight early since September 2011, when he knocked out Victor Ortiz, and has just two knockouts of any kind in nearly a dozen years.
It might be wise, then, to consider taking Mayweather by decision. At present, the oddsmakers have that outcome at +250—a far better value than Mayweather by KO.
Then again, between McGregor‘s inexperience and all the trash talk he’s flung Floyd’s way, it’s not out of the question that Mayweather makes quick work of his MMA-trained antagonist.
How Many Rounds Will the Fight Last?
If you’re inclined to believe that Mayweather will knock McGregor out, there are some over-under bets on the number of rounds to consider.
There’s plenty of money to be made if you think the bout won’t last past the third round. Betting on the fight to last fewer than 2.5 rounds will get you +350 odds. Slice that down to under two rounds, and you’re looking at a +375 payout.
The odds really ramp up below that. If you have the fight ending before the midpoint of the second round, you’ll be staring down odds of +550. And if you’re bold enough to believe either combatant can close out the other in the first round, you’ll get +600 odds.
Keep in mind, Mayweather has knocked out nine opponents within the first two rounds in his career, but he hasn’t made such quick work of a foe since he TKO’d Angel Manfredy in December 1998.
What Will There Be More of?
Those who love America’s two oldest sporting pastimes (i.e. boxing and baseball) will find a handful of prop bets to satisfy two passions at once.
You’ll get even odds if you think San Francisco Giants ace Madison Bumgarner will strike out more Arizona Diamondbacks than there are rounds in Saturday’s fight. The former World Series MVP has struck out 46 batters in 51.1 innings since returning to the Giants’ rotation in mid-July and will be facing a D-Backs squad that’s tallied the fifth-most strikeouts in all of Major League Baseball.
Texas Rangers fans will be pulling for Cole Hamels to fan his fair share of Oakland A’s up in the East Bay. If Hamels finishes with more K’s than rounds in the Mayweather-McGregor fight, those who bet on him will get a +180 payout. While the A’s, with the third-most strikeouts in the Majors, look ripe for picking in this wager, Hamels’ declining K rate (5.6 per nine innings) means this one will be more than a no-brainer.
As for former A’s pitcher Sonny Gray, he’ll be on a similar docket, though his odds (+160) aren’t quite as attractive. For one, his strikeout rate has dropped from 8.7 per nine innings in Oakland to 6.7 per nine innings over his four starts with the New York Yankees. It may not help his cause that his opponent, Seattle Mariners, has accounted for the 12th-fewest strikeouts in baseball.
Who Will Walk Out With Floyd Mayweather?
Over the years, Mayweather has become known for more than just his money and his fists. His pre-fight walkouts to the ring have become spectacles in and of themselves. Lil Wayne, 50 Cent and Justin Bieber are among the more notable names who’ve joined Mayweather in his jaunt.
The oddsmakers at Bovada aren’t proposing whether Weezy will be there at all, but rather whether he’ll be wearing a shirt (-220) or walking out shirtless (+155).
As of August 21, Bovada had Nate Diaz, one of McGregor‘s chief UFC rivals, at +115 to join Mayweather on his jaunt and -160 to not do so. That bet seems to have disappeared, perhaps because Jason Lee, a member of Money’s entourage, told TMZ Sports back in late July that it could happen.
When it comes to the overall number of people joining each walkout, Mayweather is the heavy favorite (-230), though McGregor (+160), as a boxing newcomer, could be a wild card in this regard.
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