It’s easy to get lost in promotional bluster when it comes to a Conor McGregor fight. Anything from a life-changing book-on-DVD to controversial rib fractures to testicles on the forehead of an opponent may come up along the way, and it’s all interesting in its own way.
When he meets Chad Mendes in the UFC 189 main event on Saturday night, though, that path will be walked. The promotion will be done. “The McGregor Show,” as the Irishman has so humbly titled his debut as a pay-per-view headliner, will be on.
It will be time to put up or shut up, at least until the next opponent comes along and the promotion for that bout starts.
Given his ability to polarize the MMA collectivity with his salesmanship, there seems to be an oversimplified consideration of McGregor’s chances against Mendes: On the feet he can win, but he hasn’t proved he can wrestle, and that’s where he’ll lose.
This is a theory largely born out of those who don’t like the brash featherweight’s antics, and it’s further buoyed by the fact that his supporters have almost nothing concrete to support a retort. McGregor has made his UFC bones by blasting strikers unconscious in spectacular fashion, and he has never faced anyone with the wrestling chops of Mendes.
On Saturday, it goes without saying, that’s going to change. Mendes, even on short notice, cuts a formidable figure. In fact, no man has ever hit the scales at 145 pounds and managed to best the Team Alpha Male product other than of current champion Jose Aldo, who did it twice.
Beyond Aldo, a case can be made for Mendes as the best featherweight in the world. UFC 189 will see McGregor look to steal that spot by overcoming Mendes’ elite wrestling and a striking game that has evolved into one of the best in the weight class as well.
But it’s that wrestling that remains the focus. Mendes, even as the best striker he’s ever been, is not better at plying that trade than McGregor. Everyone knows that his success will come on takedowns and that takedowns will be available because there’s no proof McGregor can fend them off.
And yet what if there’s no proof needed? What if there is a path to victory for McGregor that involves being taken down multiple times by Mendes and having it proved largely irrelevant?
The “wrestling as McGregor’s kryptonite” theory doesn’t really account for the reality that taking a man down and holding him down are not the same thing. Countless fighters—most of them excellent strikers, like McGregor—have succeeded with marginal takedown defense. They’re just very good at getting up.
Anderson Silva was never much at defending takedowns, preferring to use his guard defensively until he could make space and escape or score a submission. He won 16 straight UFC fights with that strategy, and he was still improving his takedown defense when he was last seen at age 39.
Carlos Condit, an interim champion himself at one point, has often had wrestlers put him on his back. His tricky guard leads to frequent sweeps or overbalancing opponents enough to get up.
Nick and Nate Diaz, both UFC title contenders at their respective peaks, are often taken down only to scramble away thanks to a whizzer grabbed on the way down. That, or they’ll work guard long enough to get back up and start wailing on opponents with punching combinations that seem to go on for days.
Even Jose Aldo, initially to be McGregor’s foil on Saturday, has punctuated the more recent days of his title reign by occasionally conceding a takedown before slipping away like a wet fish bouncing on a dock.
The fact is that being taken down won’t be the end of McGregor against Mendes. To say otherwise is to border on belligerent ignorance to the sport itself. Not all strikers defend takedowns outright; many simply get up when they’re taken down.
McGregor himself has done as much. Though his wrestling is not on the level of Mendes, Dennis Siver is underrated in the field because his highlights all involve throwing spinning kicks, and he took McGregor down when they fought.
In response, McGregor popped his hips out and walked on his hands until he was against the cage, then he forced himself upright and made his escape. Try as he might, Siver could do nothing. He watched his man walk out of his grasp and start trouncing him.
It’s a small sample size, but it aids in proving a point: Conor McGregor may not need to defend the takedowns of Chad Mendes. When one is as big, strong, athletic and focused as McGregor is, it becomes hard to imagine anyone holding him down for more than a few minutes—much less 25 minutes. It may be more about what he does with the position once he’s taken down than about the fact that the takedown happens in the first place.
To take your man down is far different than to keep your man down. Mendes will need to do both, and win the stand-up battle as well, to be successful at UFC 189. If he can’t, the risk he ends up like all the McGregor foes who came before him is far higher than detractors care to admit.
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