The women’s bantamweight title picture has become a steady source of surprises over the last 12 months, and Wednesday was no different. The UFC threw fans yet another curveball with the announcement that Miesha Tate would face Amanda Nunes at UFC 200.
No, she would not wait for Ronda Rousey‘s potential return later this year. No, Holly Holm would not have the opportunity to retake her title. It’s a decision that has drawn a fair bit of criticism and a number of questions.
Many are asking why the decision was made, what it means, how the fight will pan out and what comes next. Only two brave souls would answer those questions: Bleacher Report’s crack team of Patrick Wyman and Steven Rondina.
So what do you need to know about this fight? Why is it happening, and what does it mean for the rest of the division? Read on and find out!
Steven: Business is picking up in the women’s bantamweight division…I guess. The UFC gave fans a surprise on Wednesday by announcing that Miesha Tate, rather than waiting for a trilogy with Ronda Rousey, would put her women’s bantamweight title on the line at UFC 200 against Amanda Nunes.
There’s a lot to unpack in that news from both a competitive and promotional perspective, so let’s start off right from the top. Why, Patrick, do you think the UFC put this fight together? The UFC was clearly upset that their plans for a Holly Holm vs. Ronda Rousey 2 fell apart at UFC 196, but there is plenty of money to be made in a Miesha Tate vs. Ronda Rousey 3…so what is the logic behind this move?
Patrick: Well, there are a few ways of looking at this move.
First, it clearly means that Rousey isn’t going to be ready to go for a while, whether that’s because she has other plans and obligations or because she doesn’t yet feel prepared to get back in the cage.
Second, it shows that the UFC is still looking to make UFC 200 a special kind of event. Why? Because Miesha Tate appeals to a different demographic than Conor McGregor, and you can place her on different mainstream media platforms — Good Morning America, for example, as opposed to Jimmy Kimmel Live! — to promote the card beforehand.
They’re trying to saturate the card across as many different audiences as possible.
Finally, this is also about Tate. She just signed a new contract that presumably includes pay-per-view points, and she’ll get a massive payday from appearing on what’s sure to be one of the biggest cards of the year.
Despite those potential payoffs, it does feel like a risky play on the surface. Looking deeper at the particulars of the matchup, though, am I crazy for thinking Nunes is a stylistically favorable opponent for Tate? That would make this a much less surprising move.
Steven: I don’t think you’re mistaken at all.
We have a fairly large sample size when it comes to Tate, and while she’s had few dominant performances of the years, we know that she’s incredibly difficult to put away and gets better as time goes on. That has made for some uncomfortably competitive fights against less-than-elite competition over the years, but she manages to overcome early deficits far more often than not.
Nunes is in the opposite boat. She has faced high-level competition in every fight all the way back to the Brazilian independent circuit and, traditionally, mauls her foes with ground and pound en route to an early stoppage. After that first horn, however, things get pretty dicey.
She bullied Alexis Davis in the first round of their Strikeforce fight back in 2011 but wilted in the second and got knocked out. Her 2014 bout with Cat Zingano? Same thing. Even her last fight, a win over Valentina Shevchenko, saw her empty her gas tank halfway through the second and struggle to keep up in the third.
Nunes is one of the best in the division in the early stages of the fight, but Tate proved herself to be a five-round talent at UFC 196. The way I see this fight going is Tate soaking up some punishment early but enduring en route to handy decision win.
Patrick: It almost feels too obvious to predict this, but if Tate can weather the early storm, she should handle Nunes late. The Brazilian has never been able to fight effectively for three rounds, much less five, and Tate is durable, experienced and has great cardio.
We shouldn’t undersell Nunes, whose technical skill on the feet has finally caught up with her exceptional physical gifts. In her last several fights, she has shown crisp footwork, great instincts on the counter and increasingly dangerous combination striking.There’s no way that Tate can compete in a pure striking matchup, and Nunes has outstanding takedown defense.
Still, all of that falls apart after six or seven minutes, when Nunes’ volume drops off, her takedown defense disappears and she can no longer maintain her preferred distance.
In that sense, this is a tailor-made matchup for Tate to either win the last three rounds or choke Nunes into submission when she starts to tire. As we saw against Holm, Tate needs only the tiniest of openings to find the finish. It’s one of her defining characteristics.
Given that scenario, it makes perfect sense for Tate to take this fight. She gets a huge payday on a McGregor pay-per-view, the exposure and PR push that come from fighting on one of the biggest cards of the year and she will still be set up to face Rousey when and if the former champion chooses to return.
Assuming that Tate can get through Nunes, as both you and I do, how do you see a future Rousey-Tate III playing out?
Steven: The Rousey vs. Tate rivalry is easily one of the greatest in MMA history due to the simple fact that they genuinely don’t like one another. Because of that, a trilogy match would remove much of the doubt surrounding a potential Rousey return. Will Rousey be motivated? Will her training be impacted by her work in Hollywood? Is she “MENTALLY BROKEN” after losing to Holm?
Yes, no and definitely not. Rousey, I’d bet, will put every fiber of her existence into one-upping Tate one last time on the biggest stage possible.
Would Rousey be able to retake the title, though? That’s a tough call.
Despite her overall lack of fight-finishing skills, Tate has shown serious improvements to her grappling and striking. While Rousey will always be capable of ending a fight on the spot, Tate isn’t as likely to jump into trouble the way she did in their first two matches. If the two of them do fight for a third time, I’d actually expect the fight to go all the way to a decision.
As for who would take it, I don’t know. I certainly hope we get to find out before the year is out.
Patrick: As strange as it might sound given the outcomes of their first two meetings, I would actually favor Tate at this point. While the result of Rousey’s fight with Holm was certainly shocking, what was more surprising was the depth of what it revealed about her shortcomings and weaknesses.
Holm’s approach of sticking and moving while staying away from the fence wasn’t exactly magical rocket science, and Rousey threw herself face-first onto punches and had no real idea of how to cut off the cage.
That’s not to say that Tate can replicate that specific game plan, but that Tate is a well-coached fighter surrounded by smart people. There’s no reason she can’t wear down and frustrate Rousey as Holm did by utilizing a different set of tools.
Regardless, however, Rousey-Tate III is the pot of gold at the end of this particular rainbow. Nunes is intriguing and serves a purpose here, but she’s not the final destination.
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