If Miesha Tate ever wants to get another grudge match with longtime rival Ronda Rousey, she needs to start stringing together impressive victories.
A big win over Sara McMann at UFC 183 would be a start.
The former Strikeforce champion has made her name from two fights with the current UFC titleholder, Rousey. As the only fighter to take Rousey to a third round, Tate stands out as one of the most recognizable names in the women’s bantamweight division.
Since losing to Rousey, she’s added two wins to her record, but neither was altogether impressive. First, she edged out Liz Carmouche, who is now 1-3 in her last four fights. Tate then coasted to a unanimous-decision win over UFC newcomer Rin Nakai.
There’s nothing wrong with those wins, but they aren’t necessarily big enough to generate buzz for a third match with the champion.
Enter Sara McMann. The 34-year-old former Olympian would also like a shot at redemption against Rousey. Her bid for the title was stopped at just 1:06 into the first round. A hard knee to the body made her the first woman to lose to Rowdy by something other than an armbar.
But McMann hasn’t exactly made an impact since losing either. Her first fight back was a split-decision victory over Lauren Murphy.
Here’s a look at the tale of the tape, latest odds and buzz surrounding this fight along with a prediction as to which contender will emerge with some serious momentum toward a title fight.
Odds via Odds Shark as of Jan. 29, 2015 at 10:30 p.m. ET
What They’re Saying
Miesha Tate might be best known for her feud with the woman holding the belt, but that doesn’t mean she’s kept quiet leading up to this bout.
The creation of this matchup started back when Tate got her win over Nakai. McMann took to Twitter to present perhaps the most well-mannered callout in the history of MMA:
Tate then responded in the most respectful way possible:
However, as the actual bout gets closer, Tate hasn’t been as mild-mannered in declaring her intentions for McMann in the Octagon. “OK, you called me out,” Tate said per Steven Morocco of MMAJunkie. “I’m going to show you what that entails. It motivates me to think I’m going to stop her in her tracks and I’m going to continue to move forward.”
Since the fight opened, the odds have swung in McMann‘s favor, according to Odds Shark. This is likely attributed to McMann‘s extensive wrestling background. Not only does she have a silver medal from the 2004 Olympics to her name, but she’s also coming off a fight in which she scored five takedowns against Lauren Murphy, according to FightMetric.
However, Tate doesn’t feel like she should be written off because of that. Tate is looking to push McMann to determine whether the former Olympian is a well-rounded mixed martial artist, via Morocco:
I still feel like she’s timid on the feet. Sometimes you see her get hit, and you can tell that immediately she has to revert to wrestling. I think I’m a little more willing to give a punch and take a punch. I don’t know how it’s going to translate, who’s going to be better in the MMA wrestling. I think that’s probably the exciting part of it: We’re going to have to go out there and see what’s going to happen.
Even McMann would agree with Tate to some extent. She does know wrestling and finds it to be her comfort zone. As she told Duane Finley of UFC.com, at a certain point, instinct is a tough thing to control:
I know that regardless of any game plan that I have, it is unbelievably difficult for me to get close to somebody and not take them down. It really is so difficult for me, but I’ve been working on it. I’ve learned to be a bit more selective and take it when the moment is right and not just because I can. I think Miesha is going to try to wrestle me because that’s what she’s good at. She came out and tried to take Cat Zingano down right away and Cat is a good wrestler. I hope she comes out shooting because it’s something I’ve always been good at handling.
Who winds up being better at MMA wrestling is going to be a deciding factor in this matchup. Whereas most fighters would tend to avoid the department against a former Olympian, Tate does seem to be embracing the challenge.
Prediction
Looking at what both fighters have done lately, it’s hard to look at this bout objectively and not think that McMann is going to control the fight. Styles make fights, and it doesn’t get much worse stylistically for Tate.
According to FightMetric, Tate has been taken down six, five and three times in her last three bouts going back to the loss to Rousey. That’s 14 times in three fights. Conversely, McMann has 11 takedowns in her last three wins, not including the subminute loss to Rousey.
That means that not only is Tate’s takedown defense a weakness, but it’s been exposed by lower-caliber grapplers than McMann.
McMann might not have the power to finish it, but she should definitely have enough to score a unanimous decision.
McMann by unanimous decision.
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