With all due respect to CM Punk and Mickey Gall, UFC 203 is all about Stipe Miocic and Alistair Overeem.
Saturday night will see Miocic try to defend his UFC heavyweight title against Overeem, who is fighting in his first title bout since joining the UFC nearly five years ago.
Miocic is a slight favorite going into this fight, according to Odds Shark, but Overeem is one of the most accomplished mixed martial arts fighters the UFC has ever had with an outstanding professional record of 41 wins to just 14 losses.
Unlike the CM Punk vs. Gall matchup, we know a lot about Miocic and Overeem, which is what makes this bout so enticing.
It’s hard to imagine this fight going five rounds due to the sheer power of both strikers, but let’s take a look at each fighter before we get into any fight predictions.
While both fighters are identical in every physical category except age, the advantage may come by way of Miocic‘s activity and strike rate. He lands 4.93 strikes a minute compared to Overeem’s 3.81.
When Miocic took Fabricio Werdum‘s title via first-round knockout, his activity and movement were crucial in avoiding Werdum’s shots.
It’s hard to believe that this is Overeem’s first title shot in the UFC when you consider that he’s defeated six former UFC champions during his career. Let’s take a look at some of the fighters he’s gone up against and defeated inside the Octagon:
- Andrei Arlovski
- Junior Dos Santos
- Roy Nelson
- Stefan Struve
- Frank Mir
- Brock Lesnar
During his days in Strikeforce, Overeem actually went up against and defeated former UFC heavyweight champ Werdum by decision back in 2011.
Werdum, who is also fighting on Saturday night against Travis Browne, offered his insight into the Miocic vs. Overeem bout, per MMAFighting.com:
Is Werdum the next Mystic Mac of the UFC? No, but he has a point. Miocic is a great counterpuncher, as Werdum knows by now.
But the reality is that while Miocic is the favorite, this fight is a toss-up.
And for MMAjunkie’s Ben Fowlkes (via Co-Main Event‘s Chad Dundas), it was literally up to a coin flip (warning: NSFW language):
Prediction
This fight is not going the distance.
The first couple of minutes of Round 1 will be boring, to say the least, as each fighter tries to get a feel for his opponent. Don’t be surprised to see Overeem push the pace and have ring control for the majority of the first while scoring a few kicks to the body as Miocic attempts to step forward with a jab.
The second round is when Miocic finds his rhythm and begins to punish Overeem’s aggressiveness. I find it unlikely that much—if any—of the fight will take place on the ground, as Miocic is a much better fighter on his feet and doesn’t want to mess with Overeem, who has 19 submission finishes in his career.
It’s a shame that it took so long for Overeem to get a title fight because this may be one of the last chances—if not the last chance—he has at a championship.
Unfortunately, he runs into a fighter on a hot streak with the type of knockout power to take out anyone in the heavyweight division.
Miocic will connect with Overeem’s chin in the third round as he defends his belt in front of his hometown of Cleveland, finishing the fight by TKO.
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