Lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos (25-7; 14-5 UFC) opens the International Fight Week festivities on July 7 by defending his title against well-traveled veteran Eddie Alvarez (27-4; 2-1 UFC).
Alvarez came to the UFC with high expectations as the Bellator lightweight champion. He had run up a 9-1 record in his last 10 fights while avenging that sole loss to Michael Chandler. With good reason, Alvarez was considered one of the best lightweights in the world.
A wide decision loss to Donald Cerrone in his UFC debut cooled the expectations a bit, but razor-thin wins over Gilbert Melendez and Anthony Pettis have given Alvarez the semblance of a two-fight winning streak. With Khabib Nurmagomedov out of action during Ramadan and Tony Ferguson on the shelf with an injury, Alvarez was the only and best option for Dos Anjos to defend his belt.
Dos Anjos went on a tear after a one-sided decision loss to Nurmagomedov in April 2014. He knocked out former champion Benson Henderson in just two minutes and 31 seconds, and then he dismantled Nate Diaz. He was still a substantial underdog to Anthony Pettis in March 2015, and his dominant win over “Showtime” came as something of a surprise.
In hindsight, however, it represented the culmination of Dos Anjos’ improvements into one of the most dangerous fighters in the division. A 66-second knockout win over Cerrone last December did nothing to change that impression.
This title fight is effectively a lifetime achievement award for Alvarez, who has been one of the best on the planet for the last decade. For Dos Anjos, it’s a chance to stay busy against a challenging opponent while warming up for Ferguson or Nurmagomedov.
Let’s explore each fighter in depth and then take a look at how they match up.
Rafael dos Anjos
Record: 25-7; 5 KO, 8 SUB, 12 DEC
Height: 5’9″
Reach: 71″
Dos Anjos is a born-and-bred pressure fighter. The southpaw’s entire game is based on forcing his opponent to the fence and then melding his striking, wrestling and grappling into a seamless and lethal whole.
Aggression is Dos Anjos’ bread and butter. He’s fast but not an off-the-charts athlete; he’s powerful but not a devastating puncher; he’s a skilled striker and wrestler but isn’t elite in either fact. It’s aggressive forward movement and the clever use of the fence that makes him the best fighter in the division.
Few fighters in MMA are more skilled in the art of pressure than Dos Anjos. He uses forward and lateral movement, strikes to herd his opponent from side to side and hard counters in the pocket when his opponent tries to stand his ground in the face of his aggression. The combination of these things makes it nearly impossible to keep the fight in open space and away from the fence.
Effective pressure isn’t just about moving forward, but also about cutting off the opponent’s escape routes: Ronda Rousey, for example, discovered this to her detriment when she tried to bull-rush Holly Holm last November.
Dos Anjos is especially fond of using his left kick and right hook to cut off those angles. As he moves forward, the opponent tries to move laterally to avoid the fence. When he does, Dos Anjos can counter that sidestep with an arcing kick or hook.
Either way he attempts to move, Dos Anjos has an answer. This also simplifies Dos Anjos’ own pressure footwork, because it means he only needs to worry about his opponent moving laterally in one direction. Against Pettis, for example, the constant threat of the left kick consistently forced Pettis to move toward Dos Anjos’ right side, and this made him increasingly predictable as the fight wore on.
When his opponent’s back hits the fence, Dos Anjos really goes to work. He moves seamlessly between head-body punching combinations, vicious kicks, hard knees and punches in the clinch and smooth takedown attempts. Dos Anjos is one of the best in the sport at getting his opponent to cover up to defend punches and then ducking under for the double-leg takedown.
The champion isn’t afraid to exchange punches in the pocket, especially near the fence. This means that he won’t be scared off his pressure game by opponents who plant their feet and try to counter. Instead, Dos Anjos throws back and gets right back to pressuring.
Even on the ground, Dos Anjos uses the fence to his advantage. He excels at pinning his opponent’s hips against the cage and then blasting them with technical and vicious ground strikes while they struggle to either wall-walk back to their feet or hunt for unlikely submissions. Dos Anjos has one of the strongest top games in the division, and it’s probably his best technical skill set.
Pace is a strong suit for Dos Anjos. Not only does he have great endurance, his constant aggression means he’s almost always in range to land something. His opponents can’t catch a break at any point.
As good as Dos Anjos is, he’s not a perfect fighter. He’s a good defensive wrestler, but his takedown defense isn’t impenetrable, and most of his career losses have come against fighters who could take him down and keep him there. While he’s sound defensively, his aggression means that he’s constantly in his opponent’s face and thus in range to be eating shots.
While no opponent has been able to avoid his pressure in recent years, there’s always the chance that Dos Anjos would struggle in a matchup that took place in the middle of the cage, rather than against the fence.
In sum, however, Dos Anjos is one of the most dangerous fighters in the division. Every piece of his game works seamlessly together in the service of channeled aggression.
Eddie Alvarez
Record: 27-4; 14 KO, 7 SUB, 6 DEC
Height: 5’9″
Reach: 69″
Alvarez is a smart, technical fighter with boatloads of experience against the best in the world and the intelligence to adjust on the fly. His game relies in equal measure on slick, powerful hands and strong wrestling skills that he applies in versatile ways depending on the opponent he has in front of him.
The former Bellator champion is happiest working on the feet. More specifically, Alvarez does his best work darting in and out of the pocket with crisp head-body combinations. He circles and then picks his spots to slide into punching range before exiting on a different angle. If his opponent drops a counter on him as he comes in, Alvarez is happy to plant his feet and exchange.
The left hook is Alvarez’s best punch, particularly when he finishes his combinations with it. When he gets stuck throwing single shots or falls into the trap of headhunting, it’s easy to underestimate Alvarez; when he’s moving and stringing together two or three shots, Alvarez is one of the better strikers in the division. While he could do a better job of setting them up, Alvarez throws punishing kicks at all levels.
The problem with all of this is defense. Alvarez has always been hittable, particularly as he comes into punching range, and his somewhat odd posture makes it difficult for him to absorb punches. This has led to many knockdowns over the course of Alvarez’s long career, though finishing him isn’t easy.
Wrestling is a strong secondary skill set for Alvarez. He does a solid, but not outstanding, job of using strikes to cover his level changes, but his sheer physical strength allows him to bull his opponent into the fence, where Alvarez can chain his attempts together.
Standard singles and doubles comprise most of Alvarez’s game, though he puts them together cleverly and finishes them with some authority. Defensively, Alvarez is nearly impossible to place on the mat and scrambles well if taken down.
On the mat, Alvarez is mostly a control artist and is generally content to work strikes and stay heavy on top. He packs legitimate power in his ground strikes when he can posture, though, and does a great job of getting to his opponent’s back in transitions.
Conversely, however, Alvarez occasionally leaves openings for his opponent’s submissions, especially if tired or hurt.
Betting Odds (via OddsShark.com)
Dos Anjos -430, Alvarez +345
Prediction
The betting odds favor Dos Anjos, and with good reason: The champion is a nightmarish matchup for Alvarez.
Dos Anjos has the defensive wrestling skills to keep this on the feet, works at a quicker pace and won’t be content to allow Alvarez to play his preferred stick-and-move game in the middle of the cage. Alvarez’s defensive wrestling skills should allow him to avoid Dos Anjos’ punishing top game, but the champion is no picnic on the feet.
This matchup comes down to Dos Anjos’ pressure against Alvarez’s ability to escape when backed up to the fence. Alvarez has slick footwork and has successfully avoided pressuring opponents before, but pressure is Dos Anjos’ wheelhouse, and Alvarez has never had to deal with an opponent who combines aggression and technical skill as effectively as the champion.
Escaping for round after round against a tireless and dangerous opponent who won’t be afraid to exchange when Alvarez throws at him is a tall order. Even if he can mostly keep this in the center, Alvarez is going to eat more than a few shots as Dos Anjos pressures him methodically and efficiently.
Dos Anjos is going to eat a few shots, and Alvarez’s power is no joke. On the whole, however, the matchup favors the champion practically everywhere. Dos Anjos takes a clear but competitive 49-46 decision.
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