It’s somewhat rare for a championship fight in the UFC to be as evenly matched as Stipe Miocic vs. Alistair Overeem figures to be at UFC 203.
Both fighters are roughly the same size. Both are on the best streaks of their careers. Both have the requisite power to end a fight with one strike.
Look at the latest odds from Odds Sharks, it tells the same story. Stipe Miocic comes in at 37-50 (minus-135), while Overeem is just a slight underdog at 21-20 (plus-105).
In a matchup this close, who walks away with the belt is going to come down to who executes their game plan better. Both fighters have a path to victory, it’s going to be the one who forces the fight down that path that has the better night.
Here’s a look at how the two stack up and some keys for each fighter to come out on top.
Keys for Overeem
For Overeem, this is a fight that’s all about range.
The Reem is lethal from the Muay Thai clinch and can make use of both knees and elbows to quickly damage an opponent if they allow him to get to the position.
His kickboxing background also makes him dangerous from long distance, as he can break down a fighter with body- and leg-kicks. The thing that makes him especially dangerous, though, is the creativity that he’s added to his striking game at Jackson-Winklejohn in Albuquerque.
Overeem has always been strong with his kicks, but the leaping front kick that he put Andrei Arlovski down with is a perfect example of some of the creative flair that changing gyms has added to his game. Throw in the fact that he’s the most accurate striker from distance on the card, per Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics, and it’s a definite advantage for him:
So Overeem likely holds the advantage in kicking range and in the clinch, but there’s a lot of distance to cover between those two positions.
Closing that gap without receiving too much damage will be a matter of footwork. Overeem wants to cut angles against Miocic that will put him against the fence where Overeem can go to work in the clinch and do damage.
Essentially, Overeem needs to avoid the pocket and either be in or out.
Once in the clinch, Overeem might want to consider working a takedown at some point. While he’s regarded for his kickboxing skills, people often forget that he has 19 submission victories in his career while Miocic has just one submission victory that came in the form of leg kicks.
Miocic’s ground game has largely gone untested. According to FightMetric, the champion has only been taken down three times in his career and never more than once in a fight.
With so much power for both fighters, a knockout at some point is likely, but earning some points in the ground game could prolong the fight and take it a decision.
Keys for Miocic
In addition to neutralizing the strengths of Overeem’s game listed above, Miocic needs this fight to take place at boxing range. The champion has one of the best jabs in the sport and needs to utilize it early and often to establish where he wants the fight to take place and set things up as the fight goes on.
In terms of wrestling, Miocic is a tireless grappler. He averages 2.09 takedowns per 15 minutes, but only does so with 34 percent accuracy. That means if he’s fixated on getting an opponent to the ground, he’s coming at his opponent until they don’t defend it.
Against Overeem, that might be a situation to avoid. The Reem’s submission game is a real threat, so if Miocic does get it to the ground it would be ideal to get his opponent’s back to the cage to limit his submission opportunities.
With both fighters having so much success on the feet recently, it’s unlikely this one goes to the ground, though.
Miocic and Overeem would most likely both spend their time in the striking department, and that means that the champion—much like his opponent—will need to try to force Overeem’s back to the cage.
The clinch might be inadvisable once Miocic gets him there, but it’s a place where he can get into boxing range and do some damage. It’s an area where Arlovski was able to do some damage against Overeem before the kickboxer got the fight back to the middle of the Octagon in the second round.
If Miocic is able to keep Overeem on the end of his jab and work him into a corner, he’s going to continue to have opportunities to land a big right or counter Overeem’s counters.
That’s been a recipe for success for him so far and should continue to be in front of his hometown crowd.
Prediction
In such an even matchup, it’s likely both fighters see success. Execution will be important, but when making the final call between these two, it could come down to some intangibles.
As Connor Ruebusch of Bloody Elbow notes, Overeem’s fight mentality can play a massive role in his fights:
Overeem is what fight fans call a “bully.”. Like your mother told you when you were young, bullies only pick on you if you don’t stand up for yourself. Fighters like Overeem are particularly dangerous when they control the pace and location of a fight–and just as weak when the tide begins to turn. Two of Overeem’s first three UFC fights ended disappointingly, with the Demolition Man having his way only to fold mentally and physically when his opponent mustered the strength to fight back.
There’s a chance that Overeem lands a big shot early and this whole thing is over before Miocic can even put a game plan out there. That’s how he even got the belt in the first place against Fabricio Werdum.
If that’s the case, Overeem will be the bully on Saturday night.
That’s why it is crucial to both fighters to get off to a strong start. When fighting a front-runner like Overeem, the first wave of momentum is crucial. Take it, and Miocic takes the fight. Fight tentatively and be forced to ride out a storm that you don’t want to see.
Either way, the heavyweight title fight at UFC 203 is going to be one well worth watching.
Prediction: Miocic via third-round TKO
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