Three things you need to know about the road ahead for the UFC’s two weightiest divisions:
First, Stipe Miocic is on the verge of making heavyweight history in his third defense of the 265-pound title, but he has no real clear-cut opponent who might make that fight feel like appointment viewing.
Second, Daniel Cormier and Jon Jones will renew their bitter blood feud at UFC 214 on July 29, in what is expected to be the biggest bout in light heavyweight history. Beyond that, however, the 205-pound division is a barren wreck—offering no appetizing immediate challenges for whoever emerges with the title.
Third, after shelling out a reported $4 billion to buy the UFC in July 2016, new owners at WME-IMG need to get this cash cow milking.
In other words, everybody’s got problems.
Luckily, you don’t have to be a matchmaking genius to see the obvious quick fix—and sometimes the obvious fix is the best one.
If all parties involved want to close out 2017 with a bang, there’s no better plausible fight on the board right now than Miocic vs. the winner of Jones-Cormier.
For an MMA community weary of superfights that never materialize and top stars like Brock Lesnar, Georges St-Pierre, Ronda Rousey and Conor McGregor that have all gone MIA from the Octagon in recent years, this fight could be the cure.
Especially for Miocic, for whom it makes the most sense of all.
The affable Cleveland native has already defeated five of the top eight fighters listed on the UFC’s official heavyweight rankings. All told, he’s gone 11-2 since debuting in the Octagon in October 2011. His most recent performances against Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem and Fabricio Werdum (Nos. 1, 3 and 4 in the rankings, respectively) all ended in first-round knockouts.
Cain Velasquez still looms as a potential future test for Miocic, but Velasquez has fought just twice (and is 1-1) since October 2013, after seeing a once-promising career derailed by injuries.
Now 34 years old, Velasquez was booked to fight Werdum at UFC 207 in December 2016, but he was pulled from the event just a week out after giving an interview with ESPN.com’s Bret Okamoto where he described experiencing intense back pain during training and admitted he used Cannabidiol to ease the discomfort.
Velasquez had back surgery in January and posted a message to fans in March saying he intends to once again challenge for the heavyweight title but couldn’t provide “a definitive timeline” for his return. Given his injury history, age and current predicament, it doesn’t seem like he should be on the champ’s radar until further notice.
Both Derrick Lewis and Francis Ngannou will eventually challenge for the title, but neither can present a particularly urgent case right away. It feels as though Lewis and Ngannou each need one more fight to allow them to grow into gripping challengers.
Any of Lewis, Ngannou or a healthy Velasquez would make a solid contender for Miocic, but the timing wouldn’t be perfect, the build wouldn’t be anything special.
Despite the fact he’s now won five fights in a row, it still feels as though Miocic has yet to develop into a high-level UFC star. What he needs is a special attraction and a fight against an easily recognizable UFC face in order to make his bones as a main event talent.
That brings us back to July’s 205-pound title fight.
Cormier has officially been light heavyweight champion since defeating Anthony Johnson at UFC 187 in May 2015, in a bout for the vacant title the UFC had recently stripped from Jones. That championship, coupled with Cormier’s wonderful turn as an on-air talent during TV UFC broadcast, has greatly increased his profile with fans.
Two years later, however, he hasn’t been fully embraced as champion, due to the fact he hasn’t defeated Jones—whom many continue to see as the rightful ruler of the 205-pound landscape.
The one time the pair fought, at UFC 182, Jones emerged with a competitive but clear-cut unanimous-decision victory.
That makes the stakes very high for Cormier in the pair’s coming rematch.
Lest we forget, however: Prior to dropping to 205 in February 2014, Cormier had amassed a 14-0 record at heavyweight. While always appearing a bit undersized, it’s easy to make the argument he was even better in the heavier weight class, where he won the Strikeforce heavyweight Grand Prix tournament as far back as 2012.
Jones, too, has always talked about an eventual move to heavyweight. The 29-year-old former champion is a giant of a light heavyweight, and he’ll turn 30 this summer. That cut to 205 pounds isn’t going to get any easier as he gets older.
Despite the fact Jones has fought just once since January 2015—and looked somewhat lackluster taking a unanimous decision off Ovince St. Preux at UFC 197—most observers expect the Cormier-Jones rematch to go much like the first.
Jones is going off as more than a 2-1 favorite, according to OddsShark.
If that bout plays out according to chalk, then Jones will have two straight wins over Cormier, and their long personal dispute will be as good as settled. It will also leave the returning Jones—still in his athletic prime and among the UFC’s biggest remaining stars—with little left to do in the weight class he ruled with extreme prejudice from 2011-2015.
Should Jones hang around to defend his title against Jimi Manuwa? Or to rematch Alexander Gustafsson (assuming Gustafsson beats Glover Teixeira this weekend)?
It’s hard to see the point in that, honestly.
But moving up to fight Miocic would be a legendary next step for a fighter nearly everyone expects to wind up a legend someday. It would also test Jones’ claim to top pound-for-pound status and—were he victorious—advance the argument you may already consider him the greatest MMA fighter of all time.
Even if Cormier manages to buck the odds and retain his title, it might make good sense for him to put a rubber match with Jones on hold for a bit. In the meantime, he could move up to challenge Miocic for the title as a standing UFC champion and undefeated at heavyweight.
Were Cormier to lose to Miocic, he could drop back down to 205 pounds and fight Jones a third time, and the final leg of series of grudge matches would still sell just fine. If he won? That would make that third fight with Jones one for the history books—no matter which weight class they decided to have it in.
Perhaps above all else, matching Miocic against the Cormier-Jones winner would be fun.
It would give both flagging divisions the opportunity to get a rub from a bona fide superfight.
It would also help the UFC create a little revenue, filling a void in its programming schedule left by too much turnover at the top and too many absentee stars.
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