The withdrawal of Alistair Overeem raises an obvious question for the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix, “Who is the favorite to win it all?” The better question, however, may be, “Does anyone still care?”
After a lackluster quarterfinals, in which the biggest highlights were Fedor Emelianenko being squished by Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva and Alistair Overeem beating Fabricio Werdum by way of standing in place, the four remaining fighters will face off this Saturday, September 10th in Cincinnati, OH.
Though the Grand Prix’s penultimate round, featuring Josh Barnett vs. Sergei Kharitonov, and Silva vs Daniel Cormier, should prove to be a hard-fought affair, one fighter stands head and shoulders above the rest. No, Bigfoot fans, I don’t mean that literally.
With a 30-5 record, Barnett is far and away the most experienced fighter remaining in the Grand Prix. With a UFC heavyweight championship, and King of Pancrase Openweight Grand Prix championship to his name, not to mention being the 2006 Pride Openweight Grand Prix Championship runner-up, “The Baby-Faced Assassin” is a seasoned veteran with some miles left in the tank.
Though the notable catch-wrestler is neither the best pure wrestler nor the best pure striker, he is easily the most well-rounded fighter of the bunch. He matches up well against the other three remaining fighters, though he may be facing his toughest challenge next.
Against Kharitonov, Barnett will be facing a strong boxer/kickboxer with great takedown defense and a perfectly serviceable ground game should he need it. Though I don’t see Kharitonov being able to totally pick Barnett apart on the feet, expect Barnett to close the distance and put the Russian up against the cage or on his back where his striking advantage will be negated.
I anticipate that Barnett will be able to control from the top and damage Kharitonov en route to a decision victory.
Against either Cormier or Silva, Barnett should have an easier time.
Cormier, a two-time Olympic wrestler, is undersized and should be fighting at light heavyweight; listed at a generous 5’11” and carrying around a significant amount of flab, Cormier easily gives up four inches and 15 pounds to Barnett. Though Barnett may not be able to bring Cormier to the ground—or want to for that matter—his skill and experience ultimately bests Cormier’s anywhere. Barnett has too many ways to threaten Cormier not to win this one.
Though Silva is certainly an imposing physical presence, I agree with Barnett himself that, “being a big guy is probably [Silva’s] greatest asset.” I wouldn’t be surprised if Silva were able to ground-and-pound his way to a victory, but I’m not sure that he can take Barnett down or beat him standing.
He isn’t vastly larger than Barnett and, in my opinion, not nearly as skilled. I see Barnett winning by an intelligently fought decision here as well.
While the remaining path to the grand prix title is no cake walk, I believe that Josh Barnett has the best combination of skills and experience to impose his will on any of the other remaining fighters. Look for him to constantly pressure, threaten with takedowns, and work for submissions.
At the end of the day, I expect to see Barnett with his hand raised, adding Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix winner to his resume. We can only hope he cuts a few good promos on the way.
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