Saturday night, June 18, 2011, Strikeforce will be concluding the first round matchups of the Heavyweight Grand Prix. Brett Rogers will take on Josh Barnett in what appears to be a lopsided bout, but it’s MMA and anything can happen.
Alistair Overeem vs. Fabricio Werdum is a fight that Overeem has wanted for a while. The first meeting, it was an overall close fight. Both were pretty much even through the fight, with Overeem edging the first.
The second it went to the ground and what does Werdum do best? Submit people and 3:43 in the second he caught Overeem with a Kimura and Overeem tapped.
Many people will state that this fight was years ago, so it doesn’t matter. Well, the fight happened so it is very relevant. Since that fight, what have both men accomplished?
Alistair Overeem: 11-4 1 NC (1-3 against top 10)
Fabricio Werdum: 6-3 (5-3 against top 10)
The level of competition favors Werdum, yes Overeem has fought more guys, but he isn’t fighting guys who help him in a way to move his stock up. Nine of the 15 opponents Overeem has faced in that span were coming off of a loss, of the six others four of those had lost in their last two-three fights.
Many people hype up Overeem and claim he is the best, and that is wonderful, except the fact that there is not a single argument “MMA” related that states he is a top five or even top seven Heavyweight. To be the man, you have to beat the man.
Fabricio Werdum, has had nine fights since the bout, most notably defeating the greatest fighter of all time, Fedor Emelianenko. In the span he defeated both Emelianenko’s (both were top 10 at the time of the fights). He defeated Antonio Silva; the only man who was not a top 10 fighter going into their fight with Werdum was Mike Kyle.
Werdum is a hard person to rank. Yes, he has beat top contenders, but 6-3 over the past three years as well as being inactive since the Fedor fight doesn’t help him. Lucky for him, the heavyweight division isn’t very deep at the moment, so his top 5 status is secure.
Who has the advantage in this fight? Who will win?
Alistair Overeem has the clear advantage in this fight. In the past year he has been active while Werdum was nursing injuries. That being said, that isn’t a reason to count Werdum out or anything, but the layoff may have some effect.
Werdum has been working extensively on his stand up, and as we all know his BJJ is some of the best in the game. Overeem clearly has the striking advantage, but Werdum has the cardio and speed advantage.
If Werdum can keep Overeem moving and not get trapped in his clinch, he can cause Overeem to gas out. If Overeem gets in tight, then odds are it is lights out for Werdum.
Werdum has been working hard on his wrestling, and when was the last time you saw Overeem fight anyone with wrestling? Exactly, you have never seen it.
If Werdum can set up takedowns, then he can really mess with Overeem’s mind. Can he hold him down? Not at first, but after a while he could truly tire Overeem and capitalize.
In this fight, it is truly a fight for Overeem to prove his standing in the heavyweight division. In a lot of eyes, if Werdum wins, it is a huge upset when in all truths it should be the opposite.
If a smart pace is pushed and he can pick his shots correctly, then Overeem will win. If he can use his speed and set up solid takedowns and tire out Overeem, then Werdum will win.
My call: Fabricio Werdum via third-round submission.
Now we will look at the 10 biggest wins in Alistair Overeem’s career.